Entering the 2026 NFL season, prognosticators had their choice of the two perceived NFC West frontrunners in projecting the eventual Super Bowl champion. The Los Angeles Rams were the popular pick because of their masterclass of an offseason, while the Seattle Seahawks were the logical "we can't bet against them until they give us a reason to" choice coming off their championship run.
Most everyone forgot about the other contender in football's strongest division.
Injuries derailed the San Francisco 49ers' 2025 campaign, but perhaps the fact that Kyle Shanahan still managed to lead his undermanned squad to a 12-5 record and a playoff berth should have served as an indication of the dominance to come. They are still not completely healthy, yet they are off to a 5-0 start and have the inside track to a division title and the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Perhaps their seemingly never-ending ailments will catch up to them again, but the same could be said for any team in the league. It is time to simply enjoy what the 49ers are doing and stop worrying about their ability to stay healthy. Frankly, they might just win the Super Bowl regardless of who is available. Through five weeks, it feels like their year.
Here is how the rest of the Super Bowl race shakes out as the season approaches Week 6.
Super Bowl odds entering Week 6
Odds via DraftKings, +2000 or better
- 49ers: +680
- Rams: +700
- Bills: +800
- Ravens: +800
- Chiefs: +950
- Seahawks: +1100
- Jaguars: +1200
- Bengals +1900
- Patriots: +2000
- Vikings: +2000
- Broncos: +2000
- Bears: +2000
Stock up: 49ers emerge as new favorites
No matter how you slice it, the 49ers look like the best team in the NFL. They are one of two 5-0 squads and own the widest point differential at +61. Their offensive EPA/play ranks second, behind only the Buffalo Bills, while their defensive EPA/play allowed is the league's fourth-best mark. This is as complete a team as there is in pro football.
Most impressive are the contributions San Francisco continues to receive from its most experienced players. While an aging roster comes with its health issues, it also represents a collection of proven, veteran talent. Christian McCaffrey. Trent Williams. Fred Warner. Everyone is in vintage form, including Mike Evans, who has a strong case as the most impactful free agent acquisition of the offseason with his 326 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Even George Kittle has been as reliable as ever despite being a mere nine months removed from a torn Achilles. A supreme collection of talent paired with a highly renowned coaching staff makes the 49ers the complete package.
These 49ers appear better suited than previous iterations to not only reach the postseason but finally break through for the franchise's first Super Bowl victory in 32 years. They already have a win over each of the other teams in the NFC West, making them the clear-cut top dogs in a division that was expected to be a season-long brawl. If they can make the Rams look foolish and beat the Seahawks on the road, there is no team they cannot defeat on the path to a championship.
Stock down: Bears desperately await Caleb Williams' return
Would the Chicago Bears be 5-0 if Caleb Williams did not get hurt in Week 2? Suppose he stays on the field for that critical fourth-quarter drive in the 9-3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He would have had at least two more looks at the end zone. If he were available in Week 5, the Bears probably would not throw three interceptions in a 31-7 rout at the hands of the bitter rival Green Bay Packers. That is all hypothetical, of course, but Williams' talent makes it fair to wonder.
Instead, the Bears are two games back of the NFC North lead and stand in the middle of the conference's slog of three-win teams. They seek a rebound effort on the heels of the second-worst loss of Ben Johnson's head coaching career. That will be harder to obtain with edge rusher Montez Sweat out for two games for a violation of the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy.
The good news (and Chicago needs some right now) is that Williams is on track to play in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons. His hamstring strain is behind him, which cleared the way for a return to practice on Wednesday. Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent kept the ship afloat but had clear limitations — most notably in the frustrating loss to the Packers — whereas Williams seems to be blossoming into a top-tier quarterback capable of leading his team deep into the postseason.
Long shot of the week: Steelers (+9000)
It was easy to sneer at the Pittsburgh Steelers in the offseason when they hired a past-his-prime coach, let Aaron Rodgers drag them along with his decision-making process as to whether to return for another year and got embarrassed by the Philadelphia Eagles on draft day. They say everything happens for a reason, and they might be onto something when it comes to the Steelers. All of those developments, somehow, seem to have played out perfectly.
The offense is cruising right now with Rodgers throwing for at least 235 yards in each of his last three games, and Jaylen Warren rushing for no fewer than 93 in that span. Rookies Max Iheanachor and Germie Bernard make it appear as though the Steelers actually benefited from the first-round snafu at the draft. McCarthy and Rodgers, despite their occasional butting of heads, are doing exactly what they did during their time together in Green Bay, while the defense does just enough to help them win or stay competitive. Last week's 34-22 win over the Indianapolis Colts was the best encapsulation of all that thus far in 2026.
The AFC North is anyone's for the taking, as all four teams are at least 3-2 and no better than 4-1. It will be as much of a grind as ever to take the division, but even if the Steelers fall short, they appear strong enough to compete for a Wild Card berth.
Week 6 games to watch
Seahawks at Broncos
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Either the Seahawks or the Denver Broncos will fall to .500 this week. That is not where either team envisioned standing through six games after their postseason runs a year ago. Seattle needs to get its ground game moving and has a prime opportunity to do so against the league's fourth-worst run defense, while Bo Nix — in the throes of a regression year — faces another difficult test in what is a gauntlet of a six-game start to the campaign.
Texans at Jaguars (in London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network, stream on Fubo
It took remarkable special-teams execution for the Jacksonville Jaguars to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in their first London game. They will need to execute better in the first 59 minutes of their second overseas contest to defeat a Houston Texans squad that is finally in the win column and ready to build momentum. The Jaguars might be the best Super Bowl contender outside of the league's top tier, and this is a chance to prove it against a division rival that should be better than its 1-4 record. Houston, on the other hand, needs every win it can find in order to pull off the rare feat of reaching the postseason after an 0-4 start.
Bears at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox, stream on Fubo
There was a chance this would be a clash between backup quarterbacks given Williams' hamstring issue and the rib injury Michael Penix Jr. sustained on "Sunday Night Football," but both are on track to play. This game will be more about the running backs, though. The Bears and Falcons present the two most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL, and the Falcons need theirs to outperform the other in order to secure their first home win of the year.
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