Abdul El-Sayed speaks during a news conference at the Spirit of Detroit shortly after winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) With only about a month until the end of the primary season, progressives and democratic socialists have secured enough high-profile victories to suggest a seismic shift in the party’s direction. But the fuller picture tells a different story. The left-wing has won far fewer races than headlines suggest, and it remains almost entirely confined to safe Democratic districts.
According to an analysis from the New York Times, the progressive left has won less than 20 percent of primary races in open districts where Democrats are either strongly favored to win or expected to be competitive in November. Among these races, progressives have done quite well in solid-blue districts — winning roughly 80 percent of their primaries in safe urban seats — but have struggled to win in the battlegrounds that will actually determine control of Congress.
In other words, while blue districts are getting bluer, swing districts are going with what’s tried and true.
For instance, the same night Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in Michigan’s Senate primary, socialist Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) lost her bid to reclaim her House seat. Moderate Wesley Bell beat her by a striking 22 points.
And in Washington’s 3rd District, moderate incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkemp Perez (D-Wash.) advanced to the general election over her progressive opponent Brent Hennrich, more than doubling his vote share (37 percent to 17 percent).
Indeed, it turns out that the narrative of an unstoppable progressive wave is incomplete. Still, El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan warrants concern and a close examination for the Democratic party, precisely because it’s exceptional.
Unlike other progressive primary wins in this cycle, El-Sayed’s race took place in a swing state with critical general election implications. And unlike the safe blue districts where the left-wing has dominated, a Senate race in Michigan cannot be won merely by consolidating young, white, urban voters with college degrees or higher.
On the surface, El-Sayed’s win looks significant: He overcame a spending disadvantage of more than $60 million from outside groups supporting Stevens, proving that grassroots energy and national progressive backing can in fact compete with establishment money. But the margin of his victory — just one point (49 percent to 48 percent) — was far below the double-digit lead prior polling had suggested. And this tells a more cautionary tale.
El-Sayed’s narrow win illustrates the left flank’s core problem: Outside of deep blue districts, progressives’ appeal has hard limits, some of which show up most clearly where Democrats can least afford them to.
According to an analysis from Bridge Michigan, El-Sayed is the first Democrat to win a statewide primary in Michigan without carrying Wayne, Oakland or Macomb counties since Bernie Sanders won Michigan’s 2016 presidential contest. Stevens carried all three by about 6 to 8 points each, securing roughly 52 percent of the combined metro Detroit vote.
So in the very places where Democratic strength in Michigan is rooted, Stevens prevailed decisively.
Crucially, though, this dynamic is not unique to Michigan. It is the same pattern that produced Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in New York City and the primary defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.). It is a younger, whiter, better educated and wealthier coalition than the broader Democratic Party. Socialist candidates consistently underperform with the Black and Hispanic voters who have anchored the party for decades.
In a safe Democratic city, such a shift is survivable. But in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024, it could be fatal. If this primary cycle has shown the Democratic party anything, it is that the left wing has a ceiling — and its limits are somewhere around the boundaries of urban, heavily educated Democratic strongholds.
El-Sayed’s Michigan victory is an important exception, but it is still just one race, won by a single point in a state where Democrats have no margin for error. Whether that narrow coalition can hold in a general election remains an open question that the party cannot ignore.
And if it doesn’t hold in November, Democrats will have gotten a tough lesson about the cost of a leftward turn — one they will have to spend years recovering from headed into 2028.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.“
Add as preferred source on Google Tags 2028 election Abdul El-Sayed Adriano Espaillat Brent Hennrich Cori Bush Cori Bush cori bush primary Dan Goldman Democratic Party Democratic Primary Donald Trump Haley Stevens Haley Stevens left-wing groups Marie Gluesenkemp Perez Michigan Senate race Progressive Democrats Rep. Adriano Espaillat Rep. Dan Goldman Rep. Haley Stevens Sanders Wesley Bell Wesley Bell Zohran MamdaniCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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