Our Kentucky Derby betting guide tells you where to bet on the Kentucky Derby, gives odds, picks, tips, promo offers and more
By Ryan Wooden , Brandt Sutton & Blake Von Hagen May 2, 2026 at 2:17 pm ET • 38 min read 
Imagn Images Betting is one of the biggest draws of horse racing, and the 2026 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an exciting race. Tabbed as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports," the 2026 Kentucky Derby field features 19 of the world's fastest horses competing at Churchill Downs on Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET. According to the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, Renegade is the 4-1 Kentucky Derby betting favorite. Other notable 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders include Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1), and Chief Wallabee (8-1). Claim the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to get up to $400 signup bonus now:
Legendary trainer Bob Baffert, who's seeking a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby victory, will trot out two horses on Saturday, both of which are double-digit longshots. Litmus Test is a 30-1 longshot, while Potente is going off at 20-1. Baffert holds the record for Triple Crown wins by a trainer with 17, so you can never count out one of his horses.
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How to bet on the Kentucky Derby 2026
How to bet on the Kentucky Derby today requires going to official horse racing betting apps like TwinSpires, FanDuel Racing, DK Horse and 1/ST BET. Create an account, deposit funds, select the Churchill Downs track, go to Race 12 for the Kentucky Derby, and choose the Win wager to bet on the winner of the race. Wagering is open for the 152nd Kentucky Derby until post time at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 2. For bigger potential payouts, learn about exotics like Trifectas and Superfectas. Remember, you cannot bet on the Kentucky Derby on sportsbook apps. Here are the top Kentucky Derby betting sites:
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2026 Kentucky Derby odds
Here is the field for the 152nd Kentucky Derby. A maximum of 20 horses will run. Click on the odds to wager now.
Number Horse Morning Line Odds Last Race1Renegade 5-11st in Arkansas Derby2Albus 30-11st in Wood Memorial3Intrepido 50-14th in Santa Anita Derby 4Litmus Test 30-17th in Arkansas Derby5Right to PartyScratched2nd in Wood Memorial6Commandment 6-11st in Florida Derby7Danon Bourbon 20-11st in Fukuryu Steaks8So Happy 15-11st in Santa Anita Derby9The PumaScratched2nd in Florida Derby10Wonder Dean (JPN) 30-11st in UAE Derby11Incredibolt 20-11st in Virginia Derby12Chief Wallabee 8-13rd in Florida Derby13Silent TacticScratched2nd Rebel Stakes14Potente 20-12nd in Santa Anita15Emerging Market 15-11st in Louisiana Derby16Pavlovian 30-12nd in Louisiana Derby17Six Speed 50-12nd in UAE Derby18Further Ado 6-11st in Blue Grass Stakes19Golden Tempo 30-13rd in Louisiana Derby20FulleffortScratched1st in Jeff Ruby Steaks21Great White 50-15th in Blue Grass Stakes22Ocelli 50-13rd in Wood Memorial23Robusta 50-17th in Santa Anita Derby24Corona de OroScratched3rd in Lexington StakesKentucky Derby betting: No. 1 Renegade
Post Position
1
Horse
Renegade
Morning Line Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
125
Trainer
Todd Pletcher
Jockey
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Owner
Robert & Lawana Low and Repole Stable
Record
1st: 2, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 1 (five career races)
Sire
Into Mischief
Recent Workout Time
4/23: four furlongs in 50.94s
Renegade will enter Churchill Downs full of confidence after picking up victories in each of his last two starts. Renegade failed to win as a two-year-old, but he's coming off wins at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February and the Arkansas Derby in March. Renegade ran the fastest final furlong (11.8 seconds) of any horse in the field during his win at Oaklawn Park.
Renegade is trained by experienced horse trainer Todd Pletcher, who has recorded over 2,500 career victories. Pletcher has trained two Kentucky Derby winners with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 2 Albus
Post Position
2
Horse
Albus
Morning Line Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
100
Trainer
Riley Mott
Jockey
Manny Franco
Owner
Pin Oak Stud
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 1 (four career races)
Sire
Yaupon
Recent Workout Time
4/26: four furlongs in 49.0s
Albus had only run in three Maiden races before stepping way up in class to the Grade I Wood Memorial on April 4. Then, he went and won it, along with the 100 points needed to get into the Kentucky Derby field.
