Oregon vs. Boise State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Ducks face stiff test from Group of Six CFP hopeful

No. 2 Oregon begins its pursuit of an elusive national championship with a marquee battle against Pac-12 favorite Boise State on Saturday. The Ducks have reached national elite status under coach Dan Lanning and have won a combined 38 games over the past three seasons. With quarterback Dante Moore back for a final season, Oregon starts with its highest preseason ranking in program history. 

Boise State is in the midst of its own resurgence after winning its third straight conference championship. Now, the Broncos are headlining the new-look Pac-12 and hoping to return to the College Football Playoff. Led by quarterback Maddux Madsen, the Broncos are 27-4 in conference games over the past four seasons. 

When these two teams played in 2024, it previewed a pair of CFP appearances. The Broncos nearly stunned Oregon in a tight 37-34 loss. However, Madsen only posted 3.7 yards per attempt in his first major start. Can he right the ship the second time around? 

Oregon vs. Boise State: Need to know

This is the year: Oregon's been building to national prominence over the past several seasons, but 2026 is the year they have perhaps the best roster in the sport. The Ducks have eight players in the top 100 of the NFL Draft prospect rankings at CBS Sports, including two of the top 14 in QB Dante Moore and DT A'Mauri Washington. 

Running the dang ball: No one could replace Ashton Jeanty, but Boise State proved itself as one of the most dynamic rushing offenses in the country. Running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns to pace a top-40 rushing offense. Boise State has to work in a few extra offensive linemen, but the running game should again be a strength. 

Spurning the draft: The junior Moore received top draft grades and likely would have been the No. 2 pick had he entered the 2026 draft. Instead, he opted to return to Eugene to perfect his craft. Moore completed 72% of his passes for 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Moore was electric for Oregon during their run to the postseason, but eight of his 10 interceptions came against CFP teams. Can he clean things up? 

Where to watch Oregon vs. Boise State live

Date: Saturday, Sept. 5  | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET Location: Autzen Stadium -- Eugene, Oregon TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App  Streaming on Paramount+ 

Oregon vs. Boise State prediction, picks

Boise State gave Oregon a scare two years ago, but there's no obvious dimension in which the Broncos can take advantage of the Ducks on a major road trip. The Ducks boast perhaps the best interior defensive line in college football and will shut down the Boise State running game. Expect a low-scoring affair that ends with a dominant -- if not aesthetically pleasing -- Oregon victory. Pick: Under 51.5

SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 1 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season.