Here's why the Browns might benefit from having the easiest strength of schedule
By John Breech May 11, 2026 at 1:32 pm ET • 12 min read 
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
After three months of waiting, my favorite week of the NFL offseason is finally here: The week of the schedule release. Some people like free agency, others enjoy the draft, and I love both, but not as much as the schedule release. I WANT TO KNOW WHEN THE GAMES ARE BEING PLAYED.
The only offseason tentpole event I care about is the release of the schedule, which will be on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, so be sure to clear your calendar. The NFL will leak out games all week. That started today with the league revealing the first Sunday night game of the season. We cover that in today's newsletter, plus we break down why the BROWNS might benefit from their strength of schedule.
As always, here's your reminder to tell your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown.
1. 2026 NFL strength of schedule: Here are the 10 easiest schedules and why the Browns might benefit
With the NFL schedule set to be released in just three days, it's time to break down each team's strength of schedule. Of course, when I say easy, I don't actually mean easy, because nothing is easy in the NFL, but these are the teams that have the easiest strength of schedule based on their opponents' combined winning percentage from last season.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the 10 least difficult schedules in 2026 based on strength of schedule:
TOP 10 EASIEST SCHEDULES: 1. Browns: 125-165 (.429) 2. Saints: 125-163-1 (.434) 3. Bengals: 130-159 (.450) T-4. Colts: 134-154-1 (.465) T-4. Falcons: 134-154-1(.465) 6. Lions: 134-153-2(.467) 7. Texans: 136-151-2 (.474) 8. Titans: 137-151-1 (.476) 9. Ravens: 138-150-1 (.479) 10. Eagles: 138-149-2 (.481)
For once, things are looking up for the Browns. I'm not going to sit here and predict a playoff berth just yet, but I am going to point out three very important tidbits about Cleveland's situation.
- In seven of the past nine years, at least one team playing one of the two easiest schedules made the playoffs, so that should be good news for either the Browns or the Saints.
- The team with the easiest schedule in the AFC finished with a winning record in EIGHT STRAIGHT seasons, and the Browns have the easiest schedule of any AFC team this year. Last year, the Patriots kept the streak alive by rebounding from a 4-13 record in 2024 to go 14-3 in 2025.
- In each of the past three years, the team with the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC has had a new coach. Not only did they finish with a winning record, but they also made the playoffs (Texans with DeMeco Ryans in 2023, Chargers with Jim Harbaugh in 2024, Patriots with Mike Vrabel in 2025). This might be the year to bet on the Browns, finally!
We will examine the most difficult schedules later this week.
2. Predicting every holiday game on the schedule
As I mentioned at the top, the release of the schedule is easily my favorite event of the NFL offseason, which is why I made some predictions. That's right, I'm so obsessed with the schedule that I'm going to attempt to predict the matchups in some of the biggest games of the season.
