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Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Fox News poll

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Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Fox News poll
Campaign Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Fox News poll Comments: by Finya Swai - 08/01/26 3:29 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Finya Swai - 08/01/26 3:29 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico appears to be winning support from a sizable block of Republican voters, according to a new Fox News poll released Thursday.

The survey found Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) 51 percent to 48 percent among voters — an encouraging sign for Democrats, who haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades.

Despite receiving President Trump’s endorsement over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Paxton’s string of legal troubles and scandals — including felony securities fraud charges, an impeachment and an extramarital affair — have made it difficult for him to unify the GOP.

Nearly one in four non-MAGA Republicans said they would instead vote for Talarico. Fox News’s Garret Tenney said Friday that these numbers give Democrats “some hope” that they could win in Texas, after the GOP primary appears to have left lasting damage for Paxton.

“The brutal GOP primary with John Cornyn is having a lingering impact on how voters feel about Ken Paxton — particularly Republican voters,” he said. “Why is that? Well, one reason is that more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than they are that Talarico is too extreme.”

More Americans said they were concerned about Paxton’s character than about Talarico’s ideology, which has been blasted by Republicans for being too progressive having backed transgender rights and Medicare for all.

The survey found 59 percent of overall voters from the deep red state had serious concerns about whether Paxton has the character to serve in the Senate, while 47 percent overall said they are concerned Talarico is too extreme.

Still, a candidate’s image does not appear to be the primary factor driving most voters. Roughly 80 percent of both Paxton’s and Talarico’s supporters said their choice is based mainly on the candidates’ positions on the issues rather than their personal qualities.

“About 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people,” the poll notes.

The Fox News poll was conducted July 23-27 among 1,006 registered Texas voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

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