A wild year for the UFC continues with UFC 329 on Saturday from T-Mobile Arena. The event is headlined by the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor to the Octagon. McGregor will face former foe Max Holloway in a welterweight main event.
McGregor, who defeated Holloway in 2013, has been out of action since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier five years ago. That loss was McGregor's second consecutive defeat against Poirier and marked three losses in his four most recent fights, a stretch that dates back to McGregor's 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Holloway is coming off a loss to Charles Oliveira. That night, Oliveira took Holloway down over and over en route to a decision win that cost Holloway the "BMF" title.
With another big UFC event in store and the return of UFC's biggest star ever, there will no doubt be far more interest than normal in the event, including at sportsbooks. With that in mind, we've once again looked at all the event's main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
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After going 3-4 with our best bets for UFC Freedom 250, we are sitting just below .500 at 15-17 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend with the goal of getting back in the black, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney moneyline (-135)
My original feeling here was that the play would be McKinney via KO or submission, but that line is -140 at the time of writing, so it's actually the better price to simply take him to win. McKinney is the ultimate all-or-nothing fighter. He has never had a professional fight go to the judges' scorecards, and in 13 UFC fights, just two have gone past the first round. In fact, McKinney has five UFC fights that have ended in less than a minute. This is another fight that has every chance of ending quickly. In fact, under 1.5 rounds is -425. Green is a dangerous veteran who would be happiest to stand and trade with McKinney. Both men have flaws, but McKinney has a few more paths to victory, with a more explosive submission game, so we shade toward taking him with the moneyline pricing.
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Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh
Fight to go the distance: Yes (-150)
Kavanagh is coming off of by far the best win of his career after dominating Brandon Moreno in a Fight Night main event in February. Kavanagh was excellent in five rounds against a multi-time former champion that night. He now faces a former title challenger as a strong -218 favorite. Kavanagh isn't a great finisher, with 50% of his wins going to decision, including all three of his victories in the Octagon. Royval has only won four fights by decision, but I don't believe he'll be dictating how this fight plays out and taking the fight to go the distance feels like a solid play that keeps a potential Royval upset in play in some form.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista over 1.5 takedowns landed (+100)
I think this is a very tough fight to call. Sandhagen is a consistent bantamweight who just hasn't been able to break through to holding a championship while Bautista is a fighter on the rise who has shown some flashes of brilliance. My favorite line for this fight is Bautista landing two takedowns or more. Sandhagen has decent but not great takedown defense. Bautista averages just under two takedowns per fight and Sandhagen has been taken down at least twice in six UFC fights, including several that he won. With Sandhagen as the better pure striker, I think Bautista goes for plenty of takedowns and likely lands a few, even if he can't hold Sandhagen down.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett moneyline (+130)
Saturday is a real "prove it" moment for Pimblett. He took a beating against Justin Gaethje to kick off the year, but that doesn't look as bad in retrospect. He's not getting a light touch for this fight, with Saint Denis being on a real tear of late, with four straight finishes of tough opponents. Saint Denis may be the better fighter overall, but I do think the toughness Pimblett showed against Gaethje will be the deciding factor. I don't trust Saint Denis' cardio to hold up if Pimblett can push the pace and absorb punishment. In a race to see who fatigues and cracks first, I think Pimblett has the advantage. This is a very good fight on paper and should be plenty exciting, but give me Pimblett at underdog prices.
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
Max Holloway moneyline (-225)
McGregor can win this fight. He is the bigger man, more experienced at lightweight and is still a vicious striker. Unfortunately, he's barely fought in the past decade and has been on the shelf for five years after a brutal broken leg suffered against Dustin Poirier. Holloway is active, a great boxer and shown to have far better cardio than McGregor across their respective careers. McGregor will be at his most dangerous in the opening round, and if he can't get a stoppage there, his chances of getting a win start declining pretty rapidly. Holloway has the tools he needs to win, as long as the jump to welterweight doesn't prove to be too much for him, either in speed, power or cardio. Holloway at -225 feels like a good enough price to take.
Who wins McGregor vs. Holloway, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 2018, and find out.
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