Chris Mason: Emerging picture shows Reform gains as Labour counts losses in heartland seats

First things first, the headlines you are waking up to are only an emerging picture.

The morning after a general election, the result is pretty much complete by breakfast time - but that is not the case in this patchwork of elections around Britain.

So far, we have a chunk of the results around the parts of England that have had contests and no results yet from Scotland or Wales.

But nonetheless, there are trends that we can take a look at.

Reform are ahead, winning the most votes, as they did in last year's local elections.

And behind them there is the trailing pack of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party of England and Wales.

The much talked about fracturing of our politics is there to see, with none of the parties managing a runaway popularity, but votes splintering in five or more different directions.

So far, Reform can point to substantial success. They have been winning about a third of the seats that have been declared.

Labour have lost a little under half of the seats they have been trying to defend – and they are defending the most seats in this set of elections.

The parties' spin operations are up and running. At the core of Labour's argument is that elections are often challenging for governments mid term and are poor predictors of what might happen at the next general election.

This is true, up to a point – although the governing party didn't go backwards in terms of seats in 2011, 2015, 2017 or 2021 for example. And Labour are going backwards big time.

What will be key in the coming hours and days is how Labour manage these losses psychologically.

It is one thing to imagine root canal surgery at the dentist. Another to actually sit in the chair and have it done.

Take Tameside in Greater Manchester, the patch of the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.

Labour was defending 17 seats and lost 16 of them, all to Reform. That will hurt.

Not far away in Wigan, where the local MP is the cabinet minister Lisa Nandy, Labour lost all 22 seats it was defending to Reform.

Reform have won loads of new councillors, but, so far at least, not new councils. This is largely because the councils that have done their counting so far only had a third of their seats up for election.

In other words, there was a cap on how many seats any party could win or lose.

They point out that they are managing about a third of the vote, with their rivals all in the teens as a percentage of the vote.

Instead, the broad picture so far is one of Labour losing control of councils, but to no overall control rather than any one other party taking control.

Redditch, Hartlepool, Tamworth, Exeter, Tameside, Southampton and Wandsworth are all examples of this.

The Green Party of England and Wales is performing creditably so far, the Liberal Democrats are making small gains but can point to taking control of Stockport and Portsmouth councils.

The Conservatives, as expected, are going backwards – not a comfortable position to be in as an opposition party now two years on from a general election.

But they can point to denying Labour control of Wandsworth in London, although the Tories haven't managed to take it themselves.

Turnout is proving to be notably higher than recent local elections. It is, so far, running at 43%, up eight points on 2022.