2026 PGA Championship picks, odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm among nine who can catch leader Alex Smalley

Only two times since 2000 has the final pairing at the PGA Championship consisted of players without a PGA Tour win

NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. -- If it felt like one big game of hot potato on Saturday at the 2026 PGA Championship, that's because it was exactly that. Moving Day consisted of movement from every corner of Aronimink Golf Course, but ultimately, not where it mattered most as 36-hole leader Alex Smalley went from sharing the advantage to owning it outright after an impressive 2-under 68 moved him to 6 under for the the championship and two strokes clear of Ludvig Åberg, Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai and Jon Rahm, not to mention a whole lot of other players not far behind.

'I obviously dreamed of this as a kid, and it's funny, it's the Wanamaker Trophy, and when I was in college, I stayed in the Wanamaker dorm for three years," Smalley said. "So, my parents and I have been joking that maybe this would be a tournament that I would win just because of that kind of fact. That's just kind of something that we've joked about even before I made it out here. 

"It would be pretty cool to actually pull it out tomorrow."

The lead bounced around with the roars from the Philadelphia faithful. Each new echo brought news that a birdie was made, while every groan sent a message that an opportunity was missed. Leaderboard watching did players no favors, as a glance up at the bright white lights would read one name in one moment and another just mere seconds later.

In total, 13 different players held the lead at one point on Saturday. It ranged from Chris Kirk, who had an opportunity to shoot 62 before a four-putt double bogey on the last, to Rory McIlroy, who has climbed back from the depths of despair with rounds of 67-66 his last two days.

McIlroy's march back to the first page of the leaderboard started from four strokes on the other side of par. If he were to summit the long walk up the 18th hole at this Donald Ross design, he would be the first since Jordan Spieth in 2015 to take the season slam into the third major championship of the year. Already having six major championships and the career grand slam makes him eternal already, but add another, and the legend will only grow.

"If I had to play the last three holes at 1 under instead of 1 over, I would have got to 5 [under]," McIlroy said. "And I sort of thought if I could go out today and get to that, it would make the leaders shoot under par to either be with me or ahead of me. So, I didn't get there. I made, I guess, a couple of mistakes the last three holes. I feel like I still did enough to think I have a chance going into tomorrow."

Someone hoping to follow in McIlroy's career grand slam footsteps is Rahm, who was one of those 13 players to top the leaderboard in Round 3. He strutted up the last with the lead in hand before a three-putt from 31 feet saw him fall out of the logjam at the top. If the Spaniard ultimately reigns supreme, it would make three straight major championships -- Spieth this week, Scottie Scheffler at the U.S. Open and Rahm at The Open -- where the grand slam is in play.

Speaking of Scheffler … is he too far back? The deficit reads five after Smalley's clutch birdie on the 18th hole late Saturday evening gave the smooth-swinging right-hander even more space to operate. While the margin is crucial for Scheffler, the number of players in between him and the top is equally important, as he sits in a tie for 23rd at 1 under.

A player familiar with winning this tournament and doing so with a birdie on the last, Xander Schauffele remains firmly in this conversation as he matched McIlroy's 66 earlier in the day to stand alongside the Masters champion at 3 under. He gains confidence by the swing, and he understands that, although he may have a late tee time, that may not mean he will be the last man standing.

"Just the way the course plays," Schauffele said. "I mean, someone early goes and shoots something 6, 7 under, they might just have a chance to win the whole thing, depending on how windy it gets out there."

Those are just a handful of players who could possibly win the PGA Championship on Sunday. There are a handful more, and even that may not be doing it justice. Regardless, it's time to trim down the list, and although 54 holes may not have brought a definitive answer, these next 18 most certainly will.

Who can catch the leader and win the Wanamaker?