The question is whether Albus is for real or was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in the wood. The leader set hot early fractions and the early speed broke down, allowing closers like Albus to cross the finish line first. That might be tougher in the Derby with 19 other horses in the race and potential traffic trouble. But we have seen late-developing horses hit the board in past Derbies, too.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 3 Intrepido
Post Position
3
Horse
Intrepido
Morning Line Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
38
Trainer
Jeff Mullins
Jockey
Hector Berrios
Owner
Dutch Girl Holdings and Irving Ventures
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 0 (six career races)
Sire
Maximus Mischief
Recent Workout Time
4/26: four furlongs in 45.0s
Intrepido's connections secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby via earlier Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races, along with other horses with more points dropping out of the race. As a two-year-old, he did win the Grade I American Pharoah before finishing fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
His three-year-old campaign is less impressive than the favorites in this race. Intrepido finished second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby in his final prep race.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 4 Litmus Test
Post Position
4
Horse
Litmus Test
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
34
Trainer
Bob Baffert
Jockey
Martin Garcia
Owner
Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Stonestreet Stables, Bashor Racing, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 2 (seven career races)
Sire
Nyquist
Recent Workout Time
4/23: five furlongs in 59.36s
The legendary trainer Bob Baffert will need to pull a huge upset to capture his seventh Kentucky Derby win. Litmus Test was the last guaranteed starter into the Derby after several horses with more points were taken off the Derby trail two weeks before the race.
Litmust Test race five times as a two-year-old, winning on debut at five-and-a-half furlongs in August. He then raced in three Grade I stakes races for juveniles, finishing fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, third in the Breeders' Futurity and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He closed out his two-year-old campaign stepping down in class slightly to capture the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity.
As a three-year-old, a third place in the Rebel Stakes preceded a very disappointing seventh place in his final prep, the Arkansas Derby. Litmus Test will wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 6 Commandment
Post Position
6
Horse
Commandment
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
150
Trainer
Brad Cox
Jockey
Luis Saez
Owner
Wathnan Racing
Past Performances
1st: 4, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 0 (five career races)
Sire
Into Mischief
Recent Workout Time
4/25: five furlongs in 1:01.4s
Commandment has run in five career races, including two as a two-year-old, having won all but his first career race. In his debut, he finished fourth in a six-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland on October 4. From there, he shipped to Churchill Downs and broke his maiden at seven furlongs on December 1.
Commandment began his three-year-old campaign on January 3 at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, winning the one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes. His Kentucky Derby hopes continued to grow with another win in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on February 28.
One month later, Commandment rallied from the back of the pack despite slow early fractions and getting caught wide on the far turn to win the Grade I Florida Derby, edging past The Puma in a photo finish on March 28. He will certainly be one of the favorites in the 2026 Kentucky Derby come post time.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 7 Danon Bourbon
Post Position
7
Horse
Danon Bourbon
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
Japan Road to Derby qualifier
Trainer
Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey
Atsuya Nishimura
Owner
Danox Co. Ltd.
Past Performances
1st: 3, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 0 (three career races)
Sire
Maxfield
Recent Workout Time
Only gallops at Churchill Downs
How good Danon Bourbon is, along with the quality of the competition he faced in three career races in Japan, is a bit of a mystery. Here's what we do know: he has not lost, and despite racing in Japan, is actually an American bred horse with a sire that never lost at Churchill Downs.
His final time for about 1 1/8 miles, 1:50.9, is easily the best in the Fukuryu Stakes for at least the past two decades, with data going back to 2003. The Fukuryu is the final and most important prep race on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby circuit.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 8 So Happy
Post Position
8
Horse
So Happy
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
115
Trainer
Mark Glatt
Jockey
Mike Smith
Owner
Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners
Past Performances
1st: 3, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 1 (four career races)
Sire
Runhappy
Recent Workout Times
4/24: five furlongs in 1:00.38s
So Happy raced only once as a two-year-old but won on debut at Del Mar before running exclusively at Santa Anita as a three-year-old. A win in the Grade II San Vicente on January 10 followed, before a third-place setback in the Grade II San Felipe on March 7.
His connections were undeterred and entered him in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 4, and he did not disappoint. So Happy stalked fast fractions set by Robusta and fellow-Derby entrant Potente and pulled away by almost three lengths in the final furlong to book a trip to the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
Post Position
10
Horse
Wonder Dean (JPN)
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
Europe/Middle East Road to Derby qualifier
Trainer
Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey
Ryusei Sakai
Owner
Yoshinari Yamamoto
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 2, 3rd: 0 (six career races)
Sire
Dee Majesty
Recent Workout Time
4/24: five furlongs in 1:02s
The only Japanese-bred horse in this year's Derby, Wonder Dean broke is Maiden in September at Nakayama in Japan, winning a nine-furlong race by eight lengths. As a three-year-old, he finished fourth in the Saudi Derby before shipping to Dubai for the UAE Derby in March.
