What are we supposed to do with Paul Skenes? Through June of this season, he was just about the best young pitcher we'd seen since Dwight Gooden 40 years ago. But over his past 15 starts, he has a 5.06 ERA, with declining velocity to go along with mediocre (at best) production.
My typical inclination is to give Skenes the benefit of the doubt. Sure, I wouldn't want to rank him as a top-three SP like I was coming into the season, but given the much longer track record of him as one of the best pitchers in baseball, he deserves some benefit of the doubt, right?
I think so. I certainly won't rank him as if he's a 5.00-plus ERA pitcher. But man, it just doesn't feel like this is a normal slump. Skenes admitted to tweaking his mechanics throughout the season to try to rediscover his old form, and nothing seems to have helped much. He had a stretch in August where it looked like he might be figuring things out, but then he allowed five runs in his most recent start last week against the Royals of all teams. He has one start with more than five strikeouts in his past seven starts and just six with more than six strikeouts since his season took that turn in late June. He hasn't looked like an impact pitcher for an awfully long time.
And, honestly, the fact that both Skenes and the Pirates have maintained he is healthy throughout this whole stretch doesn't even make me feel better. If Skenes was battling through some kind of lingering-but-manageable injury, I could at least move forward with the hope that a fully healthy offseason would get him back on track. But this? A complete collapse without a good explanation – I don't buy the World Baseball Classic as a cause for why Skenes suddenly stopped pitching well three months after making two starts there, sorry – is a lot harder to make sense of.
Players typically don't just stop being good at 25 years old without an injury, but that's less true of pitchers, certainly. What makes pitchers so frustrating is that they often do just stop being good seemingly overnight; the other side of that coin, of course, is that sometimes pitchers just start being really good seemingly overnight. I can't dismiss Skenes' sudden dropoff quite as easily as I can someone like Vladimir Guerrero's, even though both are plenty concerning.
I haven't finished my pitcher rankings yet – keep an eye out for my first batch of rankings for 2027 next week! – but there's no way I can rank Skenes as a top-12 option at this point. Top 24 seems possible, but at this point, I'm leaning toward dropping him a bit below that. Taking such action could be a huge mistake, and a huge win for anyone who does take the risk on Skenes bouncing back. But right now, I'm not ready to make that bet.
The toughest players to rank at starting pitcher
Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
Woof, that's a big one up top. Crochet was a consensus top-three starting pitcher entering the season, then struggled for a month, went on the IL with shoulder inflammation, and still hasn't returned after suffering an additional lat injury. At this point, it seems like we'll see him in the postseason, though likely only as a reliever. That, frankly, won't tell us much about what to expect from the quality of his stuff as a starter in 2027, nor about his ability to actually stay on the mound, regardless of how effective he will be.
Crochet is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, a massive lefty with a funky delivery and a deep arsenal full of unhittable stuff. He's shown the ability to adapt his arsenal and improve both across and within seasons. He has even shown the ability to hold up to an ace workload—exactly one time in nearly a decade, dating back to college.
And there's the issue. Even if he's dominant this postseason and healthy next spring, does that tell us anything about his ability to stay healthy? Of course not. Any price for Crochet will be a calculated risk. If you draft him as the seventh pitcher off the board, there's room for significant upside; if you draft him 47th, it could be a totally wasted pick. The specific injury Crochet has been dealing with isn't the kind we typically associate with ruining a pitcher's career – this isn't a blown elbow or some structural shoulder issue that requires surgery – but it might be the precursor to all that. Or it might not be.
The uncertainty here, combined with the upside, makes Crochet maybe the toughest pitcher to evaluate for 2027. With that said, no matter where I end up ranking him, I don't think anything we see from him this postseason could move him up in the rankings, short of him emerging as an ace starter again.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners
Gilbert just hasn't seemed quite right all season, but it's not like anything specifically looks wrong. When you go pitch-by-pitch in his arsenal, everything mostly still looks good, with four different pitches with a 30% whiff rate or better, plus an above-average whiff rate on the four-seamer and pretty good results on balls in play. The four-seamer, splitter, slider, and changeup all rate out well by Stuff+, to the point where he actually has the best overall Stuff+ rating of his career, while still rating out well by command.