Let's check out my predictions for Thanksgiving:
Home team: Lions Time: 1 p.m. ET game (CBS) Possible opponents: Bears, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers, Giants, Patriots, Jets, Titans Breakdown: The Lions faced a divisional opponent for three straight seasons on Thanksgiving, and it won't be surprising at all if the NFL sticks with that. After playing the Bears in 2024 and the Packers in 2025, it seems like it might be Minnesota's turn in the rotation. The Vikings would certainly be an intriguing option, especially with Kyler Murray at quarterback. The NFL also has the option of putting the reigning AFC champs in this game, and it certainly wouldn't be surprising if the league decides to go that route. Predicted opponent: Vikings or Patriots
Home team: Cowboys Time: 4:30 p.m. ET game (Fox) Possible opponents: Giants, Eagles, Commanders, Cardinals, 49ers, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Ravens Breakdown: The NFL put two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in this spot last year and the game set a regular-season record by drawing 57.23 million viewers. The Cowboys have another two-time MVP on the schedule this year in Lamar Jackson, but they won't be able to face the Ravens on Turkey Day because they take on Baltimore in Week 3 down in Brazil. So that's out. The Cowboys have played a divisional opponent in three of the past four years on Thanksgiving, so that definitely seems like a possibility. In the past 10 years, there have been only four instances when the Cowboys didn't face a divisional opponent, and in all four cases, they played an AFC team, so let's throw the Jaguars in there as a possible surprise. Predicted opponent: Commanders or Jaguars
Home team: TBA Time: 8:20 p.m. ET game (NBC) Breakdown: Over the past 10 years, the prime-time Thanksgiving game has featured at least one playoff team from the prior season, so it seems like a lock that we'll see at least one 2025 playoff team in this slot, and possibly two. The Broncos haven't played on Thanksgiving since 2009, so this would end their drought. Not to mention, Kyle Shanahan served as a Broncos ball boy when he was younger, so you have a perfect connection for a Thanksgiving night game. The Steelers could also make some sense here. With Aaron Rodgers playing in what will likely be his final season, this gives the NFL one more chance to feature him on Thanksgiving. Rodgers hasn't played in a Thanksgiving game since 2015, which is also the last time the Eagles played on Thanksgiving, so that matchup would be perfect. Predicted game: Broncos at 49ers or Steelers at Eagles
If you want more schedule predictions, don't worry, we've got that. We have predictions for the Christmas tripleheader and the Thursday night opener here. There will be nine international games on the NFL schedule this year, and I also attempted to predict all of those matchups here.
Remember, although we don't know the schedule yet, we do know who each team will be playing, and you can check out the home-and-away opponents for all 32 teams by heading here.
3. NFL schedule leaks, rumors and news
With the NFL schedule being released on Thursday, rumors and leaks will be circulating all week, and that started today. Let's break down the latest on the NFL schedule.
- Giants to host Cowboys in Week 1. The first Sunday night game of the season will feature the Cowboys hitting the road to face the Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 13 (8:20 p.m. ET on NBC). This will mark the eighth time in the past 15 seasons that the Cowboys and Giants faced off in Week 1, the most in the NFL over that span.
- The Seahawks' home opener is down to five possibilities. The Seahawks are scheduled to host both the Cowboys and Giants this year, but with those two teams off the table, there are just five options left for who the Seahawks will face in their Wednesday night home opener: Bears, Patriots, Chiefs, Cardinals and Chargers. I think it will be the Bears. I explained why here.
- Fox adds two games. The NFL put five extra games up for bidding this year. It appears that Fox just landed two of them. On a conference call Monday, Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch revealed that his network will be airing the NFL's Germany game, which will kick off on Nov. 15 (Week 10) from Munich. The Lions will be the home team in that game, and their opponent will be announced on Wednesday. Fox also added a Week 15 Saturday game. The big news there is that the NFL will play on Saturday during the final four weeks of the regular season.
- NBC also adds two games. NBC will be getting a Saturday doubleheader in Week 17. The first game will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC. After that, there will be a slight change: The second game will only be shown on Peacock, which is NBC's streaming platform. That game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET.
- RUMOR: Texans likely headed to London. The Jaguars will host two games in London this year, including one against the Texans, according to a leaked schedule. The game is scheduled for Oct. 18 at 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium. The Jags-Texans game is in Week 6 and the Jags are also expected to play at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Week 5. The Texans are just one of five teams that have yet to play an international game this decade. Of the other four (Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, Bengals), we know the Cowboys (Brazil) and Lions (Germany) are playing abroad this year, so it will be interesting to see if Las Vegas and Cincinnati also get an international game.
The schedule leaks will be coming hot and heavy all week, so keep your eyes peeled.
4. NFL veterans who could lose their spot to a rookie
When the 2026 NFL season kicks off in September, there will be plenty of rookies on the field in Week 1 making their first career start. When a rookie is on the field, it's usually due to one of two reasons: The team had a roster hole at that position or the rookie outplayed a veteran in training camp and won the job.
We focus on that second part today. Tyler Sullivan took a look at several veterans around the NFL who could end up losing their jobs to a rookie. Let's check out a few names that made his list.
