Warner Bros. / Universal Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Dune Part Three With the dust settling on a historic 98th Academy Awards, the cycle begins anew.
Our annual tradition of blindly forecasting awards season is meant to be fun and expectation-free. Still, looking at the theatrical calendar ahead, one thing is clear: the auteurs are coming in full force.
Sight unseen, Warner Bros. appears to have the most formidable lineup.
Alejandro G. Iñárritu reunites with cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki for “Digger,” a mysterious project starring Tom Cruise, who, after receiving an honorary Oscar this past year, could be invited back to the ceremony the very next year to take home a competitive one. Could he be the new Paul Newman?
Meanwhile, Denis Villeneuve will complete his sweeping sci-fi saga with “Dune: Part Three.” With the first two installments amassing a combined 14 nominations and eight wins, the finale is poised to be a dominant force in the technical races — and perhaps more.
CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 22: Director Quentin Tarantino and Brad Pitt attend the photocall for “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” Getty Images Netflix is loading up with a characteristically deep bench of awards hopefuls.
David Fincher directs Quentin Tarantino’s script in “The Adventures of Cliff Booth,” reteaming with Brad Pitt, who reprises the role that won him an Oscar. The project serves as a standalone chapter in the “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” universe. It could even arrive later this year under a different title. (Did anyone else notice the film’s title wasn’t shown during its Super Bowl teaser?)
Elsewhere, Greg Kwedar follows up the surprise success of “Sing Sing” with “Saturn Return,” a romantic drama starring Charles Melton and Rachel Brosnahan. Fernando Meirelles, the filmmaker behind the Brazilian drama “City of God” (2003), returns with “Here Comes the Flood,” starring Denzel Washington. And Greta Gerwig takes a bold swing with the adaptation of C.S. Lewis’ “Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew.”
A24 continues its run as an indie kingmaker with a formidable slate.
Lance Oppenheim could make a major leap with the investigative drama “Primetime,” starring Robert Pattinson and inspired by the book “To Catch a Predator.”
Matt Johnson directs the Anthony Bourdain biopic “Tony,” starring “The Holdovers” breakout Dominic Sessa alongside Oscar nominee Antonio Banderas. Meanwhile, Jesse Eisenberg writes and directs a musical starring Julianne Moore and Halle Bailey, produced by Emma Stone. If even half of these titles connect with audiences and critics, A24 could dominate the year.
Neon is positioning itself as a serious player across the prestige landscape.
Palme d’Or-winning filmmaker Cristian Mungiu returns with the drama “Fjord,” starring Sebastian Stan and recent best actress nominee Renate Reinsve. Twin filmmaking brothers Arie and Chuko Esiri offer a reinterpretation of “Mrs. Dalloway” with “Clarissa,” starring Sophie Okonedo.
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi follows his Oscar-winning international feature “Drive My Car” with the French-language drama “All of a Sudden,” which should be, at the very least, intriguing. Any one of these titles could emerge as a breakout at Cannes, Venice or Telluride.
Universal Pictures will bank heavily on Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” which arrives with a star-studded ensemble including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway and Lupita Nyong’o, and enormous expectations following Nolan’s historic success with “Oppenheimer.” The studio also has Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi project “Disclosure Day,” starring Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor.
Under the Disney umbrella is 20th Century Studios, with the anticipated “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” in which Meryl Streep reprises her Oscar-nominated role. Searchlight Pictures hopes to mount a comeback with Tony Gilroy directing the drama “Behemoth!,” starring Pedro Pascal. Martin McDonagh will surely make an awards play with “Wild Horse Nine,” starring John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell — a project that feels destined for a fall festival launch. And, of course, there’s Marvel Studios’ “Avengers: Doomsday,” which will explode at the end of the year.
The Sundance Film Festival already delivered an early contender in Beth de Araújo’s “Josephine,” starring Gemma Chan, Mason Reeves and Channing Tatum. Acquired by Sumerian Pictures, the film could emerge as this year’s breakout success story.
Courtesy of Amazon/MGM Amazon MGM Studios already has something promising with the Ryan Gosling-led space adventure “Project Hail Mary,” alongside “I Play Rocky,” the making-of story behind Sylvester Stallone’s 1976 classic. The film stars Anthony Ippolito and is directed by “Green Book” filmmaker Peter Farrelly. Lionsgate is also gearing up for “Michael,” featuring the King of Pop’s nephew Jaafar Jackson alongside Colman Domingo.
Sony Pictures will be looking to break back into the prestige realm with “The Social Reckoning,” the sequel to the best picture-nominated “The Social Network” (2010), with Aaron Sorkin directing and Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg. The studio could also find success with blockbuster fare such as “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” with Tom Holland returning as the web-slinging superhero.
From Sony’s boutique subsidiary, Sony Pictures Classics, the company already has Sundance breakouts to shepherd through the year, including the John Turturro vehicle “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” and “Bedford Park” from debut director Stephanie Ahn. It also has the U.S. release of the drama “I Swear,” which was at the center of the recent BAFTA Awards and BBC controversy, as well as Pedro Almodóvar’s Spanish-language return “Bitter Christmas.”
