Every time I am asked to write a busts column, I like to start by making one thing clear. Just because I call someone a bust does not mean I think they suck at football. It doesn't even mean that I refuse to draft them this year, just that I think it is a bad idea to draft them at their current ADP. Kyle Pitts is a great example. No, not this year. I love Pitts at ADP this year. But Pitts has been a bust more often than not at ADP. He is also fourth in receiving yards among tight ends since he entered the league.
So ADP matters a lot. But which ADP? Because in July, ADP can be all over the place depending on where you draft. For most of the busts in this article, I am using consensus ADP, but it is really important when you get ready to draft that you consider the site you are drafting on. For example, there are three players who I would call busts based on CBS ADP, but I would be less concerned about drafting them at their current consensus ADP. On some sites, I might even target them. Let's start with those guys.
Bucky Irving currently has an ADP of 44 on CBS as RB21. In the consensus ADP, he's going at pick 60. I have him ranked 62nd overall. Irving had a miserable year in 2025. He battled a shoulder injury, which he has continued to manage this offseason, and his effectiveness as a rusher fell off a cliff. He ranked behind Rachaad White and Sean Tucker in yards before contact and yards after contact. He also lost the short-yardage role to Tucker and did not receive one handoff inside the five-yard line. White has been replaced by Kenneth Gainwell, who caught 73 passes for Pittsburgh last year. There is a chance that Irving isn't the primary pass-catching back or the primary short-yardage back. That's why I can't draft him before Round 6.
Chuba Hubbard is the other running back I think is being drafted too high in CBS drafts. He's 68th in CBS ADP, 76th in consensus ADP, and 91st in my rankings. How you feel about Hubbard should be informed by how much you believe in Jonathon Brooks coming back from a second ACL tear. He's had nearly two years to do so, so I'm optimistic. If Brooks is 100%, the best-case scenario for Hubbard is a committee approach in Carolina, and there is a decent chance Brooks takes the lead in that committee. Even if Hubbard remains the 1A, I don't believe he has the upside in this offense to beat his CBS ADP by much. Unlike Irving, I see a non-zero chance that Hubbard becomes an afterthought and Brooks takes his job.
My final CBS only bust is Michael Wilson. His ADP on CBS is 76th overall. Consensus ADP has him at 91st. I rank him 105th. Wilson was spectacular last year with Jacoby Brissett after Marvin Harrison Jr. got hurt. But heading into 2026, I would expect Wilson to be third in targets behind Harrison and Trey McBride. When all three were on the field last year, Wilson was a distant third with a 15.8% target share. I also expect the pass volume in Arizona to shrink in 2026, which is why Wilson isn't my only Arizona bust.
Here are seven more busts from consensus ADP:
Busts 2.0 Projections powered by Sportsline
Justin Jefferson WR MIN Minnesota • #18
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 14th WR RNK 7th PROJ PTS 253.4 SOS 32 ADP 10 2025 Stats REC 84 TAR 141 REYDS 1048 TD 2 FPTS/G 11.9 I am very hopeful that Kyler Murray wins the job and proves better than J.J. McCarthy. But I am concerned about drafting Kyler Murray's WR1 in Round 1. Murray was miserable last year, averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and hasn't posted a pass TD rate above 3.9% since 2021. His rushing, while good for the team, can be detrimental to the total number of targets available for pass catchers. Jefferson's TPRR over the past two seasons has been about 24% when both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are on the field. That would have tied Emeka Egbuka for 23rd at WR last year. Jefferson is a good bet to bounce back, and a fine pick in the middle of Round 2, but he'll be a disappointment if you draft him in Round 1. 
A.J. Brown WR NE New England • #1
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 25th WR RNK 11th PROJ PTS 279.6 SOS 16 ADP 19 2025 Stats REC 78 TAR 121 REYDS 1003 TD 7 FPTS/G 14.7 I am on an island with this bust, so I won't be offended if you want to ignore me and draft Brown in Round 2 like everyone else is. I am just a little bit concerned about a 29-year-old coming off his worst year since 2021 with injury concerns. Brown has missed seven games over the last two seasons, and at least one team reportedly didn't want to trade for him because of his medicals. Last year, Stefon Diggs led New England with 102 targets while playing about 55% of the snaps. If Brown plays 17 games as a full-time player and gets targeted at that rate, I will have egg on my face. 
