Get ready for college football's best weekend of the season up to this point.
With six games involving nationally ranked teams, including a record-setting day across the SEC, Separation Saturday is upon us in the early College Football Playoff picture. Arch Manning and No. 1 Texas take on No. 14 Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, a much-anticipated game for the Manning family for obvious reasons.
Few games are more important than No. 20 Oregon's trip to No. 12 USC and No. 23 Texas A&M's tussle with No. 10 LSU in Baton Rouge, with the losers of those matchups facing an uphill climb toward the CFP.
Unbeaten and No. 4 Ole Miss is a road underdog against No. 21 Florida, which is clearly ahead of schedule under first-year coach Jon Sumrall.
Season results: Brad Crawford (19-4 straight up, 14-8-1 ATS), Chris Hummer (19-4 straight up, 11-11-1 ATS)
LSU vs. Ole Miss lived up to its billing last weekend, but Hummer was the only successful ATS pick after taking the Rebels. We both nailed the Wake Forest, Houston, and Florida State covers to highlight a money-making week. The game each of us missed? Mississippi State's impressive showing at South Carolina.
All odds via FanDuel.
College Football Power Rankings: Georgia charges to No. 2 amid shakeup in top five, Texas holds top spot Brandon Marcello
Wisconsin at No. 13 Penn State (-9.5)
Hummer (Wisconsin +9.5): This game should tell us a lot about Penn State offensively. The Nittany Lions haven't really played anyone through three weeks, but they do rank 15th nationally in yards per play. Wisconsin, even if it fell apart late against Notre Dame, is an excellent defensive team. Expect it to be hard for PSU to run the ball consistently. The question here is whether Wisconsin can score enough. The Badgers are a little one-dimensional offensively and will need Colton Joseph to create a lot with his legs to consistently move the football. A lot of the numbers are pointing toward a PSU cover in this game. But I think Wisconsin keeps it close. … Penn State 24, Wisconsin 20.
Crawford (Penn State -9.5): I slotted Penn State in my CFP projection for the first time this week for two reasons -- the Nittany Lions have the league's most favorable schedule left among unbeaten ranked teams, and Matt Campbell looks comfortable out there with a roster made up, primarily, of the former players he was in the trenches with at Iowa State. That means something for a first-year coach: roster familiarity. Now we get to figure out if Penn State's legit against an improved Big Ten foe. While this line screams take the Badgers with the points, I'm leaning toward Penn State's defense showing out. ... Penn State 27, Wisconsin 14.
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama (-12.5)
Hummer (South Carolina +12.5): This is another line where it feels like momentum is playing a bigger role in the total than reality. South Carolina had a disappointing effort against Mississippi State, and there's real concern about how the Gamecocks' defense will hold up in the secondary against the Tide's excellent group of receivers. But Alabama also has to stop the Gamecocks. That will largely be up to LaNorris Sellers. Alabama's got a top 10 rushing defense, but its pass defense has shown some holes. If Sellers can play clean -- a big if -- South Carolina will be in this game. … Alabama 31, South Carolina 20.
Crawford (South Carolina +12.5): The Gamecocks have a habit of doing this under Shane Beamer. Play awful one week, then put a scare into a nationally ranked opponent the next -- or potentially win -- on the road. There should be no pressure on South Carolina's players entering a matchup against an unbeaten ranked inside the top-10 as a double-digit underdog. Alabama's had its own issues at the back end of the defense, but I'm not sure if the Gamecocks have the quarterback who can exploit those weaknesses if he continues being gun-shy in SEC play. ... Alabama 34, South Carolina 23.
Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State (-27.5)
Hummer (Illinois +27.5): We should learn a lot about Ohio State's ability to run the football in this one. The Illini have been a pedestrian run defense this season, which should be an opportunity for an underwhelming Buckeyes rushing attack to get going. Whether or not Illinois covers likely comes down to two things: 1. Can a below-average pass defense keep Jeremiah Smith in check? 2. Can Katin Houser keep up his torrid early-season start? There's a talent mismatch here, but Illinois keeps it close enough. … Ohio State 38, Illinois 13.
