The Chicago Cubs are headed to the playoffs for the second straight season and will look to lock up the No. 4 seed, just as they did last year. For now, Thursday's 2-1 win over the Marlins sealed the postseason berth.
In 2026, they won the Wild Card Series at home in three games, advancing to the NLDS, where they lost in five games to their division rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are the NL Central champs again, and the playoff journey for the Cubs looks pretty similar to last season.
As noted, this is the second straight time this bunch has made the playoffs as a wild card on the heels of a four-year rebuild by club president Jed Hoyer. That rebuild followed arguably the best stretch in franchise history, as the Cubs went to three straight NLCS and won the 2016 World Series for their first title since 1908.
Could this team break through in similar fashion?
Here are three reasons the Cubs could make a deeper run this time around.
2026 MLB playoff picture: Standings, bracket, clinching scenarios, postseason projections as Padres stay hot Kate Feldman
1. Balanced and loaded offense
The Cubs lead the majors in runs scored and slugging percentage while in a three-way battle atop the on-base percentage leaderboard. They are second in home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong seems destined to win National League MVP here in his 40-40 season (the seventh in MLB history), but it isn't just him powering the offense. Alex Bregman has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, Seiya Suzuki is very productive and even the lower-order guys are capable of doing some serious damage on any given night. Plus, the Cubs' bench is one of the best in baseball. Pedro Ramirez, Matt Shaw, Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor have all had plenty of big moments for this Cubs team and none of them are considered regular starters. The catching duo of Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya has combined for over 3 WAR as well.
It's a well-rounded offense that doesn't need to rely on home runs for big games but can also beat you with the homer when called for. There are three strong stolen base threats, too.
2. Best defense in baseball
The old school defensive metric was fielding percentage, but we know now that you need to factor in range when it comes to defense. A defender with great range, for example, is going to end up with more opportunities and, as a result, might get credited with more errors than the plodding defender who can't even get to the balls in play.
With the Cubs, it's a have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too situation, because they have exceptional range and still make very few errors. In fact, they have the fewest errors in baseball, along with the best fielding percentage. Stats that factor in range have the Cubs as the best defense in baseball, some by a mile. Outs above average, on Baseball Savant, for example, has the Cubs with 72 and the Diamondbacks are second with 44. Only one other team is even above 30, and 14 teams are in the negative. The Cubs are just blowing everyone else out here.
It starts with PCA, as he rates out as the single best defensive player in baseball on outs above average. Elsewhere, Michael Busch at first base rates in the top five, at second Nico Hoerner sits in the top 10, Bregman is second among third basemen, Dansby Swanson is fourth at short, Suzuki and Ian Happ are quality corner outfielders and the catching tandem is solid behind the plate.
It's a tour de force on defense.
Of course, if the Cubs are so good at offense and defense, why don't they have the best record in baseball? Well ...
3. Upside in arms
It's remarkable to view it this way, but the Cubs lead the majors in position-player WAR and rank dead last -- yes, even after the Rockies, A's and Nationals -- in pitcher WAR.
If that sounds like the Cubs are going to be bounced from the playoffs after their pitchers blow leads in multiple games in a series, well, don't be surprised. If the pitchers can hold things together, though, the Cubs could well win another banner in a year ending in 6.
Where could things break right? Here's a possible rotation.
- Clay Holmes had mostly been great since being acquired at the trade deadline. He had a four-start stretch in August during which he had a 0.36 ERA. In three September starts, though, he's been brutal.
- Kevin Gausman is capable of looking like a frontline starter.
- Matthew Boyd has unraveled in the late innings in several recent starts, but he's been really good in the first five innings for the past month.
- David Peterson has a 2.86 ERA in his last 66 innings after an excellent start on Sunday. That's perfectly serviceable for a No. 4 playoff starter.
- Shota Imanaga shows flashes of being very good with bad starts mixed in. He's now been good in each of his last four starts.
The Cubs can find four starters from that bunch. What about the bullpen?
- Players who have been starters at some point who could (or already do) come out of the bullpen: Colin Rea, Javier Assad, and Aaron Civale. Whoever doesn't make the playoff rotation from the above fivesome works, too. Civale in particular has been excellent in multi-inning relief duty and here's where there's an avenue to limit the looks lineups get at the above starters.
- Justin Steele is on his way back from Tommy John surgery. He was dominant in two innings in his last rehab outing with five strikeouts.
- Ryan Zeferjahn has good stuff and needs to harness it.
- Daniel Palencia has been a beast before and has been on a very promising run lately.
- Jacob Webb has fallen apart, but he had a 0.00 ERA in 24 ⅔ innings from June 24 to Aug. 21. Could he get it back?
- Lefty Ryan Rolison has a 3.02 ERA and 1.1 WAR as a Swiss Army knife reliever this season and deserves a big role.
That's 13 guys without even mentioning Caleb Thielbar or the injured Trent Thornton. MLB playoff teams are maxed at 13 pitchers, so not everyone here can make it, but I'd be shocked if anyone not listed made the playoff roster. And there's upside in this group along with the volatility.
There are far too many problems to believe everything can be solved, but there's an avenue here where the Cubs find some semblance of a pitching staff for the postseason. If that's the case, the proverbial sky is the limit.
Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments
