Congress, Mexico and Canada hold a USMCA trump card

Opinion>Opinions - International The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill Congress, Mexico and Canada hold a USMCA trump card Comments: by Joel Griffith and Andrew Hale, opinion contributors - 07/18/26 1:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Joel Griffith and Andrew Hale, opinion contributors - 07/18/26 1:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied Title: USMCA Trade Talks Image ID: 26181767653509 Article: FILE - National flags representing the United States, Canada, and Mexico fly in the breeze in New Orleans where leaders of the North American Free Trade Agreement met on April 21, 2008. (AP Photo/Judi Bottoni, File)

Title: USMCA Trade Talks Image ID: 26181767653509 Article: FILE - National flags representing the United States, Canada, and Mexico fly in the breeze in New Orleans where leaders of the North American Free Trade Agreement met on April 21, 2008. (AP Photo/Judi Bottoni, File)

FILE – National flags representing the United States, Canada, and Mexico fly in the breeze in New Orleans where leaders of the North American Free Trade Agreement met on April 21, 2008. (AP Photo/Judi Bottoni, File)

President Trump in his first term declared the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement the greatest free trade agreement in human history. Indeed, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, its architect, called it the “gold standard” of free trade agreements.

Sadly, he has been replaced in Trump 2.0 by destructive appointees, including lefty economist Peter Navarro and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. Canada, our close ally, has been treated appallingly, including being labeled the “51st state.” Secretary Lutnick went so far as to say, “they suck.” As a result, anti-American sentiment in Canada is at historic levels. U.S.-Canada relations haven’t been this strained since the War of 1812.

Sadly, President Trump has followed suit, making it clear that he thinks we are better off without the USMCA. But before bidding the trade deal adieu or acquiescing to any of Trump’s proposed dilutions, Congress and its counterparts in Canada and Mexico should understand the economic repercussions of impeding free trade.

Our three legislative bodies hold the “trump card” against Trump. If the parties fail to agree on amendments during this review period, USMCA simply continues in its current form, subject to ongoing reviews, until July 1, 2036. The president may not withdraw from USMCA without congressional approval. The president is manufacturing a “now or never” fiction. The prudent course is to hold firm against any weakening of the agreement’s terms.

What we have right now is worth protecting.

USMCA and its predecessor, NAFTA, have been an economic engine for the continent since 1993. The three decades following NAFTA’s enactment produced one of the most sustained expansions of prosperity in American economic history. U.S. exports nearly tripled in inflation-adjusted terms, reaching more than $2 trillion annually. American manufacturing output — contrary to the popular narrative — rose by more than half and achieved all-time highs.

The U.S. also gained jobs in higher paying sectors as lower-paying jobs shifted elsewhere. Real median weekly wages have increased by 19 percent, after declining 5 percent in the 15 years prior to NAFTA’s implementation. Labor force participation among adults ages 25-34 increased. Foreign direct investment, partly attracted by the stability and openness of the American market, exploded.

Free trade with Canada and Mexico has been a boon for American jobs, farms and factories. For low-income families, tariff reductions represented one of the largest tax cuts in history. By contrast, Trump’s tariffs are the largest tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993. Additional tariff revenue of $185 billion in 2025 represents a more than $2,000 annual tax hike per American household. Business owners and American families bear this burden.

The president also made a consequential error early in his first term by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. The partnership would have extended a rules-based free trade framework across Pacific allies and provided a meaningful counterweight to China’s economic influence. Instead, President Trump pursues numerous rapprochement meetings with the Chinese dictator. As the Trump administration continues an unprovoked trade war with our allies, China tells them they are open for business.

Now the president is using the USMCA review as leverage to force a renegotiation on his terms. Whatever emerges from that pressure won’t simply affect his presidency. The repercussions of weakening the agreement would outlast any single administration.

Under Trump, the architects of USMCA wisely built in a 10-year renegotiation window prior to ultimate sunsetting. They understood the political dynamics of three democracies. Elections transpire, priorities shift and the conditions for productive negotiation vary. A 10-year window provides time to navigate these variables.

Between now and 2036, the United States will hold two more presidential elections. A great deal can change. And it’s difficult to imagine either major party nominating someone as reflexively opposed to free trade as the current occupant of the White House, especially with the economic fallout becoming increasingly felt by American families.

Arithmetic will bring a political coalition out into the open in favor of USMCA. Free-market advocates oppose tariffs on principle: economic liberty, competitive markets and the growth that raises living standards and produces profits.

Center-left politicians will arrive at the same destination by a different road. Slower growth shrinks the tax base, straining the social programs they prioritize, while higher deficits crowd out spending flexibility. Traditional conservatives face their own reckoning. Slower growth and a relatively smaller tax base make it harder to reduce taxes, fund defense or shrink the deficit.

These constituencies don’t share a philosophy. But they share a problem. And as the economic costs become more visible and the causation better understood, the coalition to strengthen USMCA will grow. Not everyone agrees on why free trade matters, but nearly everyone will feel the consequences of abandoning it.

The message to Canada, Mexico and the United States Congress should be simple: Don’t acquiesce to weakening the USMCA based on this summer’s deadline. In the meantime, continue litigating executive overreach in the courts. Hold the line. A better deal is within reach.

We have until 2036. We have a decade to get this right. Don’t let impatience squander the agreement we have.

Joel Griffith is a senior fellow at Advancing American Freedom Foundation. Andrew Hale is a fellow at Advancing American Freedom Foundation.