Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Replacing Tarik Skubal means chasing upside arms and buy-low pitching targets

Injuries force Fantasy managers to assess risk, upside and pitching value

You aren't replacing Tarik Skubal. But you have to replace Tarik Skubal. This is the problem when you lose a superstar player like Skubal, because there's no way you can actually replace him, but you also can't just give up on the season. You have to try to make the best of it, especially since the surgery he's undergoing will likely still see him back on the mound at some point this season.

When will that be? Well, you can look at other pitchers like Hurston Waldrep, who had surgery to clear up loose bodies in his elbow in February and isn't even close to returning, and surmise that this probably won't be a one or two month timetable. My research suggests it's likelier to be something like 100 days before we see Skubal back in the majors, which likely means an August return. Could be earlier, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

So you've gotta find a way to replace him. You could just go out and pay full price for an ace, but then you're going to be making yourself weaker somewhere else, and that's a tough balance to strike. Your best bet is going to be to scour the waiver wire for upside while trying to target buy-low candidates at pitcher who could be had for a relatively low cost but who could potentially make a big difference.

Of course, you're going to be picking from pitchers with warts. They wouldn't be available on the wire or for relatively cheap via trade if they were surefire bets. You're going to have to take some chances that one or two pitchers overperform if you're going to have any chance to replace Skubal. 

Before we get to the rest of today's newsletter, let's take a look at six starting pitchers to look for on the waiver wire and five to try to trade for who could help fill the Skubal-shaped hole in your lineup. 

Five starting pitchers to consider adding

Jared Jones, Pirates (49%) – Jones is working his way back from an Internal Brace procedure on his right elbow, and the track record for that surgery is spotty. But he's a young, talented pitcher who was apparently already hitting triple digits in his first rehab start, so let's bet on some upside here. He's probably back sometime in mid-to-late May. 

Janson Junk, Marlins (32%) – There's a limited ceiling with Junk, because he won't miss many bats and – as Monday's 1-0 loss to the Phillies reminded us – he probably won't win many games. But the control specialist has seen an uptick in stuff this season and is pitching well. He won't sustain a 2.82 ERA for long, but even if his ERA is three-quarters of a run higher, he'll still deserve to be rostered a lot more highly than he currently is. 

Luis Severino, Athletics (55%) – We've seen an uptick in Severino's stuff since spring training, but you couldn't really notice it when he was struggling to throw strikes early in the season. But he has pitched into the seventh inning in consecutive starts, mostly because he has gone from walking 20 in his first five starts to just three in the past two. If he can keep that up, I think Severino can be a useful pitcher, especially away from Sacramento. 

Roki Sasaki, Dodgers (41%) – I haven't been a big fan of Sasaki's during his time in the majors, but I think we're starting to see some interesting signs. He's a ways away from being anything more than interesting, but the decision to start throwing his splitter 4-5 mph harder two starts ago has led to the best stretch of his MLB career so far, including nine strikeouts and just three walks in 11 innings. He remains a work in progress, but Sasaki is showing the ability to throw strikes and generate whiffs for the first time in the majors. There might be something here. 

Braxton Garrett, Marlins (9%) – Most Fantasy players (and maybe some analysts) are expecting Robby Snelling to get the call if (and when) the Marlins turn away from Chris Paddack, but Garrett looks a lot more likely – he's already on the 40-man roster, and Snelling isn't. Snelling is the more interesting option, for sure, but Garrett has been a pretty good pitcher at the MLB level in the past and is throwing a bit harder since coming back from Tommy John surgery, so I think there's certainly some appeal here. 

Five trade targets

Logan Webb, Giants – It's just as simple as: I don't think he's completely lost it. Webb has to pitch better than he has, but we've seen stretches like this from him before – just because this one is happening at the beginning of a season rather than, say, from July through August (he had a 5.40 ERA over a seven-start stretch last summer), doesn't mean it's any more worrisome. Webb always finds a way to get back on track, and I see no reason to think he won't do so again this time. 

