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President Trump is turning back to diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking a new deal with Iran that his administration failed to secure through waves of military strikes.
But the negotiations, which the president claimed would resume Monday, got off to a rocky start, with Iran denying any resumption in talks with the U.S., while pursuing a bilateral deal with Oman over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.
Diplomatic efforts have failed before, leading to a recurring pattern of U.S. threatening massive kinetic action before it is called off, a scenario that has played out at least five times since April.
Gregory Brew, an Iran expert with Eurasia Group, said the U.S. is both part and “outside” the Oman-Iran talks, as Tehran doesn’t recognize any kind of U.S. role in managing the waterway, yet any reopening depends on Washington ending its naval blockade.
“The Iranians have made it very clear they’re not going to reopen the Strait unless the U.S. de-escalates, unless the U.S. drops its blockade and likely provides other concessions,” Brew said in an interview with The Hill on Monday.
Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Iran seems to be eyeing a deal with Oman that has the backing of other Gulf countries, which it will then use to pressure the U.S. to lift its naval blockade.
“Iran could present it not just to the Omanis and the other immediate neighbors, but to the world as the only hurdle now to free and open shipping of the Strait of Hormuz is the U.S. naval blockade,” Campbell said.
“In any agreement that it would reach, I think both from a sort of geopolitical outmaneuvering standpoint, and also just from a lack of trust in Trump, Iran sees little need right now to engage in talks with the U.S. despite Trump’s persistent insistence that this is the case.”
Trump claimed on Monday that the diplomatic talks with Iran are ongoing and are being held at the request of Tehran and that they are expected “to go quickly, one way or the other.”
“It’s not very complex,” Trump said from the Oval Office. “We’re talking about the strait, the opening of the strait, having it open, literally by tomorrow. Completely open. And that’s phase one, and phase two is we then will talk about the nuclear capacity … the denuclearization of Iran.”
Pressed on how these talks are any different from previous negotiations, he replied: “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” adding the public will find out “today or tomorrow” how the discussions are going.
Iran said on Sunday the talks with Oman are focused on a new passage for tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The two nations traded maps of a potential route for vessels to get through the waterway, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said in an interview with Iranian state media.
Baghaei insisted the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war status, which has been a baseline demand of U.S. negotiators. While Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. controls the waterway, Iran for months has effectively set the terms for shipping traffic.
Ships looking to transit the Strait of Hormuz can pass through the northern route, one closer to the coast of Iran, which requires approval from Tehran and can take 48 hours. The other option is using the route closer to the Omani coast, where vessels face the possible threat of mines and aerial attacks.
The traffic in the waterway remained constrained, with nine ships successfully transiting on Sunday, down from 23 on Friday, according to international ship-tracking firm Kpler. Seven ships used the route closer to Iran.
Two proposals are being discussed in talks between Oman and Iran. One is a new route for ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The other involves a new system where vessels enter the Persian Gulf through the Iranian route and exit it via the Omani route, according to Brew.
“Essentially, a coordinated structure, a coordinated mechanism for managing traffic,” Brew said, adding that the latter proposal is more likely to yield an agreement.
Oman, which has been acting as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran for some time, finds itself in a difficult position, according to Brew. It sees a need to reach a deal with Iran because of their mutual position along the Strait of Hormuz, but also faces immense pressure from the U.S. and Gulf Cooperation Council countries to “not cave completely” to Tehran.
“It’ll have to get regional and U.S. buy-in, and then the U.S., as I mentioned, will also have to find some kind of off-ramp in the current confrontation with the Iranians,” he said. “Even if Iran reaches an agreement with Oman around what management of the Strait will look like, they’re not going to do anything to open the Strait until the U.S. backs down.”
The president said the U.S. would not allow Iran to charge ships for tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, touting the U.S. naval blockade in the waterway.
“They call it a wall of steel, the United States wall of steel,” Trump said Monday of the blockade.
Since the blockade’s resumption on July 14, U.S. forces have redirected 44 commercial vessels from entering or departing Iranian ports, while disabling two and boarding another two tankers to ensure compliance, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said in an update on Monday.
Trump has said the U.S. military was prepared to unleash the most devastating blow since World War II before he turned toward diplomacy over the weekend. Ultimately, he said he was talked out of it after calls from allies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Brew said the U.S. unwillingness to militarily escalate speaks to a lack of “good options” available to the Trump administration. The constant flip-flopping also reveals to Iran’s leadership that Trump is hoping to avoid a wider war and find a diplomatic offramp.
One obvious option for de-escalation is the U.S. conceding to Iran’s demands in the Strait, something that Washington has so far refused to do, insisting that a deal must also include Iranian concessions on its nuclear program.
The longer the standoff continues, the more the Trump administration comes under pressure from rising oil prices, declining approval ratings, dwindling stockpiles of munitions and frustration from Congress.
Another option is military escalation, supported by defense hawks inside and outside of Congress, but Brew warned that even if the U.S. military inflicts more damage on Iran, Tehran has proven it still has means to retaliate and damage regional infrastructure.
“I think that’s the key reason why the U.S. held off on escalating. Why it’s held off on escalating for not just the last several weeks, but really for the last several months,” he said, noting it was also why Trump received calls over the weekend from Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf leaders.
Campbell at the Middle East Institute said the Gulf powers are likely making the case that major U.S. strikes against civilian infrastructure in Iran are unlikely to make a strategic difference, while further alienating allies across the region. And bin Salman may be reminding Trump about the billions it has promised to invest in America.
“I think the sense is that he used some economic leverage over President Trump at the White House in insisting that they reconsider planned strikes it had for Iran over the weekend,” he said.
“Not only the Saudis, but the Gulf states in general, have been frustrated and disappointed with the way the last few months have transpired, and in particular the seeming lack of a voice in the White House when it comes to the prosecution of the war and the prospect for talks, and the fact that they’ve largely borne the brunt of the Iranian reprisal attacks thus far.”
On the other side of the debate, Iran hawks in Trump’s foreign policy circle argue military might is the only way to loosen Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz.
“They’ll try to waffle this any way that they can, so that they maintain some level of control over it, and it will not be satisfactory to the Trump administration, much less the nuclear enterprise as well, which I think is down the road and as difficult as the Straits of Hormuz happening,” Ret. Army Gen. Jack Keane said during his Monday appearance on Fox News.
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