Wonder Dean won the UAE Derby, but his finishing time of 1:59.19 was slower than that of past horses that have hit the board in big American stakes races. Breeders' Cup Classic winner Forever Young, who also lost in a photo finish in the Kentucky Derby, ran the UAE Derby in 1:57.89. Wonder Dean will have to overcome a finishing time in his final prep that has left other UAE Derby shipper off the board in the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 11 Incredibolt
Post Position
11
Horse
Incredibolt
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
60
Trainer
Riley Mott
Jockey
Jaime Torres
Owner
Pin Oak Stud
Past Performances
1st: 3, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 0 (five career races)
Sire
Bolt d'Oro
Recent Workout Time
4/26: four furlongs in 47.0s
Incredibolt's path to the Kentucky Derby has some handicappers concerned. The Virginia Derby was back on March 14, creating a large gap between races before the Kentucky Derby. The Virginia Derby is also a one-turn race, very different from the Derby's two-turn race for horses at Churchill Downs. That final prep in Virginia this year also featured a very slow early pace, potentially producing outlier final fractions.
Before that, Incredibolt finished sixth in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes against likely tougher competition at Gulfstream Park. As a two-year-old, he won the Grade III Street Sense at Churchill Downs after also breaking his Maiden under the twin spires in his second career race.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 12 Chief Wallabee
Post Position
12
Horse
Chief Wallabee
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
50
Trainer
Bill Mott
Jockey
Junior Alvarado
Owner
Michael and Katherine Ball
Past Performances
1st: 1, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 1 (three career races)
Sire
Constitution
Recent Workout Time
4/26: four furlongs in 49.2s
Chief Wallabee will wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. In his final prep race, he seemed to be in the perfect position, with a stalking trip and a slower early pace to have enough down the stretch. He failed to pass The Puma, and both got beaten by the thunderous close of Commandment.
The positive spin would be Chief Wallabee was not beaten by much, just like his trainer, Bill Mott's entry in the Florida Derby last year: Sovereignty, the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner. Chief Wallabee finished second in the Fountain of Youth before that, also beaten by Constitution. He won on debut in January, after not racing as a three-year-old.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 14 Potente
Post Position
14
Horse
Potente
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
100
Trainer
Bob Baffert
Jockey
Juan Hernandez
Owner
Speedway Stables
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 0 (three career races)
Sire
Into Mischief
Recent Workout Times
4/26: five furlongs in 57.8s
Bob Baffert sits tied with Ben Jones for the most Kentucky Derby wins by a trainer with six. To break the record, Potente is likely his best chance this year over Litmus Test. He did not run as a two-year-old but has looked strong at Santa Anita. He won on debut before capturing the Grade II San Felipe Stakes.
In the Santa Anita Derby, he was beaten by So Happy after setting the pace with fast early fractions. In fact, Potente got into a speed duel with Robusta early. If Potente can avoid a speed duel in the Derby and perhaps stalk the pace instead, maybe he'd have more left in the stretch run this time around.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 15 Emerging Market
Post Position
15
Horse
Emerging Market
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
100
Trainer
Chad Brown
Jockey
Flavien Prat
Owner
Klaravich Stables
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 0 (two career races)
Sire
Candy Ride
Recent Workout Time
4/24: four furlongs in 47.58s
Emerging Market is the most lightly raced horse in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but he's also unbeaten. He won on debut in Tampa Bay in Maiden company by three-quarters of a length.
Trainer Chad Brown then showed no fear in entering him in the Grade I Louisiana Derby, a race that is only a half furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Emerging Market stalked fast early fractions in fifth on the back stretch. Down the home stretch, he outdueled Pavlovian to win by a head.
If the Derby pace is hot early, too, then Emerging Market is certainly one of the closer to look out for coming home.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 16 Pavlovian
Post Position
16
Horse
Pavlovian
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
70
Trainer
Doug O'Neill
Jockey
Edwin Maldonado
Owner
Reddam Racing
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 4, 3rd: 1 (10 career races)
Sire
Pavel
Recent Workout Times
4/26: five furlongs in 1:03.4s (out of the gate)
It's almost poetic that the horse Pavlovian battled down the stretch of the Louisiana Derby is right next to him in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Perhaps experience will give him the edge this time, as he is the most-run horse in this year's field with 10 career starts.
