Picking in the back half of Fantasy drafts this summer will be harder than the front half, at least in Round 1.
There's a pretty locked-in consensus on the first seven picks. Once you get to eight you may have to make a decision on how much you love Christian McCaffrey. That decision is pushed onto the person picking at ninth overall if McCaffrey isn't taken, and if he is taken then there's a completely different decision waiting for you.
Take a running back? If so, whom? Take a receiver? If so, whom?
This decision will come down to how you feel about wide receivers this year. The position is deep with guys who can average 12 PPR points, but really lean on high-target, high-upside pass-catchers who can flirt with 18 PPR points -- so much so that the ones you'll feel really good about are going to be gone by ninth overall.
So if you want to get one of the rare high-volume wide receivers, Round 1 is the time to go for it. We're talking CeeDee Lamb as the safest of the bunch followed by, based on average draft position, Justin Jefferson and Drake London.
But if you'd rather take a running back with a clearer pathway to excellent volume and a high Fantasy average, you'll be in the market for, based on average draft position, James Cook, De'Von Achane or Ashton Jeanty.
You're gonna need to get this figured out before you're on the clock. And while you're at it, you might as well prep the same way for your second-round pick. The most basic way to handle it is to make a rank list of your top 16 players knowing you're guaranteed to get two of them.
Whether they're both wide receivers or running backs will be up to you. You can get one of each or two from the same position, but it might be for the best if you focus on a "best player available" approach.
That's what I did from Pick 9 in our recent mock draft.
My draft from the ninth pick:
1.09: James Cook, RB, BUF 2.04: Chase Brown, RB, CIN 3.09: Colston Loveland, TE, CHI 4.04: Jaylen Waddle, WR, DEN 5.09: Drake Maye, QB, NE 6.04: Parker Washington, WR, JAC 7.09: Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, TEN 8.04: Jordan Addison, WR, MIN 9.09: Rachaad White, RB, TB 10.04: Matthew Golden, WR, GB 11.09: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC 12.04: Romeo Doubs, WR, NE 13.09: Ray Davis, RB, BUF 14.04: James Conner, RB, ARI
Why Cook over Lamb? He was the best player available. I view Cook as the better Fantasy option overall. Cook hogs carries in a strong rushing offense, works at the goal line (when Josh Allen doesn't call his own number) and is efficient as a runner. Do I wish he averaged more than 2.4 targets per game? Of course, but he's made up for it the past two years with 32 total touchdowns.
Why not a receiver or a tight end in Round 2? Because Brown was the best player available. Frankly, I just thought Brown was better than Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Nico Collins and A.J. Brown. All of those pass catchers have wonderful upside, but we've seen 20-plus PPR upside with Brown when Joe Burrow's been on the field. Additionally, the Bengals defensive improvements should lead to more favorable game scripts for Brown. I think he could be in for a career year, but if you don't see it that way then going with a receiver is a fine decision. In fact I would have taken Rice if Brown wasn't on the board.
Why not a receiver in Round 3? Because, as I did with my first two picks, I went with the best player available. It helped that I didn't love any of the receivers, save for Waddle, who I thought I'd be able to land in Round 4. So taking Loveland and all of his juicy upside was an easy decision.
Do I feel bad about my receivers? Honestly, not really. I fully admit I don't have a stud No. 1 guy like literally every other team in this draft has. But I'm the only team with two top 10 running backs, a top three tight end and a top five quarterback. I even broke one of my rules to make it happen. As a result I am definitely light on receivers, but the hope is that Waddle and Washington -- two guys I am very high on -- outperform ADP. If I'm right, and if the rest of my team plays to expectations, I'll be formidable. Formidable, I say!
Favorite pick: Patrick Mahomes
Weird when your second quarterback is your favorite pick, but this is a rare case. You know exactly what Mahomes' upside is for Fantasy -- we saw it in the first half of last season. To expect him to be way short of that is total ignorance. He's a phenomenal thrower, he's surrounded by some quality pass-catchers (yes, even the old married guy at tight end), and even though Kenneth Walker III joined the team I still expect the offense to revolve around him. In fact, Walker might further enhance Mahomes numbers, both as a receiving option and as a guy who forces defenses to defend the run, opening up opportunities downfield. I liked all of my picks, but I drafted Mahomes as an insurance policy for a Maye regression, but also because if he goes right back to being awesome I could feasibly trade him (or Maye) for lineup help. I will take Mahomes in the double-digit rounds in every draft whether I need him or not.
Picks I might regret: Chase Brown & Colston Loveland
I don't regret getting these players, but I might regret not spending my second or third round pick on a receiver. Had I done that and still drafted Waddle, Washington and Robinson, I'd feel so much better about that group. And then I could have had a tight end like Isaiah Likely or even Mark Andrews later on. Are those guys like Loveland? No, but they're still solid starters to begin the season. I will not blame you if you don't follow my exact lead, but I also will tell you that drafting the best available players has long been a winning formula, not just for me but for thousands of Fantasy champions.
Player who could make or break my team: Jaylen Waddle
It's a leap of faith to believe a receiver who hasn't been a top Fantasy guy in three years suddenly becomes one. But I think the Broncos acquired Waddle with the vision of him becoming a true alpha. He's always had the speed and talent -- that's not up for debate. It's his health and the lack of increased opportunities in Miami that will scare off Fantasy managers. Not me. He's in Denver now, and it's a new playcaller in Davis Webb and an offensive mind shift that should help Waddle see opportunities on all three levels of the field. This wouldn't be the first time a receiver hogged targets in an offense overseen by Sean Payton, either. He also upgraded to Bo Nix at quarterback. If Waddle struggles, my team will be in a hole at receiver, but if he doesn't, my team is gonna be ... dare I say it again? ... formidable.
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