Takeaways from Knicks pausing contract extension talks: Is Josh Hart's time in New York running out?

Only the New York Knicks could crush the vibes of a championship run before even beginning their title defense season. Four notable members of the team, Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek, are eligible for contract extensions. While keeping the whole team together was always going to be a long shot, the Knicks announced on Friday that they would be tabling all talks until later in the season, forcing all four players to open the season with uncertain financial futures.

But what does this actually mean for the Knicks? Here are three quick takeaways on New York's sudden financial predicament.

1. Knicks lose critical option on new Towns deal

For now, the question with Towns remains less about whether he'll get a new deal from the Knicks and more about what that new deal will mean for everyone else. Towns is irreplaceable. There is no other offensive center like him in basketball that has not already won an MVP or will inevitably win one in the near future. 

New York let its only other viable starting center option, Mitchell Robinson, leave in free agency, and as we've learned from deals involving players like Ivica Zubac and Walker Kessler, getting a high-end starter at center, even below the superstar level, costs draft capital the Knicks frankly do not have. They'll figure something out with Towns. It's just a matter of when and what.

Knicks pause contract negotiations with Karl-Athony Towns, Josh Hart, others until 'later in the season' Robby Kalland

The Knicks have hoped to get Towns to take a substantial discount, as Jalen Brunson has. While he seems receptive to taking a deal below his $276 million max, the Knicks have seemingly not come close to an actual deal for him. While Friday's news doesn't necessarily preclude a below-market agreement down the line, it does deprive the Knicks of a critical bit of flexibility in how that deal is structured.

Players with multiple years left on their contracts cannot extend during the season. Before the season, however, extensions are fair game. This matters for Towns because he has a $61.6 million player option for the 2027-28 season. If Towns and the Knicks had gotten a deal done before the season, they could have essentially used that option to front-load Towns' new contract and have his salary decline meaningfully from there. 

However, should he sign an extension during the season, he would have to decline that option, and his new contract would have to be more balanced. A player's salary cannot increase or decrease by more than 8% annually within a single contract. Major raises and dips must be part of a new contract or extension.

Why is this a potentially preferred contract structure? Because New York's financial cliff isn't coming in the 2027-28 season. It comes a year later in the 2028-29 campaign. That's when Brunson and OG Anunoby will start new deals thanks to their player options. Brunson has already taken a substantial discount once. Don't expect him to do it again. Anunoby is about as irreplaceable as non-All-Stars get. Using that option, the Knicks could have gotten the most expensive year of a new Towns deal out of the way and saved as much flexibility for what comes after as possible.

This format isn't necessarily off the table. Towns could simply pick up his player option in the offseason and try extension talks again at that point. His value could also dip during the season, allowing the Knicks to re-sign him on more favorable terms. But it's always easier to get an extension done early when possible. The last thing the Knicks should want is their back-to-back title bid ruined by contractual sour grapes. 

In a perfect world, the Knicks would have preferred to have something done by now. This might not be their preferred structure, as a lower 2027-28 salary would make it easier to duck next year's second apron. But taking the option off the table, if only temporarily, costs the Knicks the flexibility they would probably have preferred.

2. It's time to start questioning Hart's future in New York

We should assume that Brunson's next deal will approach 35% of the cap. His discount won the Knicks a championship. Towns won't be quite that high, but it won't be far off either. Anunoby's player option for the 2028-29 season will pay him an estimated 26.2% of the cap, so a new deal probably starts in that range. Mikal Bridges is locked up at around 21% of the estimated cap at that point. 

Start doing the math. You're looking at around 110 to 115% of the cap for your top four players once everyone's deals are finalized. You should also assume that those deals are paying for fewer valuable years than their existing contracts do. Anunoby is going into his age-29 season. Brunson and Anunoby will play their age-30 seasons this year, and Towns his age-31 season. At best, you're paying for the back half of their prime. At worst, there will be real age- and injury-related decline. If the Knicks are going to continue competing for championships, they need to acknowledge that they probably need more than they currently have to do it (especially with Robinson already gone) and that they have less financial wiggle room to pursue possible upgrades.

So where does that leave Hart, the fifth starter and the heartbeat of the team? A lot depends on what sort of extension he's willing to take. The Knicks have a bit more flexibility on this front than with Towns because he has a team option rather than a player option. The Knicks could use that option to leverage their way into more favorable terms.

Still, Hart is the oldest of the five Knicks starters. He'll turn 32 during the season. His game is probably the least likely to age well, given his inconsistent shooting and borderline reckless physicality he plays with. The old axiom is that it's better to move on from a player a year too early than a year too late. It's hard to imagine the Knicks moving Hart this season as they pursue back-to-back titles, but hesitance on a long-term extension afterward would be understandable.

There isn't an in-house replacement ready. The Knicks under two different head coaches have resisted playing McBride with the starters because of how small his backcourt pairing with Brunson would be. Landry Shamet's shooting is nice in small doses and he's improved significantly as a defender, but similar problems exist there, and durability has been a concern for him. Perhaps the best possible developmental curve for promising second-round pick Mohamed Diawara could see him turn into a starter, and he's locked into a cheap, long-term deal, but he's a long way from adequately replacing Hart.

Realistically, the Knicks would either have to stumble into a player we don't see coming or make a trade involving their precious remaining draft capital (at this point, their only tradable first-rounder is in 2033), ideally for someone on a rookie deal now. This front office has surprised plenty of times, but at this moment, Hart is still essential to New York's championship upside. The more costly Towns becomes, though, the more realistic breaking up this starting lineup becomes. You can't keep everyone in the apron era, especially if you want to maintain any level of depth.

3. Deuce McBride is the likeliest trade candidate

McBride will almost certainly be the cheapest of the three Knicks we've covered thus far on his next deal. He certainly is on his existing contract. The Knicks wisely extended McBride on very team-friendly terms right after trading Immanuel Quickley, knowing that he had a bigger role upcoming. If they extend McBride before Hart, that might be a tell that they're considering repeating that process with him stepping into a starting role afterward.

In reality, though, we have to assume that Hart will be a higher priority than McBride. In that case, McBride represents an expiring contract at New York's deepest position. Not only do the Knicks have Shamet, Jose Alvarado and Kolek as viable backcourt reserves, but they have several veterans on camp deals (like Bruce Brown) fighting for a roster spot at that position as well. Meanwhile, the Knicks have very little center depth behind Towns, making McBride an obvious trade candidate to potentially fill that hole.

The tell here will be who winds up getting the final roster spot for the Knicks and how the early season goes thereafter. Say the Knicks keep a big man like James Wiseman and he proves to be playable early in the year. At that point, trading for another big becomes less of a priority. If Brown or Ochai Agbaji make the team, however, the Knicks would be left with just Towns and Andre Drummond at center unless they make a move to clear another roster spot. In that world, a McBride trade seems more likely.