He broke his Maiden in June but did not win again in five more races after that as a juvenile. In January, he finished third in his first race as a three-year-old, the California Cup Derby. He then won the Sunland Derby in February before that second-place finish in his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 17 Six Speed
Post Position
17
Horse
Six Speed
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
Europe/Middle East Road to Derby qualifier
Trainer
Bhupat Seemar
Jockey
Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Owner
Black Type Thoroughbreds, Brunetti Dugan Stables, Swinbank Stables, Steve Adkisson
Past Performances
1st: 3, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 1 (5 career races)
Sire
Not This Time
Recent Workout Time
4/27: four furlongs in 48.8s
The Kentucky Derby will be the first time Six Speed has left Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. He won his second race as a two-year-old before winning his first two races at three, including the Grade III UAE Two Thousand Guineas.
His ticket was punched to the Derby with a second-place finish in the Grade II UAE Derby on March 28, beaten by Wonder Dean.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 18 Further Ado
Post Position
18
Horse
Further Ado
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
135
Trainer
Brad Cox
Jockey
John Velasquez
Owner
Spendthrift Farm
Past Performances
1st: 3, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 1 (six career races)
Sire
Gun Runner
Recent Workout Times
4/25: five furlongs in 1:00.0s
Further Ado was a longshot in the Kentucky Derby futures market throughout the early spring, but he's surged up the board after three wins in his last four races, which include a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4.
The Brad Cox-trained horse concluded his 2-year-old season with a G2 victory at the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which was also held at Churchill Downs. As a 3-year-old, he was runner-up in Tampa and then prevailed at the Blue Grass Stakes. The son of Gun Runner, Further Ado's sire won multiple G1 races in his day but placed third at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Further Ado is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times in his career.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 19 Golden Tempo
Post Position
19
Horse
Golden Tempo
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
60
Trainer
Cherie DeVaux
Jockey
Jose Ortiz
Owner
Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 2 (four career races)
Sire
Curlin
Recent Workout Times
4/24: four furlongs in 47.4s
Golden Tempo could make Cherie DeVaux the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winner. He broke his maiden on debut as a two-year-old in December before winning the Grade III Lecompte Stakes in January.
Added distance and tougher competition after that have not been his friend. Golden Tempo finished third in his two most recent races: the Grade II Risen Star Stakes and Grade II Louisiana Derby, beaten soundly by Emerging Market and Pavlovian.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 21 Great White
Post Position
21
Horse
Great White
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
30
Trainer
John Ennis
Jockey
Alex Achard
Owner
John Ennis and Three Chimneys Farm
Past Performances
1st: 2, 2nd: 0, 3rd: 0 (four career races)
Sire
Volatile
Recent Workout Times
4/22: four furlongs in :52.2s
Great White has drawn into the race with the scratch of Silent Tactic. He needed help to get into Derby 152 after a fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes earned him no Derby points. Before that, Great White did win the John Battalgia Memorial over Fulleffort on Synthetic in February at Turfway Park. His first try as a three-year-old was another fifth in the Leonatus in January, after winning on debut at six furlongs as a juvenile in December.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 22 Ocelli
Post Position
22
Horse
Ocelli
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
25
Trainer
D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey
Joe Ramos
Owner
Durr, Ashley, Tate, Anthony and Front Page Equestrian
Past Performances
1st: 0, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 3 (six career races)
Sire
Connect
Recent Workout Times
4/24: four furlongs in :47.6
Those past performances are correct. Ocelli has never won a race in six tries. A horse that has never won a race is called a Maiden. Only three horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby as a Maiden: Brokers Tip 1933, Sir Barton 1919 and Buchanan 1884. Ocelli is in this race because of at least a half dozen other horses that had their connections pass on the Derby and two more scratches once post positions were drawn.
Everybody has a chance in the Derby, but this would be a real stunner. He was only third in the Wood Memorial, the benefit of a pace meltdown but still could not pass fellow Derby entries Albus and Right to Party with that perfect setup for his closing style.
Kentucky Derby betting: No. 23 Robusta
Post Position
23
Horse
Robusta
Odds
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points
25
Trainer
Doug F. O'Neill
Jockey
Cristian Torres
Owner
Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley)
Past Performances
1st: 1, 2nd: 1, 3rd: 0 (five career races)
Sire
Accelerate
Recent Workout Times
4/30: five furlongs in 1:02.20
Robusta is a 3-year-old colt owned by the Calumet Farm, which is one of the sport's most famous stables. His sire, Accelerate, earned nearly $7 million in his career and won 10 races. Robusta has raced five times, breaking is Maiden in January as a juvenile before finishing sixth in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in February.
He added a second-place finish in the San Felipe (G2) in March and then finished seventh in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in April. Given that he has been outclassed by elite horses several times, a win on Saturday night would be surprising.
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Kentucky Derby Betting Trends
Several trends have held up over the past 25-30 years of helping predict the Kentucky Derby winner with a high success rate. Here are some of the more popular trends of Derby winners over that large sample of time.