Cole Ragans, Royals – I'm less certain Ragans will figure it out, both because he has a shorter track record of success than Webb and because there are legitimate red flags in his profile. Two starts ago, he just didn't throw his slider at all, and in his most recent one, he barely threw any of his non-fastball pitches, a sign that something isn't right. The question is whether that something is an injury or a simpler mechanical fix. Seeing as his velocity is still strong and the strikeout rate is still there, I'm willing to bet on the upside here, even if Ragans is less of a sure thing than Webb. 

Eury Perez, Marlins – Perez is going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball at some point. He isn't that right now, of course, and he might not get there this season. But the stuff absolutely plays, and it's about finding consistency with his command to take advantage of it. That light is going to flick on at some point, and it might happen soon enough for him to take off like a rocket. If you're looking for someone who might at least theoretically be able to replace Skubal at a discounted price, Perez seems like one of the best candidates. 

Kyle Bradish, Orioles – This one is kind of in between Ragans and Webb. Bradish doesn't have Webb's long track record, but he also doesn't necessarily have the tangible red flags Ragans does. Bradish's biggest issue has been command, which usually means he just has to … pitch better. He needs to execute better, but the stuff here still seems strong enough that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll figure it out. Especially since, at least judging by the comments we're receiving every day, the price on Bradish could be extremely cheap right now. 

Spencer Strider, Braves – I'm a noted Strider skeptic, but I think there might be some room to take advantage of unwarranted panic following his first start. It was bad, and the underlying stuff metrics looked awful, but … that's probably at least in part because he was pitching at Coors Field. And it might be in large part because of Coors Field, which dramatically changes the movement profile of every pitch type more than any venue in baseball. My expectations for Strider aren't high, but I still think he could be a top-30 pitcher, and his price could be lower than it should be after a debut we really shouldn't take anything from. 

Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB:

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Monday's action: 

Tony Santillan, RP, Reds (23%) – At some point, the Reds are going to have to do something with Emilio Pagan. Maybe he just isn't healthy, but he's now allowed runs in three of his past four outings and has a 6.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the season. Maybe he just isn't fully healthy after his earlier hamstring scare, but whatever it is, he just isn't getting the job done right now. Santillan would seem to be the likely next man up for the Reds if they move off Pagan, though Graham Ashcraft has been a solid high-leverage weapon for them and could factor in, too. I'd bet on Santillan getting the first crack to close if Pagan is moved out of the role. 

Trevor McDonald, SP, Giants (1%) – That's a hack of a season debut for McDonald, who tossed seven one-run innings against the Padres. He gave up one solo homer in the first inning, but shut them out from that point on, eventually allowing just two hits while striking out eight and walking none. The minor-league track record doesn't back up the idea that McDonald is a viable Fantasy option, and he missed a merely decent 10 bats on 81 pitches with a mostly two-pitch mix, so I don't think he needs to be added outside of the deepest Fantasy leagues right now. 

Ty Madden, SP, Tigers (1%) – I don't see much in Madden's track record to suggest he's someone Fantasy players need to take note of – we're talking about a guy with  7.29 career ERA in 100 innings at Triple-A, after all. But it feels like it would be an oversight to not mention him here when he threw five shutout innings with seven strikeouts and zero walks while replacing Skubal Monday. The 26-year-old pitched well and even generated a decent 11 whiffs on 81 pitches against the Red Sox. That said, I don't see much reason to think he's likely to buy into this in anything more than the deepest leagues absent more evidence. 

Monday's standouts

Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers – Heck of a way to make up for lost time. There's always concern when a player misses the start of the season, especially with a hand injury, but Chourio made his return from the IL Monday and went 4 for 4 with a walk and a couple of doubles, both of which came off the bat at 108 mph or higher. It's nice to see Chourio shaking off the cobwebs like that, and it's important to remember that Chourio is still just 22 and could unlock some new upside this season, too. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers @HOU: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I don't know if I've even written about Yamamoto this season, mostly because he's just been as expected. This wasn't a bad start for Yamamoto, but it was nice to see him get a big strikeout number, because that's the one way he's been disappointing so far – he entered Monday's start with just 32 strikeouts in 37 innings. I don't see much reason to think he's going to be anything less than stellar moving forward, but I figured it was time for a check-in. 

