Lisa Kudrow in 'The Comeback' Erin Simkin/HBO A NOTE FROM SCOTT We are exactly one month away from the start of voting to determine the nominees for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards — it will run June 11-22, with the nominations announcement to follow on July 8 — so now seems as good a time as any to share my latest read of the race.
For this update, I have done a deep-dive into 35 categories spanning programs — narrative, nonfiction, variety, reality and animation — as well as performances, hosting and casting. You won’t find as thorough a breakdown anywhere else.
This sort of analysis is only possible because, at this point, virtually every contender has “shown their cards.” We’ve seen if they have the goods on screen; we’ve learned in which categories they plan to campaign; and we’ve gotten a pretty good sense of just how aggressively and effectively they are hitting the campaign trail. (There are now multiple FYC events almost every night.)
In recent years, a small handful of shows have accounted for a large share of the nominations. As you can see below, I expect that trend to continue this year, with many of the big noms spread between HBO Max’s The Pitt and Hacks; Apple TV’s Shrinking; FX/FX on Hulu’s Love Story; and Netflix’s Beef.
But there are still plenty of spots up for grabs. Remember last year when Somebody Somewhere came out of nowhere to land a supporting actor nom for Jeff Hiller and a writing nom too? Hiller even went on to win over Han Solo and Sal Saperstein! In other words… it ain’t over ’til it’s over.
PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do.
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Best Drama Series
Image Credit: Ed Araquel/AMC Frontrunners 1. The Pitt (HBO Max, s. 2, 15 eps., 1/8/26-4/16/26) 2. Pluribus (Apple TV, s. 1, 9 eps., 11/7/25-12/24/25) 3. The Diplomat (Netflix, s. 3, 8 eps., 10/16/25) 4. Task (HBO, s. 1, 7 eps., 9/7/25-10/19/25) 5. Slow Horses (Apple TV, s. 5, 6 eps., 9/24/25-10/29/25) 6. Paradise (Hulu, s. 2, 8 eps., 2/23/26-3/30/26) 7. Stranger Things (Netflix, s. 5, 8 eps., 11/26/25-12/31/25) 8. Landman (Paramount+, s. 2, 10 eps., 11/16/25-1/18/26)
Major Threats 9. Fallout (Prime Video, s. 2, 8 eps., 12/16/25-2/3/26) 10. The Gilded Age (HBO, s. 3, 8 eps., 6/22/25-8/10/25) 11. The Morning Show (Apple TV, s. 4, 10 eps., 9/17/25-11/19/25) 12. The Madison (Paramount+, s. 1, 6 eps., 3/14/26-3/21/26)
Possibilities 13. Industry (HBO, s. 4, 8 eps., 1/11/26-3/1/26) 14. The Testaments (Hulu, s. 1, 10 eps., 4/8/26-5/27/26) 15. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (HBO, s. 1, 6 eps., 1/18/26-2/22/26) 16. Euphoria (HBO, s. 3, 8 eps., 4/12/26-5/31/26)
Long Shots 17. The Audacity (AMC, s. 1, 8 eps., 4/12/26-5/31/26) 18. The Night Manager (Amazon Prime, s. 2, 6 eps., 1/1/26-2/1/26) 19. The Boys (Prime Video, s. 5, 8 eps., 4/8/26-5/20/26) 20. Matlock (CBS, s. 2, 16 eps., 10/12/25-TBD)
