SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Owen OBrien Mar 18, 2026 at 5:17 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images In March Madness 2026, focusing on 8 vs. 9 matchups is key. No. 8 Villanova will face ninth-seeded Utah State in the first round of the 2026 NCAA bracket, while 8-seed Clemson will take on No. 9 Iowa. Many don't label 9 seeds defeating 8 seeds as 2026 March Madness upsets, but nailing those games with your 2026 March Madness picks is paramount. The Nova-Utah State matchup will see the Wildcats flying across the country to San Diego, while USU has much less travel.
The Aggies are a perfect 7-0 in neutral-site games this year, while Villanova is just 2-2. Add in that 9-seeds have won 52% of meetings versus 8-seeds, and you can see how touch picking this game could be with your NCAA Tournament picks without some help. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams to watch out for
One potential 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket buster is the Akron Zips. The 12th-seeded Zips, who have very strong guard play, certainly have the pieces to make some noise in the March Madness bracket. Their bracket draw also helps their case. They get No. 5 Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have been trending down since losing star JT Toppin (knee) for the season. They went just 3-4 in the seven games since that injury, and they enter the NCAA Tournament 2026 off a non-competitive 75-53 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. Looking a bit ahead, Akron could draw No. 4 Alabama, a team dealing with legal uncertainty surrounding second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, in the second round, opening a clear path to the second weekend for the Zips.
Another potential double-digit darling for 2026 March Madness is No. 13 Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors last made the tournament in 2016, and they knocked off No. 4 California that season. This year's veteran-driven squad got them back in the first time in a decade, and they'll face a tough Arkansas squad in the first round. John Calipari, however, hasn't been a safe choice in March in recent years. He was knocked out in the first round in two of his final three years at Kentucky before bouncing back with a Sweet 16 run in his first year at Arkansas last year. The Razorbacks could be on upset alert if they overlook this dangerous double-digit seed.
Another Cinderella team to watch for is the 13-seed California Baptist Lancers. CBU is making its NCAA Tournament debut after a strong finish to the year, winning 15 of its last 17 and taking the WAC Tournament. It has one of the nation's best scorers in Dominique Daniels Jr. (23.2 ppg), who led the WAC in points and is averaging 32 ppg over his last three games. Cal Baptist will see No. 4 Kansas in the first round, and the game will take place in San Diego -- just 100 miles from CBU's campus. Additionally, there have been seven 13-seeds to upset 4-seeds over the last seven NCAA Tournaments. Check out more of the model's 2026 Cinderella picks and full 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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