Cooper maintains 7-point lead over Whatley in NC Senate race: Poll

Campaign Cooper maintains 7-point lead over Whatley in NC Senate race: Poll Comments: by Max Rego - 08/10/26 6:11 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Max Rego - 08/10/26 6:11 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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Democrat Roy Cooper has a healthy lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, according to a new poll.

Half of the 915 respondents to the Carolina Forward survey, conducted by left-leaning Change Research, backed Cooper with less than three months before the general election.

That gave the former two-term North Carolina governor a 7-point edge over Whatley, as the former Republican National Committee chair received support from 43 percent of respondents. Cooper’s edge was outside the margin of error of 3.5 percent, while 7 percent of respondents were either unsure or said they do not plan on voting in November.

There was a clear partisan split among North Carolinians, as 97 percent of Democrats backed Cooper and 91 percent of Republicans chose Whatley.

But the Democratic nominee held a 28-point advantage among independents, with 48 percent picking Cooper, 20 percent picking Whatley and 32 percent either unsure or not planning on voting.

Cooper also held a 15-point edge among women and 35- and 20- point advantages among urban and suburban North Carolinians, respectively. Whatley, meanwhile, led by 1 point among men and by 20 points among rural voters.

The race between Cooper and Whatley to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is one of six GOP-controlled seats that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and other Democratic lawmakers have their eyes on flipping this November.

Those seats are held by Tillis, two other departing lawmakers — Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa) and John Cornyn (Texas) — and three Republicans seeking another term: Sens. Dan Sullivan (Alaska), Susan Collins (Maine) and Jon Husted (Ohio).

Of those six, the North Carolina race is the only one the Cook Political Report rates as leaning Democratic. The election handicapper rates the races in Alaska, Maine and Ohio as “toss ups.”

Democrats, at a 53-47 disadvantage in the upper chamber, need to flip a net of four seats to retake the majority, as a 50-50 tie would give Vice President Vance the deciding vote on party-line splits.

Cooper, who served as North Carolina attorney general before his eight years in the governor’s mansion, has won each of his six general elections in the state dating to 2000. The North Carolina political mainstay held a net favoritability of 2 points among respondents to the Carolina Forward survey.

By contrast, 37 percent of respondents viewed Whatley unfavorably, 29 percent viewed the GOP nominee favorably and 17 percent had never heard of him.

As of the end of June, Cooper’s campaign had roughly $17.2 million more on hand than Whatley’s, according to the Federal Election Commission.

But also in June, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority ruled the federal government cannot limit how much political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates, in a case Vance brought during his time as an Ohio senator.

Since then, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has announced a $17 million summer advertising campaign to boost Whatley and attack Cooper, the first stage of a $71 million investment in North Carolina.

The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC also revealed last month it will spend $11 million in television ads concerning the race, part of a $42 million television investment in the purple state.