But his walk rate is up to a career-high mark, his strikeout rate has regressed from his career-best mark in 2025, and he's having as much trouble with homers as ever. It's hard to put your finger on exactly why things have gone wrong for Gilbert, but they undeniably have, resulting in his worst run-prevention marks since his rookie season. My theory is that Gilbert's reintroduction of his cutter and changeup this season has just messed with his feel enough to throw him off-center a bit. Not enough to immediately jump out as a glaring problem, but enough that he hasn't been quite the same guy as the innings have accumulated.
Gilbert is a tinkerer, and he plays in an organization that encourages tinkering, which is no small part of why he has emerged as such a good pitcher in the first place. But I strongly believe in the idea that pitchers can tinker their way out of greatness just as much as they can tinker their way to it, and that's my theory for what's happened with Gilbert. The good news is that the talent still looks intact, and that should be the most important thing. Gilbert and the Mariners will surely spend the offseason trying to figure out exactly why things went wrong and how to fix it, and I'm not going to give up on a pitcher this talented. He still has top-five upside and I'm interested in buying the dip in 2027 if he falls outside of the top 12.
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies
Luzardo was so close to making it through two straight seasons without injuries. Then he started feeling soreness in his left shoulder following a complete-game shutout against the Braves on Sept. 7 and hasn't pitched since. He has been cleared to throw, however, and hasn't even been ruled out for the NL Wild Card series next week, as an MRI showed no structural damage. So, we're kind of in a holding pattern with Luzardo, and it would be really nice to see him look like himself during a deep playoff run. That won't preclude the possibility of injuries derailing his 2027, of course, but it would at least be a sign that the injury is as minor as the team has said it is.
When he was on the mound, Luzardo was better than ever and almost certainly would have established a new career-high in innings – heck, he might have even gotten to 200 innings for the first time. He pitched right to his peripherals nearly across the board and was one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He was a true ace and might have been ranked as a top-five SP in 2027 without the injury concerns. As it stands, you probably can't justify a top-12 price, but it'll be tough to take him outside of the top 24, too.
Whether you'll actually be able to pull the trigger at that price will depend on your personal risk tolerance.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies
For a few weeks there, it looked like Wheeler's age and last year's surgery caught up to him all at once. His velocity crashed scarily in one start and he struggled to the tune of 23 runs in 24.1 innings of work, with the nadir coming on Aug. 24 when he gave up eight runs to the Mariners.
And then he just … fixed it. Beginning with an Aug. 30 start against the Angels, Wheeler hasn't allowed more than three runs in five straight starts, putting up a 1.71 ERA over his past five starts with 40 strikeouts to nine walks in 31.2 innings of work, which is basically exactly how he was pitching before that month-long hiccup immediately preceding it. That doesn't mean there are no concerns about Wheeler, or that we can totally ignore the downside he showed, especially at his age. But he's up to 156 innings with a 3.06 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate for the season.
That's not quite as good as he was before the injury, when he was a consensus top-five SP, and it's probably unfair to expect him to get back to that level again. His stuff isn't quite that good anymore, and it's hard to totally overcome that with pitchability and veteran guile. But you can largely overcome it, and Wheeler has done exactly that. I can't guarantee he won't just lose it entirely this offseason, but with how good he's been under extremely difficult circumstances this season, I don't think it makes much sense to doubt him at this point, either. He probably has to be ranked as a top-12 SP for 2027, despite the red flags and concerns.
Eury Perez, Marlins
It looked like Perez was finally figuring it out. In a 13-start stretch from May 22 through Aug. 22, Perez put up a 1.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with a 28% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate, putting most of his biggest flaws throughout his MLB career behind him. That he did this despite missing nearly a month with a hamstring injury (and returning without a real rehab assignment) made it all the more impressive. Perez has long had ace-level upside, and we figured that once it clicked, it would click for good.
