Trump tariffs come back to haunt GOP as elections near

Administration Trump tariffs come back to haunt GOP as elections near Comments: by Julia Manchester - 07/25/26 5:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Julia Manchester - 07/25/26 5:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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President Trump’s newly announced tariffs could put Republican candidates at risk going into the midterms as Democrats seek to go on the offensive over the economic impact of Trump’s trade agenda.

The Trump administration announced Thursday it will impose double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners over forced labor violations.

Those duties went into effect Friday at midnight and came after the administration announced a 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian goods in response to what the administration said were “discriminatory” trade measures from Canada. The tariffs targeting Canada are slated to go into effect next month.

And on Friday, the president signaled yet more tariffs are coming, as he threatened a “substantial” tariff against the European Union over its $1 billion fine against Google for noncompliance with the Digital Markets Act.

The tariffs come as Republicans are facing an already difficult economic environment going into the midterms as voters grapple with inflation and rising energy costs.

A Fox News poll released Thursday found that only 33 percent of voters said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. A separate Economist/YouGov poll released earlier this week found that 47 percent of respondents said the economy is in a poor state, which is the highest level recorded by the poll since 2023.

A YouGov poll conducted on July 22 found that 46 percent of respondents said tariffs implemented by Trump have increased prices “a lot,” while 26 percent said the tariffs increased prices “a little.” Fourteen percent said the tariffs have had “no effect” on prices.

“This is going to be punishing for Republicans politically,” said Marc Short, former chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence and board chair at Pence’s conservative advocacy group Advancing American Freedom.

The group has come out strongly against the Trump administration’s tariffs during his second administration.

“The fact that you’ve turned so upside down, I think, is an exact reflection of his trade policy,” Short added, referring to Trump’s approval rating on the economy.

Democrats across the country have included their attacks on Trump’s tariffs in their broader messaging on affordability.

“The president of the United States just imposed a 50 percent tariff to increase your costs because he said Canada didn’t do enough to rake their forests,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said earlier this week.

Trump last week announced tariffs on Canada in response to smoke from wildfires in America’s northern neighbor, though the Trump administration has said the latest 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods were not related to the Canadian forest fires.

“The Democrats in California have their own affordability problems to mitigate but I guess the point is they’re doing it by citing tariffs, not just the war in Iran,” said Rob Stutzman, a California-based Republican strategist.

“I think you’ll see some examples of Trump tariffs being specifically cited in competitive seats,” he added.

Not all Republicans are convinced that Trump’s tariffs will have as big of an impact on voters compared with other economic issues.

“So far I’m not feeling a lot of impact related to tariffs. It really is more about gas prices than anything else,” said Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist.

Roe noted that tariffs are one of the few policy areas where Trump’s Republican Party is aligned with the labor movement, noting the United Auto Workers presence and influence in Michigan.

The Great Lakes State is home to competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in November.

“I think it’s something that has helped in this new MAGA Republican coalition,” he continued. “We have a lot more working people that like these policies, and think they will repatriate American jobs and make us more competitive.”

However, Michiganders across the board could feel the effects of Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on Canada, given the state’s proximity and trade relationship with the country.

Agriculture heavy states like Iowa have also felt the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which some warn could stand to hurt farmers.

Tariffs on imported metals like steel, aluminum and copper have led to increased production costs in the agriculture industry while Iowa’s soybean industry has been rocked by reciprocal tariffs with China.

Washington and Beijing have sought to roll back the tariffs. China has committed to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans through 2028.

The White House has also argued that tariffs on the metals will “more effectively address national security threats, spur investment in American agriculture, housing, and manufacturing, and facilitate U.S. production of related products.”

One Republican strategist familiar with Iowa races noted that Trump has been popular in the state, winning it in three straight presidential elections.

“You will have a ton of people who will say ‘yes, I understand these tariffs or the trade war back and forth, it is not good for my bottom line necessarily, but they will still support,” the strategist said, arguing his supporters understand Trump is fighting for new trade deals and pushing back on unfair trading practices.

“He’s fighting for the long-term viability of these farmers,” the strategist added.

It’s unclear what the long-term impact of the latest round of tariffs will be.

Legal challenges against Trump’s latest tariffs are already mounting. The Liberty Justice Center on Friday filed a lawsuit on behalf of a group of small businesses against the Trump administration over the tariffs on 60 U.S. trade partners.

The same organization won a major ruling at the Supreme Court earlier this year when the court struck down Trump’s global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

“I think it’s a continuing trend line of a lot of concern about actions from the White House ahead of November,” Stutzman said.

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