Fernando Mendoza watch: Predicting when Raiders will start No. 1 overall pick; QB's Rookie of the Year odds

Fernando Mendoza watch: Predicting when Raiders will start No. 1 overall pick; QB's Rookie of the Year odds

The Raiders don't have to rush Mendoza into the starting lineup after signing veteran Kirk Cousins to a one-year deal

By Garrett Podell May 18, 2026 at 9:14 am ET • 5 min read

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The Las Vegas Raiders have been crystal clear about their quarterback room all offseason long. 

Yes, they signed four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins to what's essentially a one-year, fully guaranteed $11.3 million contract in April, but the 38-year-old knew he was agreeing to join the Fernando Mendoza show weeks before Las Vegas officially selected the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner first overall. 

"I do think Fernando is going to be a great addition to our team, and I think he's going to have a great future in the league," Cousins said on NFL Network's "Good Morning Football" in April. "I have no problem being a voice in the room to kind of help him to the degree that I can. He's going to have great support all around him from the coaching staff to the degree that he'll be able to watch a veteran quarterback go through his habits and routines. I think that can be a great asset for him, and he was here yesterday on his draft day visit. We were able to watch film together. I think he'll be a great addition to the [QB] room."

The understood dynamic of Cousins as the veteran mentor and Mendoza as the future face of the franchise allowed for a fun schedule release video for the Raiders in which the two passers played off this dynamic while parodying "Step Brothers." 

Did we just become best friends? 📺 Tune in to the Schedule Release Show on NFL Network pic.twitter.com/2XPvFhXx4s

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) May 15, 2026

However, that doesn't mean Cousins is going to roll over and allow Mendoza to start in Week 1 just because he's the No. 1 overall draft pick. The 14-year veteran has every intention of fighting to begin the 2026 season as Las Vegas' starting quarterback.

"I don't want to start unless I'm the best option. I told [head coach] Klint [Kubiak] that the best player should play," Cousins said. "Certainly as long as that's the case, I have no qualms with however that [the quarterback competition] plays out." 

So now that the 2026 schedule is released, let's take a look at when Mendoza could start for Las Vegas, plus his rookie of the year chances. 

2026 Raiders schedule

WEEKDATEOPPONENTKICKOFF TIME (ET)NETWORK

1

Sept. 13

vs. Dolphins

4:25 p.m.

Fox

2

Sept. 20

at Chargers

4:05 p.m.

CBS

3

Sept. 27

at Saints

4:25 p.m.

CBS

4

Oct. 4

vs. Chiefs

4:25 p.m. 

CBS

5

Oct. 11

at Patriots

1 p.m. 

CBS

6

Oct. 18

vs. Bills 

4:25 p.m.

CBS

7

Oct. 25

vs. Rams

4:25 p.m.

Fox

8

Nov. 1

at Jets

1 p.m.

Fox

9

Nov. 8

at 49ers

4:05 p.m.

CBS

10

Nov. 15

vs. Seahawks

4:05 p.m.

CBS

11

Nov. 22

at Broncos

4:25 p.m.  

CBS

12

Nov. 29

at Browns

1 p.m.

Fox

13

Dec. 6

BYE

N/A

N/A

14

Dec. 13

vs. Chargers

4:05 p.m.

CBS

15

Dec. 20

vs. Broncos

4:25 p.m.

CBS

16

Dec. 27

vs. Titans

4:05 p.m.    

Fox

17

Jan. 3

at Cardinals

4:05 p.m.

CBS

18

TBD

at Chiefs

TBD

TBD

When Mendoza could start

Mendoza leading college football in passing touchdowns (41) and total touchdowns (48) helped power the Indiana Hoosiers to their first football national championship, but the game is much, much faster at the NFL level. That's why the Raiders signed Cousins: to provide a mentor for Mendoza to learn from while giving him time to acclimate to the pace of the game at the highest level. 

That's why whenever Mendoza does make his first start, it would make sense for him to face another rebuilding squad's defense to get his feet wet before facing some of the NFL's best. There are a few different opportunities for him to do just that based on the Raiders' now-revealed schedule. 

Should Mendoza truly prove he's well ahead of Cousins in training camp, Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins -- a team with a new head coach (Jeff Hafley), general manager (Jon-Eric Sullivan) and quarterback (Malik Willis) -- could make some sense. If not Week 1, then the next earliest time to unleash Mendoza could be Week 3 at the New Orleans Saints -- a team with a quarterback in just his second season (Tyler Shough) and three potential starters in the secondary who entered the league in 2024 or later (cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, cornerback Quincy Riley and safety Jonas Sanker). 

After that, waiting until Week 8 at the New York Jets could be ideal. The 2025 Jets became the first team in NFL history to fail to produce an interception on defense in a season. Yes, New York has completely overhauled its defense through the draft and free agency this offseason, but that's a lot of new faces that will be getting acclimated to playing together on a rebuilding team. 

The right time for Mendoza to start

It will be incredibly invaluable for Mendoza to observe Cousins' game-week routine that's allowed him to enter his 15th NFL season in 2026, but there will become a point where the first overall pick will need to play in order to truly develop. That ideal point would probably be Week 3 at the New Orleans Saints. Doing so would allow Mendoza to see how Cousins prepares to face both a rebuilding team like the Dolphins and a 2025 playoff team with a stout defense like the Los Angeles Chargers before taking the field himself against another rebuilding team in the Saints.

Mendoza's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year chances

Mendoza enters 2026 with plenty of opportunity to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, he possesses the second-best odds just behind 2026 third overall pick running back Jeremiyah Love of the Arizona Cardinals. Mendoza enters the NFL as just the fourth player in the common draft era (since 1967) after winning a Heisman Trophy and a national championship in their last collegiate season. The other three are Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Joe Burrow. Newton took home OROY honors in 2011 while Winston finished as the runner-up in 2015 behind Rams running back Todd Gurley. 

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

• Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love (+320)
• Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (+400)
• Titans WR Carnell Tate (+550)
• Saints WR Jordyn Tyson (+600)
• Seahawks RB Jadarian Price (+750)
• Eagles WR Makai Lemon (+950)

* Odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

The last No. 1 overall pick quarterback to win Offensive Rookie of the Year was Kyler Murray with the Arizona Cardinals back in 2019, so it certainly would buck the recent trend of first overall pick quarterbacks having rollercoaster rookie seasons. The good news for Mendoza is the Raiders spent massive amounts of money to provide their first overall pick rookie passer with plenty of support. 

They spent $305.6 million in free agency this offseason, the second-most in the NFL behind only the Tennessee Titans' $318.5 million. The largest deal they made was a three-year, $81 million contract with $60 million guaranteed to provide Mendoza with three-time Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum. Las Vegas made Linderbaum the highest-paid interior offensive lineman ever to secure his services. Taking snaps from Linderbaum, handing the ball off to 2025 sixth overall pick running back Ashton Jeanty and throwing passes to All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers gives Mendoza a decent chance to take home some hardware in his rookie year. 

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