CBS Sports and SportsLine's Matt Severance reveals his best MLB home run props picks for Friday's games
By Matt Severance May 1, 2026 at 9:29 am ET • 4 min read
Offense is down around Major League Baseball, but now that we have hit May that should start to change as the weather warms around the country. Plus, there figured to be an adjustment to the new ABS challenge system that allows allows players to challenge a ball or strike call made by the plate umpire. Walks are way up because of that anyways.
We have a typically full Friday schedule around the majors, and I don't see any serious weather games. And like I said a couple of weeks ago in this space, if the Rockies are playing at Coors Field then I'm almost certainly taking one hitter from that game as one of my two home run picks on a given Friday.
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Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my HR plays were the Dodgers' Kyle Tucker and the Rangers' Brandon Nimmo. Tucker as a non-factor vs. his former Cubs team at 0-for-3 with a walk. Nimmo also was a non-factor at 0-for-4 with a strikeout against the Athletics. My picks had at least been hitting Over 1.5 total bases previously. Que sera, sera.
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Top Friday MLB home run picks
- Ozzie Albies, Braves (+469, DraftKings)
- Joc Pederson, Rangers (+520, FanDuel)
Ozzie Albies, Braves (+469, DraftKings)
Coors Field in Denver hasn't been THAT homer-friendly yet, but the weather has been a bit weird in Denver so far and no Colorado batter is a mega-threat to go yard. Granted, the weather isn't that conducive to hitting tonight, either, as here is the night forecast via Weather.com: Some clouds will give way to mainly clear skies overnight. Low 38F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
But I can't ignore the bounce-back season that Braves three-time All-Star shortstop Ozzie Albies, a switch-hitter, is having nor his career splits against expected Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana. Atlanta cratered last year in large part due to injuries. Albies was a rare guy to stay healthy but regressed to a .240 average with 16 homers and a .365 slugging percentage. The 2026 Albies looks like the 2023 guy who hit .280 with a career-high 33 homers and .849 OPS as he's batting .323 with seven dingers and a .540 slugging (I go slugging/OPS depends on my mood). He's part of the reason why Atlanta has had such a nice turnaround.
Left-handed pitchers can last forever in the majors, and that's the 37-year-old Quintana as he now basically bounces from team-to-team to stay in the Show. And makes more than I will in a lifetime. Moms/Dads: Raise your kids to be lefty pitchers. Quintana was still pretty effective in 2025 with Milwaukee but wasn't offered a contract to return and signed a one-year deal with the Rockies, who as we all know are desperate for anyone to eat some innings. The Colombian is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and only nine strikeouts in 18.1 innings with four homers allowed.
The ball is going to be put in play against Quintana, point being, and Albies is 9-for-19 with three homers and two doubles career off him -- good for a 1.553 OPS. Against lefties overall in 2026, Albies has a 1.024 OPS compared to .827 vs. righties. But perhaps don't play fellow Braves All-Star Matt Olson as he has just one homer and 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats vs. Quintana.
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Joc Pederson, Rangers (+520, FanDuel)
Sometimes you just have to face the right pitcher to get out of a long slump, and perhaps that will be the case for the Rangers' Joc Pederson tonight in Detroit. The 34-year-old Pederson is one of your typical modern-day one trick ponies in that all he can do is homer and generally only against a certain type of pitcher.
And that's one risk recommending Pederson for any home run pick in that the lefty only starts against right-handers. He certainly should tonight with the Tigers starting righty Jack Flaherty, but in the later innings if Pederson is up in a danger spot then Detroit manager A.J. Hinch surely brings in a lefty and then Pederson is pinch-hit for. Don't believe me? Pederson has two official at-bats vs. a lefty this year and is 0-for-2 with a K..
Not that Pederson is killing righties at .232 with two homers and a .333 slugging. But he is 7-for-21 with three homers and a double career off Flaherty, good for a .773 slugging. Flaherty is struggling big time at the moment. He hasn't lasted more than 3.1 innings in his past two and allowed three bombs last time out in Cincinnati. Flaherty's control is gone as he has walked 22 guys in 25.1 innings. The warm weather hasn't really reached Detroit yet (why I left Michigan years ago) but can't ignore the splits.
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