Logan Gilbert, Mariners vs. ATL: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I don't have a good sense for what's gone wrong with Gilbert, but I have a hunch. It's more of a gut feeling, really, but I just worry he's tinkered his way into a rut. Gilbert is one of those pitchers who is constantly looking to add something to his arsenal, and sometimes those pitchers can find an approach that works, only to fiddle too much to sustain it. Gilbert has added a cutter and changeup to his arsenal this season, and while neither pitch looks like a bad pitch for him, I'm just not sure what the point of either is. The changeup does at least theoretically give him an early-count alternative to his splitter, a pitch he typically buries below the zone as a putaway pitch, but he also throws that changeup more often in non-putaway situations, so I'm not sure that's the approach he's taking. And with the cutter, I'm just not sure what niche it is supposed to be filling in his arsenal – Gilbert has never really had platoon concerns, and his four-seamer is a good pitch, so it's not like an alternative looked like a necessity. My concern here is just that it's hard to keep adding and subtracting pitches to your arsenal without messing up your mechanics or your feel for your pitches, and my hunch is that's why Gilbert has just been a bit off so far. I'm not too concerned that he won't eventually get on track, but he just hasn't looked sharp so far this season, and I wish I could slap a more confident "buy low" tag on him. 

Cam Schlittler, Yankees vs. BAL: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – The one thing I haven't quite been able to buy into with Schlittler is the elite strikeout rate – a 38% whiff rate on a four-seam fastball is basically unprecedented, and I'm not sure he has the approach to sustain a 30% strikeout rate once that normalizes. Well, he still got eight whiffs on 22 swings on the pitch Monday (36% whiff rate!), but it was the rest of the arsenal that let him down this time. Of course, it was still a great start, so we're kind of nitpicking here. But I do think there will be continued strikeout regression from Schlittler, even if I do also think he will continue to be an ace. 

Jose Soriano, Angels vs. CHW: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – You know I'm often more hesitant to buy into small-sample size breakouts than most Fantasy analysts, which means I've been more willing to keep Soriano at arm's length through his dominant month. Does that mean I'm doing a victory lap for this start? Not necessarily – victory laps are childish! But I do think it's worth noting that after he struck out at least seven in four of his first five starts, Soriano is down to four, six, and five in his past three. He's also walked at least three in five of eight, so he hasn't solved that issue, either. I still think it's worth buying into Soriano as a better version of himself than ever before, but I remain skeptical that he's suddenly an ace. The command and control are still very iffy, and now the strikeout rate is starting to come back down. He's a top-40 and possibly top-30 starter, but not necessarily an ace. That's okay. 

Payton Tolle, Red Sox @DET: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Phew. I'll admit, when Tolle struggled in his second start, I was a little worried that was going to lead to a demotion, which would be awfully embarrassing after all that praise we heaped on him after his debut. Well, he shrugged off that poor second start and looked a lot more like he did in the debut, scratching back most of the velocity he lost and dropping in his curveballs with ease for strikes. The development of the non-fastball arsenal is huge for Tolle, but having the fastball sit at 96 mph rather than 94-ish helps cover up for a lot, too. With two excellent starts in three tries, I just don't see how the scuffling Red Sox can justify taking him out of the rotation even when Sonny Gray and Garrett Crochet are back. 

Davis Martin, White Sox @LAA: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – I don't quite get what Martin is doing to find so much success this season, though to be fair, his success prior to this start mostly looked like a fluke – he entered Monday with a 1.95 ERA and an ugly 4.53 xERA. Monday, however, he saw a mild uptick in velocity across his entire arsenal, but especially his changeup, which was up 2 mph from his season average. But it was the slider that really carried him Monday, generating nine of his whopping 19 swinging strikes (on just 13 sliders, too!). I'm mostly inclined to write this off as a fluke, but the slider has been a tremendous weapon for him. There might be something here if he embraces that pitch even more. For now, I'm content to just hang on to him (he's already 87% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues, so he won't be your Tarik Skubal replacement in most leagues) and hope he doesn't fall apart immediately.  

