So, how do I pick which MLB game to parlay daily? There are certainly a few factors, but obviously the starting pitcher – if not an opener – is the biggest one. And that's why I chose tonight's series opener between the Angels and Diamondbacks with a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch from Chase Field, as I'm putting my faith in Arizona's Ryne Nelson ... and the Halos stink.
Angels vs. Diamondbacks same-game parlay
- Arizona money line
- Alt Under 11.5
DraftKings SGP price: +129
I tend to like teams in their first game at home following a trip, and that's where the Snakes are. Not playing great of late but, again, just came off a six-game roadie, won two of their final three on it and also faced division leaders in the Dodgers and Mariners since the end of May. Arizona is 5-11 in that span after a season high-water mark of seven games over .500.
They're a solid team and listed at +175 for the playoffs, but they're no threat to do anything major unless former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes actually makes it back this year off Tommy John surgery. The plan was for Burnes to return right after the All-Star break, but now his season is in jeopardy following a setback.
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As for Nelson, he's an ugly 2-5 with a 5.19 ERA overall and 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA in seven home starts. So, what am I doing? For one thing, many of his analytics suggest some bad luck, and Nelson's WHIP of 1.23 is solid. And second, his past four starts at home have all been quality (2.20 ERA in 28.2 innings), which means at least six innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed.
Nelson's home numbers are skewed by back-to-back thrashings at Chase Field on April 19 vs. the Blue Jays (0.1 IP, eight earned runs) and April 26 vs. the Padres (5 IP, six ER). That Toronto start was one of the worst you will ever see. The first seven Blue Jays batters recorded hits, while the first eight reached base. Nelson became only the second pitcher in team history allow eight runs while recording one or fewer outs.
But this happens to even the best guys sometimes. For example, former Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez and Fergie Jenkins also both had a start in their careers allowing allow eight runs while recording one or fewer outs.
There had been rumblings that maybe Nelson had been tipping his pitches early in the season, but that seems largely fixed now – at least at home, because he was rocked last time out in Miami. Not too many Angels have seen him, with Mike Trout at 1-for-4 with a double and two strikeouts.
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Should Nelson fare well, the bullpen likely holds the lead. Since May 1, Taylor Clarke (1.29 ERA) and Kevin Ginkel (1.32 ERA) have posted the eighth- and ninth-lowest ERAs among NL relievers (min. 15 games). Ginkel is scoreless in seven straight games, while Paul Sewald hasn't allowed a run in 10 of his last 17 appearances, with eight saves.
It's possible Arizona could activate outfielder Lourdes Gurriel (hamstring), arguably the team's third-most important hitter, from the injured list ahead of this one, and I took that partly into account for this play but am fine even if not. Gurriel is not having a good season but seemingly has been hurt much of it. He had solid offensive numbers each of the past three seasons and was a 2023 All-Star.
The Angels might be the most anonymous team in the American League – I do this for a living and I'm not sure I can name 10 of them right now, but could probably name even fewer Rockies. The Halos are playing better of late, having won four of five, but those were all in Anaheim. The club is 12-23 on the road. Only Colorado and Detroit have more away defeats.
One bright spot in 2026 for the Angels has been 22-year-old Dominican rookie righty Walbert Urena, who is 4-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 12 appearances (10 starts) and is +4500 at FanDuel for AL Rookie of the Year. Not that Urena will win that, but the team's last winner? Shohei Ohtani in 2018. Him leaving for the Dodgers relegated this franchise to mediocrity forever seemingly. It was mediocre even with him, but was at least interesting.
Most rookie pitchers fare much worse on the road, and that's the case here as Urena is 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA in five road appearances with a .284 opponents' batting average. At home, his OBA is .168. Tonight marks his first career look at Arizona.
This is not rocket science, you should be fading the Angels away nearly every time out. Whereas I'd probably do -1 on SportsLine as a solo play at a much cheaper price, in a parlay I will not worry about that. The model has 10.3 runs scored, so I pushed it to 11.5 just in case but 10.3 even seems a tad high to me. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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