SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
By Ross Kelly Mar 18, 2026 at 5:56 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images Four teams enter the NCAA Tournament 2026 with at least 31 victories. Three of them, Arizona, Duke and Michigan, earned No. 1 seeds in the 2026 March Madness bracket, while the other, Miami (OH), is an 11-seed. Meanwhile, the High Point Panthers own the sport's longest active win streak, prevailing in 14 straight games. Still, that's only good enough to slot them as a 12-seed in the West Region, with High Point putting its winning streak on the line against No. 5 Wisconsin.
Unless you've been tuned into mid-major play all season, it's hard to determine how strong these programs are, considering their lessened level of competition. That makes 2026 March Madness picks and 2026 March Madness college basketball predictions more difficult, unless you have the right 2026 March Madness advice to follow. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. Ohio State is 4-0 all-time versus TCU, and this year's Buckeyes are heavily reliant on their starters. Nearly 86% of their points come from the starting five, which is the third-highest percentage among NCAA tourney teams. TCU, meanwhile, has quite the resume with wins over No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Iowa State. It also has depth that Ohio State lacks as Jamie Dixon's squad boasts seven players who average 8.0 points or more, including David Punch, who's scored 24-plus in back-to-back games.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. The Big Ten and Big 12 were two of the best conferences in college basketball this season, with the former earning nine bids and the latter earning eight. However, this is one of only two Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchups in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. UCLA is coming off a 23-12 season where it went 13-7 in conference play and UCF went 21-11 and was 9-9 in its league. Tipoff for this matchup is scheduled for 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. The Cardinals can lean on a 29-4 all-time record versus USF, but Louisville HC Pat Kelsey is also 0-5 all-time in the Round of 64. The status of star Mikel Brown Jr. (back) looms large as he missed the last four games, and UofL is 16-5 with him compared to 7-5 without him. As for South Florida, it swept the American regular season and tournament titles and is riding an 11-game win streak. The Bulls also have five players averaging 11-plus ppg, which is tied for the most in Division I. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
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