Slippage has seeped into Kentucky basketball. Even amid a year when the Wildcats won 22 games and made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament while dealing with brutal injuries to point guard Jaland Lowe and big man Jayden Quaintance, an ugly trend has reared its ugly head. Kentucky finished with a -2.4 net rating against high-major competition, per CBB Analytics.
It's the worst mark in the last 15 seasons of Kentucky basketball.
A 17-point drubbing by Michigan State at the Champions Classic. A 35-point dismantling by Gonzaga. A 25-point thrashing by Vanderbilt. Even Kentucky's final game was eerily fitting, featuring a toothless final 30 minutes in an 82-63 NCAA Tournament loss to a desperate Iowa State club that was scrapping and clawing to make the Sweet 16 without injured All-American forward Joshua Jefferson.
SeasonNet rating vs. high-major teamsCoachRecord, NCAA Tournament result2011-1221.3John Calipari38-2, Won national championship2012-131.3John Calipari21-12, Did not qualify2013-147.6John Calipari29-11, National championship game2014-1527.7John Calipari38-1, Final Four2015-1613.3John Calipari27-9, Second round 2016-1714.4John Calipari32-6, Elite Eight2017-185.4John Calipari26-11, Sweet 162018-1912.1John Calipari30-7, Elite Eight2019-207.7John Calipari25-6, NCAA Tournament not held2020-21-1.1John Calipari9-16, Did not qualify2021-2211.3John Calipari26-8, First round2022-233.2John Calipari22-12, Second round2023-248.5John Calipari23-10, Second round2024-250Mark Pope24-12, Sweet 162025-26-2.4Mark Pope22-14, Second roundThere's no doubt that the serious SEC-wide investment into basketball is the elephant in the room. The rest of the conference is committed (financially) to be way, way better. Kentucky has to level up, too. It may be Mark Pope's most daunting challenge yet.
Let's dive into the weeds of a revamped Kentucky roster that looks a bit more like a Pope roster.
Kentucky projected starting lineup
PG Zoom Diallo | 6-6 | 195 | Jr.
Diallo is shaping up to be one of the most important players on Kentucky's entire roster. The Washington transfer point guard has some Lamont Butler qualities, and Kentucky is banking on that bleeding into the rest of the roster. Diallo is tough, hard-nosed and a real competitor. He'll make mistakes and take his fair share of tough shots, but you never have to question the effort level or the care factor.
The challenge will be finding ways to scale down and blend into this mix. This Kentucky team doesn't need Diallo to take 18 shots a night to be successful, and refining that aggression and decision-making, both as a shooter and as a playmaker, will be paramount. Kentucky should be able to play Diallo off the ball for some stretches. Does that unlock a new level defensively? This team does not have that bulldog, point-of-attack defender who can take the toughest assignments every night. Will Diallo step into that shutdown role?
G Alex Wilkins | 6-6 | 170 | So.
It's all about the eye test with Wilkins. The lean, wiry guard has become a stone-cold baller after sprouting up from 5-7 as a high school sophomore. That late-bloomer path can be very lucrative, and Wilkins is the latest example. But everything is about to change for Wilkins. The SEC has nothing in common with the SoCon. His role is vastly different, too. At Furman, Wilkins rated in the 84th percentile in ball-screen usage. The ball was in his hands a ton, and he took a boatload of tough, pull-up 3-pointers. At Kentucky, he's expected to shift to more of an off-ball role. Pope is betting that Wilkins shooting 37% on 108 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season is a better predictor of how good a sniper he actually is.
Wilkins' value skyrockets for Kentucky if he becomes the dude on the ball. It will take time and Wilkins needs to pack on weight to his 175-pound frame to absorb the body blows that are headed his way, but he's entirely capable of surging past Diallo and becoming the go-to lead guard for this Kentucky club. I think you'll see it for stretches next year to give defenses a different look, but the full prophecy might not come to pass until 2027-28.
SF Milan Momcilovic | 6-9 | 220 | Sr.
Momcilovic is the coup of Kentucky's offseason. He makes hard shots look incredibly easy. One-foot fallaway jumpers. Movement 3-pointers with a defender draped all over him. Pull-up transition triples from the parking lot. He's got a ton of game offensively, and the fit with a Mark Pope offense that can free up big shooters should be strong. It's easy to envision this Kentucky offense having some fun moments in transition when Momcilovic can run the break and let 'er rip.