Beyer Speed Figures
Beyer Speed Figures are a system for rating the performance of horses and assigning a numerical value to those performances across various races at various tracks in North America. It was designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, a former horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. For Kentucky Derby purposes, the higher the Beyer number in a prep race, the more impressive the performance.
Of the last 34 Kentucky Derby winners, 30 of them had posted at least a 95 Beyer Speed Figure leading up to the race (88.2%); 12 of the previous 16 (75%) posted a 100+ BSF.
Here are the last three Beyer Speed Figures for this year's Derby horses, with the most recent BSF listed first:
Number Horse Last 3 BSFs1Renegade98-93-822Albus83-84-733Intrepidoestimated less than 95 in 3-year-old races4Litmus Test79-82-966Commandment100-101-917Danon BourbonNo BSF for int'l races8So Happy100-86-969The PumaScratched10Wonder Dean (JPN)No BSF for int'l races11Incredibolt88-58-8212Chief Wallabee99-100-8914Potente95-89-7915Emerging Market90-9716Pavlovian90-87-7117Six SpeedNo BSF for int'l races18Further Ado106-92-8219Golden Tempo88-84-8121Great White72-84-7122Ocelli81-78-7723Robusta76-89-78So based on these results, the 2026 Kentucky Derby appears to be a strong field with eight runners having posted at least a 95 Beyer Speed Figure coming into the race:
- Renegade
- Litmus Test
- Commandment
- So Happy
- Chief Wallabee
- Potente
- Emerging Market
- Further Ado
However, one international horse might have also fit the bill if BSFs were available for his race in Japan, as evidenced by the next trend.
Final Fractions Theory
Another hat tip to another one of the all-time great turf writers, Louisville's own Jennie Rees, for originating this theory that has only gained more support since she devised it. In fact, 30 of the previous 34 Kentucky Derby winners have met the criteria for this theory, including 13 of the last 14 champions.
The theory states that a horse must have met either of these criteria in his final Derby prep race:
- Less than 13 seconds for the final furlong
- Less than 38 seconds for the final three furlongs
Why does that matter? It's because the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby will be the longest race any of these horses has ever run. So if they finished slowly in a shorter race last time out, they are unlikely to improve enough in the Kentucky Derby to win.
Here's how the 2026 Kentucky Derby field stacks up in the final fractions:
Number Horse Final Furlong Time Final 3 Furlongs Time1Renegade11.836.62Albus13.338.83Intrepido1439.44Litmus Test12.938.86Commandment12.336.57Danon Bourbon12.6*~35.8*8So Happy12.937.79The PumaScratchedScratched10Wonder Dean (JPN)14.1*~40.0*11Incredibolt11.936.112Chief Wallabee12.636.914Potente13.338.415Emerging Market12.537.516Pavlovian12.637.817Six Speed14.5*~41.0*18Further Ado1337.519Golden Tempo12.437.221Great White14.941.522Ocelliest. > 13sest. > 38s23Robustaest. > 13sest. > 38s*Estimated from meters in an international race run outside the United States
Once again, we have evidence of a stronger Kentucky Derby field than usual, with 12 horses meeting at least one of the criteria in the Final Fractions Theory. Last year, the field only featured four double qualifiers (horses that met both criteria). This year, there are 10.
Take note of Danon Bourbon, who does not have any Beyer Speed Figures from his races run in Japan, but his final fractions estimate may put him firmly in contender consideration.
We do not have final fractions on Ocelli or Robusta. Still, we can safely estimate that if they finished behind Derby entries that did not qualify for the Final Fractions Theory, then neither qualified.
Result in last Kentucky Derby prep race
In the era of the Road to the Kentucky Derby, horses now have to earn their way into the Derby with points scored from Derby prep races. The higher-value races are run closer to the first Saturday in May and typically more than a mile, giving a better indication of how a horse might hold up in the Derby's 1 ¼ miles.
But this sample even includes horses from before the points era. Since 1996, here is where Derby winners have finished in their final prep race:
- 1st: 17
- 2nd: 8
- 3rd: 1
- 4th: 3
86% of Kentucky Derby winners finished in the top two in their final prep race. Here is how this year's field did in their most recent race.
