Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Managing expectations for Gerrit Cole, Tarik Skubal returns

Chris Towers highlights both upside and risk on the waiver wire

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but it sure looks like Gerrit Cole is going to make his long-anticipated return from Tommy John surgery this week. After sending Elmer Rodriguez back to Triple-A Monday, the Yankees have an open spot in their rotation for Friday's game against the Rays, and wouldn't you know it, that exactly lines up with Cole getting five days of rest after his most recent minor-league rehab start. 

That most recent rehab start was incredibly promising, as I wrote in Monday's newsletter. And, with the rather immediate success of some other high-profile veteran pitchers returning from injuries like Shane McClanahan and Zack Wheeler, we should expect Cole to hit the ground running and immediately pitch like an ace, right? 

He might! Veteran pitchers returning from long absences might be better suited to do exactly that – we also saw Brandon Woodruff dominate after he returned from a long layoff last season. Of course, if you can remember back to Woodruff's return, you can also surely remember the prevailing narrative of last season, about how it wasn't smart to bet on pitches in their returns from serious injuries, given the relative failures of Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, Spencer Strider, Walker Buehler, and even McClanahan himself, among others. 

Wheeler and McClanahan are, in many ways, outliers this season. The specific injuries they've overcome are a lot tougher than what Cole has been through, which is just a fairly straightforward Tommy John procedure, which makes their success even harder to wrap your mind around. Relatively speaking, Cole's recovery from Tommy John surgery has been smooth sailing, but even so, a return to form immediately is never guaranteed. Cole is more well situated than either McClanahan (who was coming back from a second UCL reconstruction, in addition to surgery to fix nerve issues) or Wheeler (who had Thoracic Outlet surgery last fall). 

I like Cole's chances to hit the ground running, especially after seeing the quality of his stuff during his most recent start at Triple-A – as noted Monday, his velocity was actually higher than in either 2024 or 2023. But there's no guarantee. Alcantara's stuff looked awesome early last season, and it took him several months to find the form that made him a must-start Fantasy option. The stuff can often come back before the command after these long layoffs, so don't be surprised if there's a bit of a feeling-out period for Cole, at least. 

That's not to say you shouldn't be excited about his return. You should be. Just don't be surprised if he's not immediately a must-start pitcher when he is back in the rotation for the Yankees. History suggests it might take some time. 

Before we get to the rest of what you need to know about from Monday, some quick thoughts on The NanoScope. 

For those who don't know, that's the new form of arthroscopic surgery Tarik Skubal underwent to remove loose bodies from his elbow. The innovation here is that the surgery can use a smaller needle and scope than typical surgeries, which has the potential to significantly lower recovery time for relatively minor surgeries like the one Skubal had a few weeks back – you can read more about the particulars in this article from The Athletic. 

It's a relatively untested surgery for baseball pitchers, which introduces some inherent uncertainty, but we're getting a couple of very high-profile test cases this season. Skubal is the first, and he'll be followed by Blake Snell, who is set to undergo the procedure in the coming days. Skubal had the surgery less than two weeks ago, but is already throwing off a mound. This is a surgery that typically carries a best-case scenario return to play timetable for pitchers of around two months – Snell missed 57 days in 2019 – but Skubal told reporters Monday he's already feeling better than he has all season after throwing off a mound twice in recent days.

Skubal is still without a specific timetable to return, and he hasn't begun throwing at full effort or velocity yet. But the fact that he's throwing off a mound less than two weeks after elbow surgery is remarkable, and speaks to how this procedure could really change the timetables we've gotten used to, at least for some elbow surgeries. And it sure seems like Skubal could be back in at least six weeks or less, a timetable I would have thought more or less unthinkable before. 

And it could also mean Snell is back around the beginning of July if indeed he does have the same surgery. Neither is a guarantee – nor do we know whether this accelerated timetable may carry added complications we aren't seeing yet. But the fact is, we've gone from potentially losing Skubal and Snell for half a season or more to potentially having them back before the All-Star break. 

I'm still a little wary of how this is all going to work out – I guess I'm just a worrier, that's why my friends call me "Whiskers" – because we could be in truly uncharted territory with these two pitchers.

Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB:  

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Monday's action: 

J.T. Ginn, SP, Athletics (40%) – Ginn went from potentially putting his name into the history books to absolute heartbreak in a span of about two minutes Monday night. He took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, and then went from allowing a leadoff single to Adam Frazier to allowing a walk-off homer to Zach Neto in the span of six pitches. It was a heartbreaking way to lose a game, but that shouldn't overshadow the fact that Ginn was impressive yet again, striking out 10 over eight-plus innings with a walk and the two hits (and runs) allowed. Ginn is throwing his sinker and slider less this season, but both were exceptional for him Monday, generating 11 of his 14 whiffs; the changeup wasn't quite as effective today, but it has generally been his best pitch this season. Ginn hasn't shown much strikeout upside before this one, but he does have a 2.73 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just eight walks in 26.1 innings in May, with a pair of eight-inning outings. I think this is likely just a hot-hand situation and he isn't some kind of emerging ace, but he's been good enough lately to be worth adding just to see where he takes it. 

Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Diamondbacks (60%) – Big production early in a player's career is always nice to see, but first and foremost, you just want to make sure they aren't overmatched. And Waldschmidt certainly hasn't looked overmatched so far, with a very manageable 23% strikeout rate through his first 11 games. And the production is starting to come, as he went 3 for 3 with a walk, two doubles, two runs, and two steals Monday for his first truly big game as a major leaguer. The lack of production so far has kept Waldschmidt's roster rate from really climbing, but I do think a 60% rate is still a bit too low. There's a very fantasy-friendly skill set here, as he reminded us Monday. 

Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (29%) – You can't just treat Crews like any old prospect getting their call up. He's logged nearly 500 career plate appearances at the major-league level and has shown us, effectively, nothing to get excited about as a hitter. Maybe slightly above-average raw power, but with little sign that he's capable of consistently optimizing it; decent plate discipline, but not enough to overcome middling contact skills and the lack of pop. He's fast, at least, but that hasn't been enough to make him a fantasy-relevant player, let alone a standout. On the other hand, he just turned 24 less than three months ago, and while his overall numbers aren't much to write home about at Triple-A, he's been an .866 OPS bat in May and is at least showing signs of the power that once made him such a lauded prospect that he almost went No. 1 overall in the draft ahead of Paul Skenes. In Triple-A this season, he's sporting a 94.7 mph average exit velocity and 109.3 90th percentile EV, elite numbers that dwarf anything he's managed in the majors so far. He's doing it, of course, against minor-league pitching, and he still isn't making as much contact or steering the ball in the air to the pull side to maximize his power, but it is at least something to be excited about. There has been little of that in Crews' career before this, so let's see if he can take advantage of his latest opportunity as the Nationals get set to call him back up. 

Walbert Urena, SP, Angels (25%) – Urena is kind of like Ginn: A pretty good groundball pitcher who is learning how to do everything else. The biggest hurdle is still the control, because he has an untenable 13.1% walk rate even after three walks in his past two starts. But he has good stuff and should miss more bats as he learns how to sequence and command better, especially if his changeup can be as good as it was Monday, when he generated 12 swinging strikes on 24 swings with it. For now, Urena is more interesting than good, but in deeper leagues, it could be worth getting in on the ground floor with an interesting pitcher with his kind of stuff. 

Zach Thornton, SP, Mets (4%) – The Mets have more lauded prospects in the high minors, but Thornton is the one actually pitching the best right now, and so he's the one getting the call to take Clay Holmes' spot in the rotation. Thornton doesn't pop on the radar gun – 90.9 mph with his four-seamer in Triple-A – but he has a legit six-pitch arsenal that he commands well and generates pretty solid movement with, enough so that the four-seamer can actually miss some bats. You could squint and see a Parker Messick outcome here, where he mixes pitches and commands everything well enough to overcome a lack of plus stuff, but Messick sits at least two ticks up from Thornton and is generally just an outlier in a lot of ways, so it's not a comp that seems especially fair. Thornton is probably a pretty low upside pitcher, all things told, but he has missed a decent number of bats in the minors to go with excellent control, so he's a pitcher to keep an eye on when he makes his debut Wednesday, if not one to run out and add right now. 