- Cardinals RB Tyler Allgeier. How do you not feel bad for Tyler Allgeier? The Cardinals used the No. 3 overall pick to select Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, which effectively puts Allgeier back in the same role he was in with the Falcons. Instead of competing to be the starter, Allgeier finds himself as a complementary piece to a backfield that features a generational talent atop the depth chart.
- Giants LB Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux enters the final year of his contract after New York picked up his fifth-year option last offseason. With no ties to him beyond 2026, and the arrival of Arvell Reese to crowd the pass-rushing unit even further, Thibodeaux is not only looking at a possible diminished role, but could be dealt before we even get to Week 1.
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy. The Browns' wide receiver room was one of the least productive units in recent NFL memory. While some of the blame certainly falls on the struggles the Browns have had at quarterback, the receiver depth chart needed a massive upgrade this offseason. Given those deficiencies, it shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise to see Cleveland double-dip at the position high atop the NFL Draft, bringing in KC Concepcion with the 24th overall pick and Denzel Boston at No. 39 overall. Jeudy is coming off a modest 2025 campaign, and while he's still a productive player, the priority in Cleveland is to usher in both Concepcion and Boston, which means he'll see less work.
Sullivan's list includes seven names, and if you're wondering which other veterans might lose their jobs this offseason, you can check out his full story here.
5. NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds: Four of the top five favorites are from the NFC
We ended last week by taking a look at the odds for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year, so we're going to flip things around and start this week by taking a look at the other side of the ball.
The Defensive Rookie of the Year odds are interesting because there are only six players who are 10-to-1 (+1000) or better to win the award.
1. Jets EDGE David Bailey (+450) 2. Buccaneers EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (+550) 3. Giants LB Arvell Reese (+650) T-4. Commanders LB Sonny Styles (+750) T-4. Cowboys S Caleb Downs (+750) 6. Chiefs CB Mansoor Delane (+1000)
Zach Pereles broke down the race, and there's one player he believes has the best value: Downs.
- Why Downs is Zach's best bet. Unlike OROY, where a lineman never wins, every defensive position has a chance. An edge defender has won the award five of the last seven years, but off-ball linebacker Carson Schwesinger won it last year, and Sauce Gardner won it four years ago. No safety has won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990, but that shouldn't preclude it from happening. Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori came in second last year, and with the league's best safeties being asked to do more and more, perhaps that drought could end soon.
- Breech's early best bet: Bain. If I were going to bet on someone right now, I'd probably go with Rueben Bain Jr. The Bucs have a lot of talent on defense: a strong front seven and a defensive-minded head coach (Todd Bowles). Bain is going to see a lot of action during his rookie year, and if he can quickly understand his role, he could become a dominant force on Tampa Bay's defense.
We've got some more best bets, and you can check those out here.
6. Extra points: Aaron Rodgers hasn't signed with the Steelers yet
It's been a busy past few days in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.
- Aaron Rodgers drama continues. There was speculation Friday that Rodgers would be in Pittsburgh to possibly sign a contract with the Steelers. Well, he definitely didn't sign a new contract, and it's unclear if he was even in Pittsburgh. As of right now, the Steelers are at the same place they've been all offseason: They're waiting for Rodgers to decide on whether he's going to play this year.
- David Njoku signs with the Chargers. After visiting with the Chargers, Njoku decided to stick around. The 29-year-old agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth up to $8 million. The signing gives Justin Herbert another weapon, and it means that Njoku will be leaving Cleveland for the first time in his NFL career. The 29-year-old, entering his 10th season, had spent his entire nine-year career with the Browns.
- Vikings expected to have an actual QB battle. When Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings, there was some speculation that Minnesota might hand him the QB job, but apparently, that's not the case. The Vikings are planning to hold a "true competition" at QB, according to NFL Network. If that's the case, Vikings' training camp just got way more interesting because this should be one of the more intriguing QB battles in the NFL this year.