Number HorseLast Prep Race Result1Renegade1st in Arkansas Derby2Albus1st in Wood Memorial3Intrepido4th in Santa Anita Derby4Litmus Test7th in Arkansas Derby6Commandment1st in Florida Derby7Danon Bourbon1st in Fukuryu Steaks8So Happy1st in Santa Anita Derby9The PumaScratched10Wonder Dean (JPN)1st in UAE Derby11Incredibolt1st in Virginia Derby12Chief Wallabee3rd in Florida Derby14Potente2nd in Santa Anita15Emerging Market1st in Louisiana Derby16Pavlovian2nd in Louisiana Derby17Six Speed2nd in UAE Derby18Further Ado1st in Blue Grass Stakes19Golden Tempo3rd in Louisiana Derby21Great White5th in Blue Grass Stakes22Ocelli3rd in Wood Memorial23Robusta7th in Santa AnitaOnly seven horses did not finish in the top two in their most recent Derby prep race in 2026. This is shaping up to be one of the strongest Derby fields in recent memory.
The Curse of Apollo
Only two horses have broken the Kentucky Derby curse of Apollo. For almost 140 years, no Kentucky Derby horse since Apollo in 1882 had won the Derby without having run in a race as a two-year-old.
The curse was finally broken by Justify in 2018, and he even went on to win the Triple Crown. Mage did it again in 2023.
Is the curse of Apollo already broken? Or were Justify and Mage unlikely outliers? Here are the 2026 Kentucky Derby horses that did not run as two-year-olds:
- Emerging Market
- Potente
- Chief Wallabee
- Wonder Dean (JPN)
- Six Speed
Kentucky Derby post position betting
The 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions have been revealed, so let's take a detailed look at post position betting ahead of the 152nd Run for the Roses. It has been extremely difficult for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby from post 1. In fact, there has not been a horse to win from the rail post since 1986 when Ferdinand crossed the finish line first.
However, post 2, post 9, post 12, post 14, and post 17 have gone even longer without producing a winner at the Kentucky Derby. The last time a horse won from one of those posts was in 1961, when Carry Back won from post 14.
Horses breaking from post 5 have been productive over the years. Since 1930, post 5 has produced the most winners (10), the most runners-up (eight, tied with posts 3 and 6), and the second-highest win percentage (10.4%). However, Right to Party was scratched from post 5 this year.
Post 15 has produced several winners in recent years, including Orb (2013), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020).
Another statistic worth noting before placing your 2026 Kentucky Derby wagers, nine of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners (60%) started from post 13 or wider.
Kentucky Derby betting options and wagers
Popular wagers
Definition
Win
Betting on a horse to win the race
Place
Betting on a horse to finish first or second
Show
Betting on a horse to finish first, second or third
Win/Place/Show
Combining all three into one bet
Exactas
Betting on first and second place in exact order
Trifectas
Betting on the top three finishers in exact order
Superfectas
Betting on the top four finishers in exact order
Super Hi-5
Betting on the top five finishers in exact order
Box wagers
A combination bet where all possible numeric combinations are covered for a group of horses
Daily Double
Betting on the winners of two consecutive races
Oaks/Derby Double
Betting on the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby
Pick 3, 4, 5, 6 wagers
A multi-race bet in which the winners of all the included races have to be selected
Win
A win bet is simply a bet on which horse will win the race. You collect winnings only if your horse finishes first.
Place
A place bet gives you a chance to make money if your horse finishes first or second. However, you will not win as much money as a win bet if your horse finishes first.
Show
A show bet is a wager on a horse to finish first, second or third. You collect in any of those situations, but your payout is only the show payout.
Win/Place/Show
This combines win, place and show into one bet. If your horse wins, you collect all three payouts, if it comes in second, you collect place and show, and if it finishes third, you get just the show payout. The wager is split into three equal bets.
Exactas
Exactas require bettors to correctly choose the top two finishers in exact order. If you play a 1-5 exact, the No. 1 horse must win and the No. 5 horse must finish second.
Trifectas
Trifectas are similar to exactas, except they offer an even higher payout, as bettors must pick horses to finish first, second and third in exact order. A 1-5-11 trifecta means the No. 1 horse must win, the No. 5 horse must finish second and the No. 11 horse must finish third.
Superfectas
Superfectas add another horse to the ticket, as you must pick the horses that finish first, second, third and fourth in exact order.
Super Hi-5
This is an even more challenging wager, with bettors needing to correctly select the first five horses to cross the finish line in exact order. These are also called "pentafecta" bets.
Box wager
A box bet is an exotic wager where bettors select multiple horses to finish in the top positions in any order, covering all combinations. This increases winning chances, but it also costs more to pay for every combination. These can be used with multiple types of exotic wagers, such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas.
Daily Double
This wager combines multiple races into one ticket, as you must select the winner of two consecutive races. The bets must be placed before the first of the two races starts.
Oaks/Derby Double
The Oaks/Derby Double is similar to the Daily Double, but it combines the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. To win the bet, you must correctly pick the winner of both races. It is a popular racing wager at Churchill Downs.