Monday's standouts

Framber Valdez, Tigers vs. CLE: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – The reason I can't bring myself to be too worked up about Valdez's struggles is because there's almost always a stretch like this at some point during every season. He has had a 10-start stretch with an ERA of at least 5.05 in 2023, 2024, and 2025, so his current 4.58 mark isn't even as bad as it could get. He did close out last season with his worst stretch, so you could point to that as a reason to be more concerned than normal, but his track record suggests he'll figure it out before long. I'm buying low. 

Shane McClanahan, Rays vs. BAL: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – One problem with McClanahan is that, because the Rays are pretty insistent on limiting him to five innings more often than not, the margin for error is slimmer than it is for other similarly talented pitchers.  Three runs in six innings is a quality start; three runs in five innings is a 5.40 ERA. He was even worse than that in this one, but not in any way that looks especially concerning. 

Nick Lodolo, Reds @PHI: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K – Lodolo also struggled in 2024 when he came back from a blister, and he never ended up recovering from that, so I understand if you're concerned. But here's what I'm looking at: When Lodolo struggled then, he never had the feel for his curveball and had to alter his grip to throw it, which affected the movement profile of the pitch. That hasn't been an issue so far, so I'm mostly willing to write his struggles off to rust more than anything he can't overcome. 

Ryan Weathers, Yankees vs. TOR: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – The hard contact has been hovering above Weathers like a haunted spirit all season, and it finally caught up to him in this one. The strikeout and walk rates are elite, and more often than not, will be enough for him to be productive. But there might be some Jesus Luzardo to his profile these days, where the bad starts might be especially bad, even if you're generally happy to have him in your lineup more often than not. For what it's worth, his xERA was over 4.00 before he was tagged for two homers in this one. If you're looking for a reason to sell high on Weathers, that would be the main one. 

Sonny Gray, Red Sox @KC: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Gray is back to missing bats, after he sported a strikeout rate near 10% through his first six starts of the season. I haven't really seen a good explanation for why he has been missing so few bats before this one – he's throwing a cutter more often this season, and that isn't a great bat missing pitch for him – so I'm open to it just being a small-sample size fluke, especially with 15 strikeouts over his past two starts. I do still view Gray as a sell-high candidate given the generally declining skill set over his past few seasons as he reaches his late-30s, but if he can keep up the past few starts, that becomes less of a concern. 

Max Meyer, Marlins vs. ATL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – I never thought the non-slider arsenal would be good enough for Meyer to be a reliable Fantasy option, but the addition of a sweeper really seems to have changed things for him. His slider remains an all-counts weapon that he can throw to batters of either handedness, but now the sweeper gives him a new, less predictable look in putaway situations. It's all working exceptionally well right now, and while I don't buy Meyer as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, I don't necessarily think he's someone you need to get rid of before the bottom drops out, either. 

Robbie Ray, Giants @ARI:  4.1 IP, 11 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Ray speculated that he might have been tipping his pitches, which would certainly make sense – he somehow allowed a grand slam on his sixth pitch of the game Monday, which feels impossible. It's almost always an oversimplification to say a bad start is just regression happening all at once, but I will point out that Ray's 4.12 ERA is now a lot closer to where his peripherals have been than his 3.04 mark entering the start. 

Trevor Rogers, Orioles @TB: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – I think I still want to keep Rogers stashed on my bench if I can, but once you reach the point with any pitcher where you just can't trust them in your lineup under any circumstances, it's hard to make any case for keeping them around. The case for Rogers is that he was awesome last season, but the thing about that is … it's basically the only time he's been useful as a Fantasy option since 2021. In that context, 2025's stretch of dominance is the clear outlier, and the struggles in 2026 are the return to form. I don't necessarily think it's all as simple as that, but if you've given up hope entirely, I can't really argue with you. You just have to hope he starts pitching better quickly, and I don't know how long even I can hang on, as patient as I'm inclined to be.