Trey McBride TE ARI Arizona • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 24th TE RNK 2nd PROJ PTS 273.4 SOS 2 ADP 23 2025 Stats REC 126 TAR 169 REYDS 1239 TD 11 FPTS/G 18.6 McBride has a new offensive coordinator, which may matter more than you think. Drew Petzig was one of the more tight-end-friendly coaches in the league. A third of Arizona's targets went to tight ends and Petzig was particularly fond of smashing easy button tight end targets. That loss, combined with the fact that the team drafted Jeremiah Love third overall and probably won't lead the league in pass attempts, has me worried about McBride at the two-three turn. If the pass volume shrinks and the tight end target share shrinks, then McBride will have to improve on his career 7.5 yards per target to justify his ADP. That's not a bet I want to make with Jacoby Brissett at QB and rookie Carson Beck potentially getting reps in the second half of the season. 
Travis Etienne RB NO New Orleans • #3
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 42nd RB RNK 18th PROJ PTS 239.3 SOS 29 ADP 36 2025 Stats RUYDS 1107 REC 36 REYDS 292 TD 13 FPTS/G 14.9 This one could be a temporary bust. But as of July 3, Alvin Kamara is still with the Saints. He has previously indicated that he would retire if he were traded. The Saints have shown no indication yet that they will cut him. Etienne should still be the lead back even if Kamara is on the roster all year, but Kamara won't be irrelevant. Kellen Moore runs a pass-heavy offense that does not involve the running backs as much as we'd like. Kamara's role will likely be on those passing downs, which could turn Etienne into an early downs rusher. There are very few of those we suggest drafting in Round 3. 
Javonte Williams RB DAL Dallas • #33
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 39th RB RNK 17th PROJ PTS 213.5 SOS 18 ADP 34 2025 Stats RUYDS 1201 REC 35 REYDS 137 TD 13 FPTS/G 15.2 Like Etienne, I could see Williams being completely overlooked in the passing game on a team that is pass-heavy. Williams only had 13 catches in his last 10 games last year and was RB23 on a per-game basis in those games. Like Etienne, I don't want to draft that profile in Round 3. 
David Montgomery RB HOU Houston • #32
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 57th RB RNK 23rd PROJ PTS 185.9 SOS 27 ADP 48 2025 Stats RUYDS 716 REC 24 REYDS 192 TD 9 FPTS/G 9.9 Montgomery has a massive opportunity in Houston. He's gone from the 1B in Detroit to a potential workhorse in Houston. I am just not sure the offensive environment could be much different. Detroit is consistently one of the best offenses in the NFL, and its offensive line has consistently been above average. Houston is the opposite of all of those things and really struggled with run blocking last year. Montgomery's 46% rush success rate was his lowest mark in Detroit and I am concerned Woody Marks will take passing downs. I would not draft the 29-year-old before late Round 6 in full PPR. 
Mike Evans WR SF San Francisco • #5
Age: 32 • Experience: 13 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 68th WR RNK 31st PROJ PTS 199.4 SOS 2 ADP 55 2025 Stats REC 30 TAR 62 REYDS 368 TD 3 FPTS/G 10.6 If there is a theme to my bust list, it is older guys changing teams that weren't very good last year. Evans certainly checks those boxes. Evans will turn 33 in August, has missed 12 games in the past two seasons, and just had his worst per-game production in his NFL career. He had one game last year with more than 60 receiving yards. The 49ers pass offense should be more efficient than Tampa's was last year, but this team has traditionally been less reliant on receivers in the passing game. That makes sense when you have George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. I don't believe Evans' upside is worth a Round 5 pick when you consider his complete lack of floor. Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments 