Plus, Momcilovic should be a bandaid for a halfcourt offense that rated just 14th out of 16 SEC teams in efficiency, per Synergy. Kentucky should be able to use Momcilovic in off-ball screens or even as a screener to create leverage.
But Kentucky needs more out of its highest-paid player to compete with the upper echelon of the loaded SEC. Momcilovic is a serviceable defender. Can he elevate at all? He's provided almost nothing on the boards. Can that ever change? He plays a clean brand of basketball, but the playmaking has never been a huge feather in Momcilovic's cap.
Momcilovic may not shoot 49% from downtown again — 3-point percentage is not a sticky stat, even for the best snipers — but Kentucky's entire shot quality should be much, much higher with Momcilovic on the floor.
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F Ousmane N'Diaye | 7-0 | 210
We'll see if Kentucky adds another difference-maker from the fifth-year senior market — Michigan State forward Jaxon Kohler would be a snug fit — but N'Diaye is currently expected to slide into Kentucky's starting lineup, especially after Kam Williams' foot injury required a second surgery. The Senegal product is a true 7-footer, but he's more perimeter-based. Pope has routinely engineered elite transition offenses, and that should be a major strength of N'Diaye's game. He runs the floor extremely fluidly, and he is a very capable 3-point shooter. Kentucky got 27 triples from its power forward combination of Andrija Jelavic and Mo Dioubate a year ago. That won't be a problem this year. Kentucky will have a true spacer at the 4 at all times.
It's the little stuff that will determine just how useful N'Diaye, now 22, is in his first season in the SEC. He was a sneaky-great offensive rebounder (1.9 per game last season in Italy). Offensive rebound, run the floor, hit open 3-pointers, make good decisions? All at 7 feet tall? That'll play.
C Malachi Moreno | 7-0 | 245 | So.
Moreno's intersection of elite size, rim protection, rebounding and playmaking is an attractive combination. The lack of physicality is one of the main detractors for this Kentucky roster right now. Moreno has to be the enforcer who goes nose-to-nose with some of the elite centers in this league.
The best part about Moreno's game is just how much better he can get, too. He left a ton of meat on the bone last year as an interior finisher. Moreno shot just 46% on layups. More time in the weight room, more confidence and slightly better concentration should help that number zoom up.
I'm also curious just how much more unscripted playmaking he can bring to the floor to make this offense less predictable. Moreno is clearly a high-IQ big man. He's not far away from being one of the Tier 1 centers in this league, especially if he rounds out his skill set and plays with even more force. If that happens, Kentucky has a chance to reach the peak of its powers and Moreno will be a first-round pick next June.
Off the bench
C Franck Kepnang | 7-0 | 275 | Graduate
Washington's two-point defense was poor when Kepnang was on the bench and stout (top-35 nationally) when he was on the floor. Defense is why he is at Kentucky right now. The 7-footer does have some scheme versatility, which should give Kentucky's staff some optionality to mix up its pick-and-roll coverages if needed. Kepnang can slide the puppies on the perimeter, but he's best-suited looming around the rim where he can be an impactful rim protector. He ranked third in Big Ten play in block rate last season.
But his offensive game is very limited outside of lobs and offensive rebounds. There's also serious injury risk. Kepnang will be a fine backup center, but it'd be a welcome surprise if he doesn't miss any time in 2026-27.
G Kam Williams | 6-7 | 210 | Jr.
Playing with actual point guards could do Williams a world of good. The 6-7 wing does not create much offense for himself, but he won't have to with Diallo and Wilkins in the fold. He has a real path to help this team in a major way as a 3-and-D wing, but getting healthy is the priority. Williams had a second surgery on his foot this offseason that has hindered his summer development. Williams has reiterated that he plans to be ready for the season-opener. If he can get right, Williams could flirt with 40% from downtown in 2026-27.
F Justin McBride | 6-8 | 250 | Sr.