JR Ritchie, Braves @SEA: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 2 K – Welp. That's one great start for Ritchie, followed by two pretty mediocre ones, and the biggest concern here is the 10 walks in 10.1 innings across the past two. Ritchie is probably never going to have overwhelming, blow-it-by-you stuff, so he'll have to command his pitches and keep hitters off balance well, and that's not what we're seeing from him right now. I don't know if the Braves are all that invested in getting Reynaldo Lopez back in the rotation, but they could just stick with the boring-but-fine Martin Perez if Ritchie isn't ready. And by the looks of the past two starts, he just might not be. 

Aaron Nola, Phillies @MIA: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Great start, and it wasn't necessarily just a fluke. Nola changed up his pitch mix a bit to prioritize his changeup instead of his sinker, but he also added some movement to his four-seamer, and if you believe in the pitch quality models, that made a huge difference. I'm skeptical, both that it was as real as the models suggest and that it will prove sustainable, but if you haven't dropped Nola yet, he at least gave you a reason not to Monday.

News and notes

We haven't heard much about Hunter Brown lately, but he could throw a bullpen as soon as this weekend. He's on the IL with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain and is probably still more than a month or more away from returning, but it's a nice sign. 

Jhoan Duran will be activated Tuesday from his oblique unless there is a setback of some sort. 

Cal Raleigh has missed three straight with right side tightness, but hopefully, he remains day to day. 

Ben Rice was out of the lineup Monday after leaving Sunday with a left hand contusion, but he remains day to day. 

Roman Anthony left early Monday due to right wrist discomfort. X-rays came back negative, but he'll fly to Boston Tuesday to see a hand specialist, which isn't a great sign. 

Michael Harris was out of the lineup again due to that left quad injury. He's sat out four of the past five.

George Springer has missed two straight after getting hit by a pitch on his left foot on Saturday, but is expected to rejoin the lineup on Tuesday.

Apparently, Brandon Woodruff will begin his throwing program this week. He went on the IL Friday with shoulder inflammation, and I'd still expect him to miss more than the minimum as he tries to get back up to full strength after his velocity dipped precipitously in his most recent start. 

Jacob Misiorowski threw a bullpen Monday after leaving his last start with a hamstring cramp. He seems fine for his next scheduled start Wednesday.

Christian Yelich took batting practice on the field Monday. He's on the IL with a left groin strain.

Jeremy Peña could begin a rehab assignment this weekend. He's on the IL with a right hamstring strain and would likely need at least a handful of games, given how much time he has missed so far this season. 

Ryan Helsley could be cleared to resume a throwing program later this week. He went on the IL Friday with right elbow inflammation, but it could be a relatively short absence. 

Speaking of the Orioles, Jordan Westburg has been shut down from throwing after feeling discomfort in his right elbow. If you were stashing him, I'd take this as a sign to let him go. 

Yainer Diaz was a late scratch due to a left abdominal injury, and we learned after the game he's expected to go on the IL. He's a drop in one-catcher leagues. 

Shea Langeliers was placed on the paternity list.

Chris Paddack was evaluated for an injury after his velocity dropped during his most recent start. He is still scheduled to make his next start Friday, but I think he's probably pitching for his job at this point. 

Carlos Estevez will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday, and that'll be one to watch closely to see if he has regained his lost velocity or not. 

Joe Boyle will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. He's a deeper name to remember now that Ryan Pepiot is out for the season.

Quinn Priester has been pulled off his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness.

Tommy Edman had his rehab paused after feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right ankle.

The Braves activated Sean Murphy and DFA'd Jonah Heim.