Gene Menez revealed his Kentucky Derby 2026 picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs
By Daniel Kohn May 2, 2026 at 1:26 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images The 2026 Kentucky Derby is just hours away and the field of 19 horses is set following the surprising news that the Puma scratched on Saturday morning. The 152nd "Run for the Roses" is set for Saturday with cool and dry conditions in the forecast. Post time from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., is slated for 6:57 p.m. ET. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:
Renegade enters as the 4-1 favorite. Other contenders include Commandment and Further Ado, both at 6-1, Chief Wallabee at 8-1 and Emerging Market and So Happy, both at 15-1. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In last year's Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. Anyone who has followed his horse racing betting advice could be way up.
Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them. Sign up for FanDuel Racing, where new users get $25 in bonuses with a $5 bet:
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading the favorite, Renegade. Renegade won the 2026 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn Park, covering 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.7, and before that won the 2026 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. If we take a closer look at the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds and his full resumé, the red flags start to pile up. Before those two wins, Renegade had finished second twice, including a runner-up effort in the 2025 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. He is a late-running closer, something tough to do in the chaotic, 20-horse Kentucky Derby 2026 field.
Veteran Todd A. Pletcher trains Renegade for the Kentucky Derby 2026, but the 58-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner has not had a Derby winner since 2017. Adding to the concern is the No. 1 post, a spot that has not produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. "As a late-running closer, he will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip and is in danger of losing massive ground if he tries to pass horses on the outside on the far turn," Menez said of the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1. Not since Bob Baffert in 1997 and 1998 and D. Wayne Lukas in 1995 and 1996 have trainers been able to win back-to-back Kentucky Derby races. Bill Mott, however, may join them if Chief Wallabee is victorious on Saturday. Last year, the Mott-trained Sovereignty edged out the favored Journalsim by 1 ½ lengths on a sloppy track.
Chief Wallabee is fresh off a third-place finish at the 2026 Florida Derby on March 28. He was second at the February 2026 Fountain of Youth. He opened his racing career in January with a win at the MSW at Gulfstream Park. He is no stranger to facing Kentucky Derby favorites, having already squared off with Commandment. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who he deems the best win value in the field. Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.
