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Democratic socialist Francesca Hong holds a comfortable double-digit lead in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor less than two weeks out from the contest, according to a new poll.
A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday shows Hong in first place at 38 percent in the crowded Democratic field, with former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in second place at 16 percent and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7 percent. All other candidates received less than 5 percent support. Roughly a third of respondents — 34 percent — said they were undecided.
The new polling shows Hong has expanded her lead in the race to take on the Republicans’ presumptive nominee, Rep. Tom Tiffany, in November.
A Marquette University Law School poll from last week showed the state lawmaker at 26 percent. The polling included former candidate Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D), who dropped out earlier this month amid scrutiny of her campaign finances. Hong received 27 percent when Rodriguez supporters were asked for their second choice in the earlier poll.
Barnes also placed second behind Hong at 15 percent in last week’s poll. He received 18 percent support when Rodriguez supporters selected their alternative candidate.
The latest polling also suggests that outgoing Gov. Tony Evers’s (D) endorsement of Crowley has done little to sway potential Democratic voters. Although, a significant portion of Wisconsin Democrats are still undecided.
“As in the previous poll, Hong draws her strongest support from younger voters and from those who describe themselves as very liberal,” a press release from the university said. “Her support in each group is stronger in this week’s poll than in the previous one.”
“By contrast, Barnes’ support rises with age, as does Crowley’s to a lesser extent,” the university continued. “These relationships are stronger in the current poll than in the previous one.”
The latest polling suggests a plurality of voters — 40 percent — are undecided on their second choice candidate. Twenty percent chose Barnes, while 13 percent selected Crowley and 12 percent said state Sen. Kelda Roys. Just 8 percent chose Hong, and 7 percent said Joel Brennan, the former Department of Administration secretary.
The polling does not include hypothetical match-ups between different Democratic candidates and Tiffany.
Yet, last week’s Marquette poll, which included head-to-head match-ups, suggested Barnes would perform the best against Tiffany, with the former lieutenant governor leading the congressman 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
However, all of five Democrats surveyed for hypothetical match-ups — including Barnes — fell within the margin of error, which was a 4.5 percentage points.
Hong’s insurgent candidacy provides the biggest test yet for democratic socialists after the far-left wing won several House primaries in reliably blue districts this summer. A win in a gubernatorial primary in a swing state would be a major boon for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
The state assembly member has sought to distance herself from the national DSA, saying in the only primary debate Tuesday that she was not a member of the national chapter and didn’t support some of its positions, according to WisPolitics.
Some Democrats are concerned that a democratic socialist’s win could risk the party’s chances of holding the toss-up gubernatorial seat in purple Wisconsin in November.
The new Marquette University Law School poll was conducted July 22-27, with 407 Democratic registered primary voters surveyed. The margin of error is 6.6 points.
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