Not so much. He has stumbled badly toward the finish line, putting up a 9.67 ERA over his past six appearances (five starts), with his control completely abandoning him (13% walk rate) and his homer issues coming back in a big way. This doesn't mean Perez can't be an ace – maybe he's just running out of steam amid a 30-plus inning jump from 2025 to a new career high of 150 and counting. But it does mean that he hasn't totally figured it out, and that's frustrating for a player with so much talent. He had a 4.25 ERA last season, which we chalked up to rustiness coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he heads into his final start with a 4.14 ERA and the peripherals to back it up.
Of course, Perez will still be just 23 on Opening Day and still has incredible stuff, and we saw how good he can be when it does click in. You can't draft him as if he's figured it out, but I don't think it makes sense to rank him as if he's just the sum of his final numbers this season. He's too talented for that, and he absolutely could be one of the five best pitchers in baseball if he figures it out for a whole season. I'm leaning toward ranking Perez as a top-24 SP for 2027, even if it makes me a bit uncomfortable.
Jared Jones, Pirates
All aboard the Jared Jones hype train! The Pirates have finally taken the restrictors off him and he has responded with the best run of his career, putting up a 1.08 ERA with 35 strikeouts to just four walks in 25 innings during September after a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Cardinals Tuesday night. Jones has long carried significant promise, but has rarely put together the kind of stretch that did anything more than tantalize and frustrate. And, honestly, it's possible this stretch will turn out to be nothing more than another tantalizing one before another series of frustrating ones. In fact, I'd probably bet on that being the case.
But know this: Jared Jones is going to be drafted as if this stretch is real. I saw Lance Brozdowski, whose analysis I highly respect, say he thinks Jones "should land as a top-20 arm" for 2027 in his newsletter this week, and he won't be alone. Jones has the raw stuff to be an ace – his fastball plays inconsistently because of its shape, but 98 mph is 98 mph, you know – and his control has actually been pretty good this season. That's especially true lately, but a 7.7% walk rate will play anywhere, especially with a near 30% strikeout rate.
Jones obviously has the talent to live up to a top-20 SP price, but I don't think I'll be the one to actually rank him that way. I can definitely see the case for it, but I need a stronger track record before I make that kind of pick. And Jones doesn't have it. Yet.
Logan Webb, Giants
Webb has always been a pretty weird pitcher. I've compared him to Framber Valdez in the past, in that he's an innings-eating, groundball type of ace, but he also shares a seemingly inherent inconsistency with Valdez, too. The final run prevention numbers have been pretty consistent over the years for Webb (before 2026, at least), but the way he got there would change from one year to the next, best exemplified by how he went from a 20.5% strikeout rate in 2024 to a 26.2% mark in 2025. The strikeout rate regressed in 2026, but his control remained nearly as good. He struggled through his worst full season ever, finishing with a 4.3 ERA in just 160.2 innings.
The most troubling thing is that Webb's groundball rate fell to 50.7%, still a very high mark, but also his worst since an eight-game stint as a rookie in 2019. There wasn't a sudden drop in velocity or change in his arm slot we can point to, and his sinker looked about as effective as ever, with a 2-degree average launch angle and .300 wOBA allowed. The biggest change appears to be in his pitch mix, as Webb's sinker usage ticked down in favor of more four-seamers and cutters. Those aren't even bad pitches for him, necessarily, but increasing their usage seems to fundamentally change something about Webb's profile in a way that doesn't work for him. It doesn't help that his sweeper was significantly less effective, dropping to a 24% whiff rate from 29% in 2025.
None of the changes for Webb look irreversible. He's gone through these stretches every season when he loses the feel for one pitch or another for a while, but he usually gets it back. I feel pretty good about his chances of getting the sweeper back and bouncing back in 2027, but the ceiling isn't so high for Webb that the bounce-back potential is worth overlooking the downside we just saw in action. I wouldn't be surprised if he drops down to around 40 in SP ADP, and I'll probably only rank him a little higher than that myself.
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