The burly James Madison transfer should get plenty of tick for this frontcourt because he can shoot the basketball. McBride drilled 40% of his triples a season ago, and he can drive long closeouts and finish through contact. He could give Pope another offensive weapon to use in backdowns, too. Defenders just bounce off him at times. But his defense will decide just how many minutes McBride will play. He is really rickety on the perimeter defensively. He doesn't solve problems on that end of the floor. Quite the inverse, actually. There were far too many times when James Madison's defensive structure was fractured because McBride gave up a straight-line drive.
Guarding his yard will be essential if the veteran forward wants to stick in this rotation.
F Braydon Hawthorne | 6-8 | 195 | R-Fr.
Hawthorne is a big swing piece for Kentucky's ceiling outcomes. The 6-8 redshirt freshman is brimming with tools, but the physical development will make-or-break his chances to actually be a difference-maker in the loaded SEC. Hawthorne getting a full year in a strength and conditioning program should only help, but now it's time to compete for real minutes. You never want to drink too much of the offseason Kool-Aid, but there have been moments when you wonder if Hawthorne has the highest NBA potential on this roster.
G Jerone Morton | 6-4 | 190 | Sr.
The Washington State transfer has an uphill climb to carve out real minutes, but if he does, it'll be because of trust. The veteran guard is just a smart all-around player. If he can garner trust from this staff, they will find minutes for him. Morton shot 39% from 3-point range on 79 attempts last year at Washington State, and he can initiate the offense or slide to an off-ball role. He can also go get you a bucket in a pinch. It wouldn't surprise me if Morton plays a bit more than initial projections.
G Trent Noah | 6-6 | 225 | Jr.
Big shooters who don't turn it over will always be in demand, but the Momcilovic addition could have a major impact on Noah's minutes projection. Pope is not afraid to go 10 deep, so Noah will get some run, but it's hard to envision Momcilovic and Noah co-existing on the floor together. The defensive court coverage concerns
G Mason Williams | 6-3 | 210 | Fr.
Williams does not look like a freshman. The 6-3 point guard is yoked. But you have to be special on the ball to play point guard in the SEC as a freshman. Williams projects closer to a depth piece at this point with Diallo and Wilkins sopping up a ton of minutes at the 1. But Williams is going to be a good college player. His slithery drives and pull-up shooting prowess give him a real base. Plus, he's already earned the reputation of a tireless worker.
Skill and work ethic with real positional size is the stuff you want to bet on.
Filling out the roster
- Reece Potter | 7-1 | 235 | R-Jr.
- Zyon Hawthorne | 6-2 | 165 | Fr.
Market watch
Odds to win 2027 NCAA Tournament (via Fanduel): +4500, 24th-best odds
What is Kentucky's superpower this year? That's what may define whether Kentucky is just a good team or a great team in 2026-27. On one hand, you can see the vision where this offense is potent. Diallo, Wilkins and Moreno can all pass and Momcilovic can shoot the cover off the rock, so this halfcourt offense should create easier looks. You know a Pope-coached offense will score in transition.
There's enough here to be a top-25 offense with room for more if the Diallo-Wilkins pairing coalesces into something dynamic. But there are hot spots that are easy to pick out with this offense, too. Will Kentucky be an elite offensive-rebounding team? Probably not. Will Kentucky generate a ton of rim pressure? Probably not. Kentucky will be a good shooting team, but there could be some nights where jump-shot roulette leaves you out in the cold.
2027 college basketball national championship odds: Florida joins Duke as co-favorites to win NCAA Tournament Cameron Salerno
Questions remain on the defensive end, too. Just how good can this unit be? Kentucky will be tall and long -- its entire starting lineup is 6-5 or taller -- but it doesn't have a ton of bricks in its britches. Moreno and Kepnang will be rock-solid rim protectors, but who is that elite point-of-attack defender? Is this a top-25 defense? Maybe? But it'll take some good fortune and real buy-in from a bunch of new faces who have not played together.
You can be a really good team with a top-25 offense and a top-25 defense, but I'm not sure this roster has quite enough to be considered a legitimate national championship contender. The most recent recipe to make the Final Four includes either an elite frontcourt or a lottery pick at lead guard. Does Kentucky have either of those things?
Kentucky is a good team. I'd be surprised if it made the Final Four, though, unless a superpower is spawned.
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