SportsLine's model simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising picks
By Daniel Lewis May 11, 2026 at 3:26 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images Major season got off to a thrilling start as Rory McIlroy defended his championship at Augusta to win his second straight Masters. Up next is the PGA Championship 2026, which tees off on Thursday, May 14 from Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Scottie Scheffler, who finished second at both the Masters and this past week's RBC Heritage, is the defending PGA Championship winner after he prevailed by five strokes at Quail Hollow last year.
The latest 2026 PGA Championship odds via FanDuel list Scheffler as the +480 favorite (risk $100 to win $480), with McIlroy (+850) and Cameron Young (+1200) among the other early 2026 PGA Championship contenders. Jon Rahm (+1300) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) are the only other golfers going off lower than +2000.
Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks, or making any PGA Championship DFS picks or One and Done predictions, be sure to see the 2026 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship field beginning to take shape, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or PGA DFS lineups.
2026 PGA Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2026: It projects that DeChambeau barely cracks the top 10 despite being one of the early favorites. DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 Masters and then had to withdraw from LIV Golf Mexico City with wrist discomfort in April. He has recorded three straight top-five finishes at the PGA Championship, but has also missed the cut twice and finished outside the top 30 two other times at this event. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects a strong showing from Tommy Fleetwood, who has longer odds at +2500. The 2025 Tour Championship winner is still looking for his first major win. He's in strong form this season, however, recording five top-10 finishes. He was contending for another top-10 at the Masters this year before a fourth-round 76 dropped him down the leaderboard. Fleetwood has strong metrics off the tee this year, but has struggled with his putting, so if he can have a better weekend on the greens, he has a great shot to be a contender. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 PGA Championship picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one going off around 60-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +480 Rory McIlroy +850 Cameron Young +1200 Jon Rahm +1300 Xander Schauffele +1600 Bryson DeChambeau +2000 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Ludvig Åberg +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2500 Justin Thomas +4000 Justin Rose +4000 Collin Morikawa +4000 Brooks Koepka +4000 Patrick Cantlay +4500 Viktor Hovland +5000 Si Woo Kim +5000 Russell Henley +5000 Tyrrell Hatton +5000 Rickie Fowler +5500 Sam Burns +6000 Chris Gotterup +6000 Robert MacIntyre +6000 Patrick Reed +6500 Hideki Matsuyama +6500 Nicolai Højgaard +6500 Min Woo Lee +7000 Jordan Spieth +7000 J.J. Spaun +7000 Sepp Straka +7000 Adam Scott +8000 Akshay Bhatia +8000 Jake Knapp +8000 Shane Lowry +8000 Joaquin Niemann +10000 Kurt Kitayama +10000 Kristoffer Reitan +10000 Jason Day +10000 Harris English +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Ben Griffin +10000 Maverick McNealy +10000 Alex Fitzpatrick +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Jacob Bridgeman +10000 Marco Penge +12500 Sungjae Im +12500 Corey Conners +12500 Alex Noren +15000 Michael Thorbjornsen +15000 Wyndham Clark +15000 David Puig +15000 Harry Hall +15000 Sahith Theegala +17500 Ryan Gerard +17500 Samuel Stevens +17500 Michael Brennan +17500 Keith Mitchell +17500 Aaron Rai +17500 Max Homa +17500 Nick Taylor +17500 Matt McCarty +17500 Rasmus Højgaard +17500 Daniel Berger +17500 Thomas Detry +17500 Alex Smalley +17500 Brian Harman +17500 Dustin Johnson +22500 Cameron Smith +22500 Pierceson Coody +25000 Taylor Pendrith +25000 Denny McCarthy +25000 Aldrich Potgieter +25000 Tom McKibbin +25000 Ryan Fox +25000 Jordan Smith +25000 Ryo Hisatsune +25000 Angel Ayora +25000 Bud Cauley +25000 Jayden Schaper +35000 Haotong Li +35000 Daniel Hillier +35000 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +35000 Ricky Castillo +35000 Stephan Jaeger +35000 Andrew Novak +35000 Max Greyserman +35000 J.T. Poston +35000 Michael Kim +35000 Max McGreevy +35000 Matt Wallace +35000 Andrew Putnam +50000 Steven Fisk +50000 Richard Hoey +50000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +50000 Lucas Glover +50000 Stewart Cink +50000 Billy Horschel +50000 John Parry +50000 Matti Schmid +50000 Patrick Rodgers +50000 Garrick Higgo +50000 Ian Holt +50000 Austin Smotherman +50000 Nico Echavarria +50000 Sami Valimaki +75000 Chris Kirk +75000 Bernd Wiesberger +75000 Johnny Keefer +75000 Casey Jarvis +75000 Dan Brown +75000 William Mouw +75000 Mikael Lindberg +75000 Jimmy Walker +100000 Braden Shattuck +100000 Bryce Fisher +100000 Jhonattan Vegas +100000 Michael Block +100000 Y.E. Yang +100000 Luke Donald +100000 Ben Kern +100000 Elvis Smylie +100000 Timothy Wiseman +100000 Jared Jones +100000 Paul McClure +100000 Derek Berg +100000 Garrett Sapp +100000 Ryan Vermeer +100000 Adam Schenk +100000 Francisco Bidé +100000 Austin Hurt +100000 Padraig Harrington +100000 Adrien Saddier +100000 Emiliano Grillo +100000 Martin Kaymer +100000 Kota Kaneko +100000 Ben Polland +100000 Brian Campbell +100000 Shaun Micheel +100000 Jason Dufner +100000 Jordan Gumberg +100000 David Lipsky +100000 Michael Kartrude +100000 Joe Highsmith +100000 Mark Geddes +100000 Davis Riley +100000 Tyler Collet +100000 Chris Gabriele +100000 Andy Sullivan +100000 Zach Haynes +100000 Travis Smyth +100000 Ryan Lenahan +100000 Kazuki Higa +100000 Chandler Blanchet +100000 Jesse Droemer +100000
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