Focus Features will have a pair of documentaries from Oscar-winning directors: “The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist” from Daniel Roher (“Navalny”) and “Lorne” from Morgan Neville (“20 Feet From Stardom”). In the summer, it will release the war drama “Pressure,” starring Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser; a remake of “Sense and Sensibility,” starring Daisy Edgar-Jones; and another Robert Eggers film, “Werwulf,” reuniting Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Lily-Rose Depp. The studio could also have Paul Greengrass’ 13th-century period film “The Uprising,” starring Andrew Garfield, if it lands on this year’s calendar.
The 2026 calendar will mark Paramount Pictures’ first full-year slate under David Ellison, following the company’s acquisition in August 2025. In addition to blockbuster fare, expect the untitled prison film from “La La Land” Oscar-winning director Damien Chazelle, starring Cillian Murphy and Daniel Craig. The studio also has David Ayer’s action film “Heart of the Beast,” starring Brad Pitt and J.K. Simmons, which wrapped last summer. And while its awards prospects remain uncertain, there is considerable excitement surrounding Trey Parker’s musical comedy “Whitney Springs,” featuring Kendrick Lamar.
Indie studio Magnolia Pictures will look to capitalize on the Sundance hit “I Want Your Sex,” along with Kent Jones’ “Late Fame,” starring Willem Dafoe and Greta Lee, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival last year.
Bleecker Street has two anticipated titles that could generate buzz: Alex Gibney’s “Musk,” described as a “definitive and unvarnished examination” of Elon Musk, and an untitled project from Mike Leigh that is expected to debut later this year, featuring a potential standout role from Marion Bailey.
Among the wild cards still seeking U.S. distribution is Werner Herzog’s “Bucking Fastard,” based on the true story of twin sisters and starring Kate Mara and Rooney Mara in dual roles.
Joel Coen’s next solo outing, “Jack of Spades,” is already generating chatter and stars Josh O’Connor, who may be entering “overdue for Oscar love” territory.
‘Wildwood’ Animation will also play a major role in 2026. Pixar is already seeing success with “Hoppers,” while “Toy Story 5” is expected to be another box office juggernaut. Walt Disney Animation Studios will release “Hexed,” about a teenager with magical powers. Universal aims to position “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” in the awards conversation, while Illumination will try again with “Minions & Monsters.” DreamWorks Animation is generating early buzz for “Forgotten Island” from “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” director Joel Crawford.
Netflix has partnered with Brad Bird on “Ray Gunn,” which follows the last human private detective in a futuristic world, voiced by John Ratzenberger. GKIDS will also release the next Aardman project, “Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom.”
“Wildwood,” the long-awaited feature from Laika and director Travis Knight, will finally arrive this year, following the successes of “Coraline,” “Kubo and the Two Strings” and “Missing Link.” Warner Bros. Animation will also reveal a new take on Dr. Seuss’ “The Cat in the Hat.”
It remains unclear whether the hybrid film “Coyote vs. Acme” will qualify for the category, but anticipation remains high after Ketchup Entertainment acquired the shelved project.
Of course, there’s much more to consider from other studios, and there’s more to come from movies we haven’t heard about yet. See the very first guesses below.
See all Primetime Emmy predictions*** = PREDICTED WINNER (All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Universal “The Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix) David Heyman, Ceán Chaffin, Brad Pitt, Stacey Sher, Quentin Tarantino “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures) Tony Gilroy, Sanne Wohlenberg, John Gilroy “Clarissa” (Neon) Arie Esiri, Chuko Esiri, Theresa Park, Nicholas Weinstock “Digger” (Warner Bros.) Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Tom Cruise, Mary Parent “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) *** Cale Boyter, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve “Josephine” (Sumerian Pictures) Joshua Beirne-Golden, Gemma Chan, Beth de Araújo, David Kaplan, Josh Peters, Mark H. Rapaport, Marina Stabile, Channing Tatum, Crystine Zhang “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas “Saturn Return” (Netflix) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Emily Wolfe “Tony” (A24) Tim White, Trevor White, Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, Anie Overland
Alternates: “All of a Sudden” (Neon); “Artificial” (Amazon MGM Studios); “Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films); “Bucking Fastard” (U.S. Distributor TBD); “The Devil Wears Prada 2” (20th Century Studios); “Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation); “Here Comes the Flood” (Netflix); “I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios); “Is God Is” (Amazon MGM Studios); “The Invite” (A24); “Is God Is” (Amazon MGM Studios); “A Long Winter” (Mubi); “Look Back” (GKids); “Madden” (Amazon MGM Studios); “Musk” (Bleecker Street); “Misty Green” (A24); “Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew” (Netflix); “Outcome” (Apple Original Films); “Paper Tiger” (Front Row Filmed Entertainment); “A Place in Hell” (Neon); “I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios); “Primetime” (A24); “Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios); “The Social Reckoning” (Sony Pictures); “Toy Story 5” (Pixar); “Untitled Damien Chazelle Prison Drama” (Paramount Pictures); “Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical” (A24); “Verity” (Amazon MGM Studios); “The Weight” (Capelight Pictures); “Wildwood” (Laika)