Pick 3, 4, 5, 6 wager
These bets combine at least three races into one ticket. You must pick the winner of three consecutive races in a Pick 3, four consecutive races in a Pick 4, five consecutive races in a Pick 5 and six consecutive races in a Pick 6. The Pick 6 wager can offer the biggest payouts in horse racing betting.
Kentucky Derby betting calculator
When you're betting on the Kentucky Derby, horse racing betting sites and apps will let you add multiple horses to your win bets, exactas, trifectas and more. However, the more horses you add, the more expensive your ticket gets, and it even becomes possible to cash a ticket that pays out less than the cost of the ticket.
Here's what common exotic tickets will cost you, depending on how many horses you include in your boxed wager.
$2 Win/Place/Show betting calculator
If you place a $2 win/place/show wager on a horse in the Derby, it is the same as placing three separate bets on the horse: $2 to win, $2 to place (finish top two), $2 to show (finish top three). Therefore, that wager costs $6.
The more horses you add to a win/place/show ticket, the higher the cost of the wager:
- Two-horse W/P/S ticket: $12
- Three-horse W/P/S ticket: $18
- Four-horse W/P/S ticket: $24
- Five-horse W/P/S ticket: $30
- Six-horse W/P/S ticket: $36
- Seven-horse W/P/S ticket: $42
- Eight-horse W/P/S ticket: $48
- Nine-horse W/P/S ticket: $54
- 10-horse W/P/S ticket: $60
$2 Exacta box betting calculator
An exacta is a wager that tries to predict the top two finishers in the race in the exact order of finish. An exacta box allows for the horses you choose to finish in any order.
- Two-horse exacta box: $4
- Three-horse exacta box: $12
- Four-horse exacta box: $24
- Five-horse exacta box: $40
- Six-horse exacta box: $60
- Seven-horse exacta box: $84
- Eight-horse exacta box: $112
- Nine-horse exacta box: $144
- 10-horse exacta box: $180
$1 Trifecta box betting calculator
A trifecta is a wager that tries to predict the top three finishers in the race in the exact order of finish. A trifecta box allows for the horses you choose to finish in any order.
- Three-horse trifecta box: $6
- Four-horse trifecta box: $24
- Five-horse trifecta box: $60
- Six-horse trifecta box: $120
- Seven-horse trifecta box: $210
$1 Superfecta box betting calculator
A superfecta is a wager that tries to predict the top four finishers in the race in the exact order of finish. A superfecta box allows for the horses you choose to finish in any order.
- Four-horse superfecta box: $24
- Five-horse superfecta box: $120
- Six-horse superfecta box: $360
How Kentucky Derby betting payouts differ from sportsbooks
Horse racing betting is significantly different from traditional sports betting, as most horse racing betting is pari-mutuel betting. All bets of a given type, such as win bets and exactas, are grouped into a single pool. A certain percentage of the pool, called the takeout, is removed to pay taxes, fund operations at the track, etc.
The remainder of the pool is distributed among the winning bettors. The Kentucky Derby draws millions of dollars from bettors every year, so the pools and payouts can be huge. The $1 superfecta in the Kentucky Derby has produced an average payout of $46,602.84 since 2015, with a median payout of $9,456.40.
Kentucky Derby records
The Kentucky Derby has been run every year since inception in 1875, and it is the most-watched and most-attended horse race in the United States. There are numerous historic records, including Secretariat's speed record (1:59.4), which has stood since 1973.
Fastest time
Secretariat is the most famous horse in history, and he still holds the fastest winning time (1:59.40) in Kentucky Derby history. He went on to win the Triple Crown in 1973, making him the only horse in the top 10 Kentucky Derby fastest times to win the Triple Crown.
Slowest winning time
You must go back multiple centuries to find the slowest winning time in Kentucky Derby history, as Kingman won the 1891 edition in 2:52.25.
Largest margin of victory
Four horses have won the Kentucky Derby by eight lengths, and all four of them occurred before 1950. Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by a famous 31 lengths, but he only won the Kentucky Derby by 2.5 lengths in 1973.
Biggest longshot
Donerail (91-1) is the biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby all-time, which occurred in 1913 in a field of just eight horses. The next four on the list all happened this century, including Rich Strike (80-1) in 2022 and Country House (65-1) in 2019.
Most wins by a trainer
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is seeking a seventh Kentucky Derby victory, which would give him the solo lead. He is currently tied with trainer Ben Jones for Kentucky Derby wins (6). Baffert already holds the records for Triple Crown wins (17) and Preakness Stakes victories (8).
