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A deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is teetering over steep demands from Tehran for the United States and vice versa.
Iran on Sunday said the agreement to set up new shipping lanes was in its final stages, but repeated that the vital waterway would only reopen once Washington met certain conditions. Those stipulations include that the U.S. withdraw its naval blockade, pay Tehran compensation for damages from the war, unfreeze the country’s assets, lift sanctions and permanently end the conflict against the regime and its regional allies.
President Trump, in turn, on Monday demanded compensation from Iran for “all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts,” as well as to the families of protestors the Iranian government has killed over the past 50 years.
He later amended his demand to insist Iran also be responsible for “the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!”
“I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The tit-for-tat is threatening to upend progress made in the Iran-Oman talks as the Trump administration presses the regime for its own concessions, even as Tehran’s demands largely fall within the framework of the initial deal it signed with Washington in June.
“Today’s response sounded to me like frustration kind of seeping out, understandably, because he’s in a pretty difficult position right now,” said Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Campbell added that in Iran reconstituting some of their demands made in a memorandum of understanding signed between the two sides earlier this summer, it’s putting Trump in a politically sensitive place.
“It’s going to be very difficult for him to claim any kind of a victory if, after all of this, the strait is reopened, but Iran now has more leverage over the strait, is now able to support itself better from the economic benefits of the strait,” he told The Hill. “It’s so close to the midterms, it’s going to, in essence, look like a loss” for Trump.
Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, likewise saw Trump’s lash out as “an expression of frustration” rather than a real bargaining position from the United States.
“Trump’s position is weakening, but then, as a result of that, [Iran is] pushing for more concessions from Trump,” Kelanic told The Hill. “But more concessions is harder for Trump to give, so he’s going to be less willing to give them. So it’s quite possible that no agreement comes out of this, and we don’t get much further.”
The Strait of Hormuz, through which flows a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments in times of peace, has been effectively closed by Iran since Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel began their war on the country. The strait’s closure has driven up the price of fuel and other goods in the United States, a blow to the Republican party ahead of the midterm elections.
Iran and the U.S., though not engaged in direct talks, are exchanging messages via intermediaries, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi.
Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Saturday that the two sides are working on setting up a traffic lane in the strait so that the ships that pass can pass through safely but warned the war is still “in the middle of the game,” and that Tehran would need to provide assurances that it would not fire on transiting ships.
“I do think that we’ve made some progress over the last few days,” Vance said before adding, “This thing is not over.”
Talks between Iran and Oman, meanwhile, have tentatively promised an agreement that could come within days and open a shipping lane in the strait. But Tehran has warned the waterway would not be fully reopened until the U.S. meets its demands.
Top Iranian security official Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr on Sunday laid out the country’s conditions, asserting it would not open the strait “until America corrects its behavior.”
Then on Sunday Aragchi said a deal on the strait was in the “final stages” but repeated that Washington needed to meet its certain conditions.
The stipulations appeared to ruffle Trump’s feathers, as he quickly demanded the U.S. would require its own compensation from the country for past misdeeds.
“They ask for money for the damage that we’ve done. I said ‘that’s a good idea. Well, we’re going to ask for money for the damage they’ve done over a 50-year period,’” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “If there’s damages to be paid, I think Iran should pay those damages.”
The president also continued to insist that the strait is “open now” as an ongoing U.S. Navy blockade in the Gulf is allowing “people in that we want to let in.”
“We control the Strait 100 percent. Now, can [Iran] make trouble? Yeah, they can make trouble, but they’re broke . . . and now they’re paying a price,” Trump added.
The back-and-forth is diminishing prospects for a quick deal, despite optimism last week that such an agreement was near.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly asserted that Iran cannot control access to the vital shipping lane. Top officials also have stressed that the U.S. would not make any immediate payments to Iran in past peace talks.
But even as the president is frustrated by a lack of offramp to a deeply unpopular, six-month war, he appears more driven by desire to make the best deal for himself, according to Kelanic.
“He wants to feel like he’s gotten something out of this. He’s the guy at the casino that’s gambled it all on red on the roulette wheel and he’s trying to gamble himself back to breaking even or doing better,” Kelanic told The Hill “There’s always that temptation or that that haunting fear that he could take a bad deal today, but maybe he’s missing out on some opportunity to find some way to get a better deal in the future.”
She added: “It’s really hard for presidents to take the loss. It’s how we ended up in forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq because, essentially in Afghanistan, nobody wanted to be the one that admitted defeat and came home.”
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