Duke vs. TCU odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Saturday

The ninth-seeded Texas Christian Horned Frogs meet the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region on Saturday. TCU advanced with a 66-64 win over eighth-seeded Ohio State on Thursday, while Duke survived with a 71-65 victory over 16th-seeded Siena. The Horned Frogs (23-11), who finished sixth in the Big 12 at 11-7, have won seven of their past eight games. The Blue Devils (33-2), who won the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season (17-1) and tournament titles, have won 12 games in a row. Duke is without Caleb Foster (foot), while center Patrick Ngongba (foot) is questionable. 

Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 5:15 p.m. ET. Duke is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest TCU vs. Duke odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any TCU vs. Duke picks, check out the TCU vs. Duke predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated TCU vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Duke vs. TCU:

TCU vs. Duke spread:    

Duke -11.5

TCU vs. Duke over/under:    

140.5 points

TCU vs. Duke money line:    

Duke -787, TCU +535

TCU vs. Duke picks:    

TCU vs. Duke TV:

CBS

Top TCU vs. Duke predictions

After 10,000 simulations of TCU vs. Duke, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (140.5 points). The Over has hit in two of the last three TCU games, and in six of the last 10 Duke games. TCU is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games. Duke, meanwhile, is 6-4 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Horned Frogs to have two players score 11 or more points, including David Punch, who is projected to score 11.9 points. The Blue Devils are projected to have three players score 11.4 points or more, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 25 points. The model is projecting 148 combined points. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Duke vs. TCU picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Duke vs. TCU 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. TCU, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the TCU vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.