Crawford (Ohio State -27.5): I moved Ohio State out of my projected Big Ten champion spot this week in favor of Indiana due to big-game worries with the Buckeyes. After losing to Texas, Miami and Indiana over his last three defining matchups, I'm beginning to question Ryan Day again -- negativity that had subsided after Ohio State's run to a national title two years ago. That said, Day rarely plays with his food against teams Ohio State should crush, and this is one of them. ... Ohio State 45, Illinois 17.
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (-5.5)
Hummer (Missouri +5.5): I'm a little skeptical of Mississippi State being that big of a favorite. This could end up being a shootout. The Bulldogs, for all their offensive strengths, don't generate pressure, ranking 137th nationally in pressure rate. That means Austin Simmons is going to have a lot of time to throw against a Bulldogs pass defense that ranks 100th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. Missouri, which arrives in Starkville with an elite run defense, will at least mitigate the rushing strength the Bulldogs have shown early this year. That means Kamario Taylor is going to have to win this game with his arm. He's capable of that. There's no doubt. But this is a game the Tigers have dominated against Jeff Lebby the last two years. Mississippi State is one of the best early-season stories, but they stumble on Saturday. … Missouri 28, Mississippi State 27.
Crawford (Mississippi State -5.5): I'm all-in on Jeff Lebby's team this season, not as a top-tier SEC finisher, but at least a squad that's going to be a nationally ranked opponent while keeping several others on the ropes. No player nationally has done more over the last two games for his personal Heisman stock more than Kamario Taylor, and that continues this week. Not sold on Mississippi State completely shutting down the run against the Tigers, so I'd be the over on this one, too. Starkville's finest should make this a raucous environment for a team that's finally given fans hope under Lebby. ... Mississippi State 34, Missouri 27.
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (-13.5)
Hummer (Oklahoma +13.5): I get it -- Oklahoma's looked terrible offensively. And maybe Georgia does completely shut down the Sooners' offense. But even if that's the case, Oklahoma plays in a style that will keep this game close. The Sooners have a top 10 defense in yards allowed per play. While the potential loss of DT David Stone hurts them, the Sooners are still equipped to make Georgia drive rather than live on explosive plays -- Georgia ranks 7th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards -- as the Bulldogs have so far this season against sub-par competition. John Mateer plays reasonably clean, and the Sooners manage to cover. … Georgia 27, Oklahoma 17.
Crawford (Georgia -13.5): Brent Venables knows his team doesn't have it this season. If that wasn't obvious at Michigan two weeks ago, it was during the Sooners' less-than-inspiring home win over New Mexico last time out. John Mateer is rattled and playing with no confidence, partly due to the lack of a rushing attack. Georgia should feast on that and continue its assault early this fall as the nation's No. 2 team. ... Georgia 31, Oklahoma 10.
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5)
Hummer (Ole Miss +3.5): Jon Sumrall might not understand why the Gators are favored, but I do. Not only is Ole Miss playing on the road, but the Rebels are taking the nation's No. 98 defense, in terms of yards per play, to Gainesville to play the nation's No. 4 offensive attack. I worry about Ole Miss' ability to stop the run -- the Rebels rank 89th nationally in yards allowed per carry -- against Jadan Baugh and a dynamic Florida rushing attack. Plus, it's going to be difficult for Ole Miss to come down from one of the most emotional wins of the season. I don't think it's a blowout, but I do think Florida squeaks out a victory. … Florida 34, Ole Miss 31.
Crawford (Florida -3.5): For those surprised the Gators are favored over a top-5 team, look no further than the rush defense numbers for the Rebels this season. Ole Miss ranks last in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, and the opposition's explosive play rate against Pete Golding's team is quite alarming. Ole Miss will reach the CFP, but this is a bad matchup on the road. Jadan Baugh eclipses 100 yards rushing for the fourth straight game and pushes forward in the Heisman conversation. ... Florida 30, Ole Miss 24.
No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-4.5)
Hummer (Iowa +4.5): Fun fact: Iowa QB Hank Brown actually ranks higher in ESPN's QBR metric than Michigan's Bryce Underwood. That's not to say Brown is better than Underwood, but it's something I'd point to when I say I'm happy to take advantage of the points with the Hawkeyes. These are two top 10 defenses entering the game, with Iowa ranking first nationally and Michigan seventh in yards allowed per play. Expect this to be an old-school Big Ten slugfest. The Wolverines have more playmakers and pull it out late, but Iowa keeps it close. … Michigan 20, Iowa 17.
Crawford (Iowa +4.5): My upset special of the week inside the top-25, Iowa goes into the Big House and wins because this is the exact type of matchup that excites Hawkeyes DC Phil Parker. His unit has allowed only 13 points this season, and Michigan's offensive woes are well-documented. We'll be talking about Iowa's CFP hopes after Week 4 when the Hawkeyes push to 4-0. ... Iowa 17, Michigan 13.
No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (-9.5)
Hummer (Texas A&M +9.5): I've picked a lot of underdogs to cover, and that trend continues here. LSU is not 10 points better than Texas A&M. The Aggies have legitimate concerns about their ability to generate explosive plays. But we've really yet to see LSU and Sam Leavitt shred a defense of Texas A&M's quality. Throw in a few critical LSU injuries, and I like Texas A&M to cover. And were this game not played at night in Death Valley, I'd be tempted to call for the outright upset. … LSU 31, Texas A&M 30.
Crawford (Texas A&M +9.5): I'm calling this one a CFP eliminator for the loser, because there's no chance a 0-2 team in SEC play after this one wins out and gets to 10-2 overall. Both quarterbacks are under the microscope for confidence reasons -- Marcel Reed's inconsistency continues to show, and Sam Leavitt has bailed too often this season on the pockets his offensive line has provided. LSU's the deeper team, and another loss from the Aggies means the campaign could begin to unravel for Mike Elko. ... LSU 34, Texas A&M 27.
No. 20 Oregon (-2.5) at No. 12 USC
Hummer (Oregon -2.5): I'd love to pick USC in this game. I went into the season thinking I would. But then I saw the Trojans struggle defensively against Rutgers. I was willing to ignore some inconsistent play early in the year for the Trojans' defense against Group of Six competition. The Trojans are young and working in a new defensive scheme. But getting torched by Rutgers for 460 yards? That's hard to ignore. If there's an area of weakness for Oregon, it's at offensive tackle, but the Trojans lack an elite pass rush (59th nationally in pressure rate) to take advantage. Expect this to be a close game. These teams will score against each other. But I just trust Oregon more than USC in this situation until proven otherwise. … Oregon 34, USC 31.
Crawford (Oregon -2.5): This one comes down to which coaching staff I trust more, and the fact that Lincoln Riley is 5-14 against ranked opponents at USC makes me question the Trojans in this spot. Toss in last week's lackluster effort against Rutgers on defense, and this could be narrative-setting for USC with a loss. Oregon is the team with more pressure coming in after losing two weeks ago at Oklahoma State. That was an atypical performance from Dan Lanning and his staff, who are itching to start Big Ten play with a victory. ... Oregon 31, USC 27.
No. 1 Texas (-3.5) at No. 14 Tennessee
Hummer (Texas -3.5): The line was moving toward Tennessee a bit earlier this week, which makes sense given what Texas has put on tape for seven of the last eight quarters. Arch Manning has been very up and down -- he completed 50% of his passes against UTSA -- and now goes up against a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 14th nationally in opposing passer rating. It sounds a little too simple to say, but I do think this game comes down to whether Manning or Tennessee true freshman Faizon Brandon plays better. Brandon struggled in his only game against Power Four competition this year, and Texas is a very different test. This is a tough environment for the Longhorns to navigate. But Will Muschamp's defense makes it a long day for Brandon, and Manning does enough. … Texas 27, Tennessee 21.
Crawford (Texas -3.5): Arch Manning is skipping all the fanfare associated with his first trip to Knoxville this week and keeping a buttoned-up, business-like approach to the SEC opener for the Longhorns. His play determines if Texas moves to 4-0 or another quarterback, Tennessee freshman Faizon Brandon, is the story nationally coming out of Week 4. Texas has a noticeable defensive edge, especially with Vols running back Desean Bishop banged up and not 100%. ... Texas 27, Tennessee 23.
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