Most wins by an owner
Calumet Farm's eight wins are double that of any owner. The famed stable won in 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952, 1957, 1958 and 1968. Edward R. Bradley was a four-time winner, reaching the winner's circle in 1921, 1926, 1932 and 1933. Belair Stud is the only other owner/farm to collect three victories, winning in 1930, 1935 and 1939.
Most wins by a jockey
Two jockeys won the Kentucky Derby five times, as Bill Hartack achieved that feat from 1957 to 1969, while Eddie Arcaro won five times between 1938 and 1952. Hartack only rode in 12 editions of the race, with Arcaro recording 21 Derby mounts.
Oldest winning jockey
Bill Shoemaker is the oldest jockey to win the historic race, as he was 54 when Ferdinand won in 1986. His record is in jeopardy on Saturday, with Mike Smith (59) aboard So Happy, who won the Santa Anity Derby (G1)
Triple Crown winners at the Kentucky Derby
The Triple Crown consists of three races: the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. Only 13 horses have ever won the American Triple Crown. The first to do so was Sir Barton in 1919, and the most recent was Justify in 2018.
Sir Barton (1919)
Sir Barton was the first horse to win the Triple Crown and broke from post 1 in the 1919 Kentucky Derby. Sir Barton was trained by H. Guy Bedwell, and was ridden by Johnny Loftus, who guided Sir Barton to a five-length victory over Billy Kelly.
Gallant Fox (1930)
Gallant Fox was victorious in 11 of his 17 races, including the three Triple Crown races. He won the 1930 Kentucky Derby with a winning time of 2:07:6, finishing two lengths ahead of Gallant Knight.
Omaha (1935)
Omaha won the 1935 Kentucky Derby, beating Roman Soldier by 1 1/2 lengths to secure the 61st Run for the Roses. Omaha was the only Triple Crown winner sired by another Triple Crown winner (Gallant Fox).
War Admiral (1937)
War Admiral won 21 of his 26 starts, and unplaced just once in his career. War Admiral was the first horse ever to carry the colors of Samuel D. Riddle in the Kentucky Derby. He won the 1937 Kentucky Derby by 1 3/4 lengths over Pompoon, going wire-to-wire as the favorite.
Whirlaway (1941)
Whirlaway recorded a dominant victory at the Kentucky Derby in 1941. Whirlaway's winning time of 2:01.4 was the fastest in history to that point, and his eight-length victory tied a Kentucky Derby record that still stands to this day. He also won the Belmont Stakes, Preakness Stakes and Travers Stakes later that year, and is the only horse in history to win those four races.
Count Fleet (1943)
Count Fleet was the 2-5 favorite heading into the 1943 Kentucky Derby, which is the shortest-priced favorite in the race's history. Following his illustrious career, Count Fleet went on to become a successful sire, producing 1951 Kentucky Derby winner Count Turf.
Assault (1946)
Trained by Max Hirsch, Assault went on to tie the record with an eight-length win in the Kentucky Derby on his way to becoming the seventh Triple Crown winner. To this day, Assault remains the only Texas-bred winner of the Triple Crown.
Citation (1948)
Citation won the Triple Crown in 1948 in dominant fashion. Citation, who was the first horse with $1 million in career earnings, won 16 consecutive stakes races, including the Kentucky Derby. He beat stablemate Coaltown by 3 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs.
Secretariat (1973)
Secretariat posted a winning time of 1:59 2/5 at the 1973 Kentucky Derby, a track record for 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs that still stands today. Secretariat remains the only horse to run faster times in each successive quarter-mile of the 1 1/4-mile race. He went on to set speed records in all three Triple Crown races, cementing himself as one of the greatest thoroughbreds in the history of horse racing.
Seattle Slew (1977)
Seattle Slew became the 10th Triple Crown winner and overcame a sloppy start to win the 1977 Kentucky Derby. He entered the first leg of the Triple Crown as the undefeated favorite and eventually won the race by 1 3/4 lengths over Run Dusty Run. Seattle Slew went on to sire 111 stakes winners, including 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Swale.
Affirmed (1978)
Affirmed beat his rival Alydar in all three of the Triple Crown races, including the 1978 Kentucky Derby. Ridden by 18-year-old jockey Steve Cauthen, Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths with a final time of 2:01 1/5. Affirmed was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 1980.
American Pharoah (2015)
American Pharoah, trained by Bob Baffert, went off as a 5-2 favorite at Churchill Downs and won by a length, but cemented himself as one of the greatest race horses by becoming the first horse in history to win all three American classics and the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Justify (2018)
Justify is the last horse to successfully win the Triple Crown. He beat Good Magic to win the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs and posted a winning time of 2:04.20 on a sloppy track. With his victory at Churchill Downs, Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby despite not having raced as a two-year-old.
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