Senate control up for grabs: Survey

Campaign Senate control up for grabs: Survey Comments: by Julia Mueller - 07/01/26 11:38 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Julia Mueller - 07/01/26 11:38 AM ET Comments: Link copied

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Control of the Senate is up for grabs this November, according to new polling that shows Democrats highly competitive in six key upper chamber battleground states.

The New York Times/Siena Polls survey found Democrats leading the Senate races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is battling Republican Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and in Maine, where progressive Graham Platner hopes to oust Sen. Susan Collins (R).

Cooper boasts the biggest lead among the six battlegrounds surveyed, with 50 percent to Whatley’s 43 percent. Platner, at 49 percent, was up 2 points over Collins.

Democrat James Talarico and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are tied at 47 percent each in Texas, where Democrats are relishing the fact that the controversial prosecutor got the GOP nod over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R).

In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is 2 points behind President Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R) seat, with 46 percent and 48 percent, respectively.

Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola is just 2 points behind incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in a hypothetical Senate showdown, with 45 percent and 47 percent, respectively. The Last Frontier’s primary is in mid-August.

And in Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is 3 points behind Sen. Jon Husted (R), with 47 percent and 50 percent, respectively. Along with Alaska and Maine, it’s one of just a few true toss-ups in the high-stakes fight for Senate control.

The surveys are a strong sign for Democrats, who hope to capitalize on voter frustration with Trump and the economy, while benefiting from the historical trend of a sitting president’s party losing ground in the midterms.

Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate shows Democrats with a 4-point advantage on a generic congressional ballot.

At the same time, the New York Times/Siena survey shows that Republicans would be favored to hold the upper chamber if the election were held today.

Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the Senate this fall.

The polls were conducted June 15-29 among 3,659 voters across Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. About 600 interviews were conducted in each state. The margin of sampling error among likely voters is roughly 5 percentage points in each state poll.