SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds
By Blake Von Hagen Mar 18, 2026 at 6:41 pm ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images All four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four last season, but don't assume that means that chalk will reign supreme again as you fill out your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks. That was only the second time in March Madness history that all four top seeds won their regions. Meanwhile, there have been three instances since the field expanded from 32 to 64 teams in 1985 where there hasn't been a single No. 1 seed in the Final Four.
The No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament bracket 2026 are Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and they all have national title aspirations, but history tells us one or possibly even all of them might meet their demise. So which No. 1 seed has the best chance of cutting down the nets in Indianapolis and who are the 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams you need to be aware prior to entering 2026 March Madness picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Nova's won eight straight Round of 64 games but is making its first tourney appearance since Jay Wright retired. The Wildcats dropped all five of their games versus ranked teams this season, while Utah State didn't face a single ranked squad en route to a 28-6 record. It split its two matchups versus 2025 NCAA tourney teams as the Aggies rely on their interior scoring, ranking in the top 15 in both FG% and 2P%.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Hurricanes are having a magical season in the revenue sports, with the football team making it to the national championship game and the basketball team piling up 25 wins in Jai Lucas' first season at the helm. Meanwhile, Dennis Gates has now guided the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament in three of his four seasons with the program. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and it's a virtual home game for Mizzou with the game being played at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Both of these programs were runners-up in their respective conferences during the regular season, but put together a run to win their conference tournaments. Arkansas won the SEC to make John Calipari the first head coach to win that tournament with two different teams while Hawaii won the Big West. Darius Acuff had 30 points for the Razorbacks in their win while Isaac Johnson scored 22 points for the Rainbow Warriors in their triumph. Tipoff for this matchup is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Thursday. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.
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