Odds via DraftKings

T2. Jon Rahm (-4)

Rahm is the favorite on the odds board as an inexperienced Smalley (who has never won on the PGA Tour) and three others at 4 under do not hold a candle to his résumé. The Spaniard had the putter rolling on the front nine on Saturday before it wobbled a bit coming home. Still, he hit 15 greens in regulation and should a similar diet materialize on Sunday, he will be a difficult man to beat. Rahm has that look in his eye, but there have been some late hiccups in recent big moments like last year's PGA Championship, where he failed to birdie key holes before the Green Mile. Let's see if the experience pays off. Odds: 9/2

T2. Ludvig Åberg (-4)

The best player from tee to green this week has been none other than Åberg. The Swedish superstar has the ball on a string, but unfortunately, it has wavered off line one too many times on the greens to get him any closer to the lead. The robotic right-hander's talent is undeniable. The suggestions that he could win multiple major championships are as real as day. The results, however, have not been as Sunday struggles have been the headline of his 2026 season. But that can change quickly in a big way if he keeps his wits about himself and slows things down when the heat rises in the final round. Odds: 6-1

T7. Rory McIlroy (-3)

McIlroy now has 25 major rounds of 66 or lower in his career, falling only behind Tiger Woods (28) in that achievement. McIlroy may need something similar on Sunday, as a round that low would ensure that Smalley would have to break par in order to fend off the man who sat outside the top 100 following Thursday's play. He continues to play aggressively off the tee, missing in the correct spots, but the scary sight for others is how he has putted his last 36 holes. There will be key 8-foot looks at some point Sunday, and on greens that everyone looks uncomfortable on, McIlroy looks at ease. Odds: 15/2

T7. Xander Schauffele (-3)

Schauffele is a cockroach in the best way imaginable. When everything gets blown up and bogeys are being made and clubs are being thrown, Schauffele slithers his way into contending for another major championship. At the onset of the week, the 2024 PGA champion was lacking a bit of confidence, but he has talked himself up, and his game has responded. He looked like the Schauffele of two years ago on the greens as he made seven key putts from the 5-15 foot range in Round 3. If more of those par looks are for birdie instead on Sunday, he could become the latest multiple-time PGA winner. Odds: 13-1

T23. Scottie Scheffler (-1)

Scheffler missed six putts from inside 10 feet in Round 3 with most of those coming closer to 5 feet. As such, the world No. 1 has dug himself a hole, as anything under par on Saturday when the field scoring average was perfectly par at 70.00 would have been enough to make him the threat to Smalley. Instead, he is just one among them. Scheffler is driving it well, which has opened up his iron play to occasionally shine, but he will have to balance patience and aggression in the final round like a tight-rope act. Odds: 17-1

T7. Patrick Reed (-3)

Reed genuinely loves this type of golf. No Trackman data, no mechanical overload -- just stick a peg in the ground, find a feel and try to get the ball in the hole as fast as possible. Reed was cycling through a few swing feels early in the week, and he has since settled on a potential winner as he eyes his second major win. The American has hit only 18 fairways this week and is still ranked inside the top five in approach play. If Reed were to win, one would have to imagine it would be because the driver gave the rest of his game a chance to shine. Odds: 19-1

T11. Chris Gotterup (-2)

Gotterup touched the lead with a birdie on the par-5 9th and then slowly went in the wrong direction on the back nine. He missed the fairway on No. 10, leading to bogey, missed the green long and left on No. 11, leading to bogey, and missed another green on No. 17, leading to … you guessed it … bogey. He missed a number of scoring chances in between the squares, but he kept his composure like a champion. After hitting seven greens on the front nine, Gotterup hit just two on the back. The iron play will need to remain steady if he is to threaten. Odds: 38-1

T11. Justin Rose (-2)

Rose was the pace setter with nine holes to go at Augusta National, and now, he is in the middle of the pack with 18 holes to go at the PGA Championship. His six birdies on Saturday all came from inside 12 feet, showing just how dialed in his new McLaren irons were. Those clubs were easy to blame for a sluggish couple of weeks, but Rose was adamant that it was his swing and not his equipment that was out of whack. After hitting seven fairways the first two days, he split 10 in Round 3. He will need to do that again. Odds: 40-1

T11. Joaquin Niemann (-2)

There is a lot of potential that could be fulfilled on this leaderboard, and Niemann certainly falls in that camp. A player who was labeled as the best in the world this time last year by those on LIV Golf, the Chilean's form has since fallen off, but his talent remains the same. He has been striking it beautifully all week and has the firepower to play chase, as noted by his back-to-back 3s on Nos. 15-16 to play himself into this championship Sunday. Odds: 51-1