UFC Fight Night predictions -- Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: Fight card, odds and expert picks

Brendan Allen isn't interested in being anyone's stepping stone. "All In" once again puts his top-five middleweight ranking on the line against someone with more to gain. Allen welcomes rising contender Christian Leroy Duncan to the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas.

Allen (27-7) can't seem to get ahead, even when he's winning. The longtime middleweight contender is riding a three-fight win streak, but finds himself fighting backward in the rankings again. Allen is understandably frustrated. He'd prefer to fight someone above him, but waiting around won't get him closer to a title shot. That's how he drew Duncan, a dynamic contender who beat Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier Those are impressive wins, but Allen warns Duncan against reading too much into them.

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"I'm not Roman Dolidze. I'm none of those guys," Allen told CBS Sports. "There's a reason I'm still here: 20 UFC fights against some of the best guys that I could get. His best bet is to catch me with something on Saturday night. Other than that, I'm going to beat him up. I'm going to make it a dogfight. I'm going to get in his face, and I'm going to test him.

"None of these guys have really tested him like that. Gregory [Rodrigues] did, and look how that turned out. I think I'm a different monster. The best thing I can do is to go out there and be myself."

Duncan (15-2) is finally putting the pieces together. The Englishman has spent more than half his professional MMA career in the UFC, learning on the job against increasingly difficult competition. Consecutive wins over Dolidze and Cannonier have given him the confidence to make a run at the top of the division. He knows Allen's grappling pedigree is legitimate and that he can make fights ugly. But Duncan believes his recent opponents have prepared him for those challenges, even if Allen doesn't.

"Roman Dolidze: his background and specialty is jiu-jitsu or grappling. Same with Brendan Allen; he's very well versed in that area," Duncan told CBS Sports. "Cannonier is very durable, so that taught me how to deal with a durable fighter that also wants to push the pace and engage.

"I came into the UFC so green, and the fights that I'm getting now, I'm taking a lot from them. Outside of the cage, I'm around some great mentors. The rate at which I'm evolving and learning is now putting me in a position to prepare for the top level and somebody like Brendan Allen."

Elsewhere on Saturday's card, Malcolm Wellmaker desperately needs to get back on track. Once considered one of UFC's most promising newcomers, Wellmaker has suffered consecutive losses to Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz. A third straight defeat would raise serious questions about his future.

All-action veteran Niko Price makes his final walk against Leon Shahbayzan, the younger brother of UFC middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan, on the preliminary card. Another UFC sibling, Ismael Bonfim, also competes on the prelims. His younger brother, Gabriel Bonfim, headlines a Fight Night card next month against Sean Brady.

Let's take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Brendan Allen -125

Christian Leroy Duncan +105

Middleweight

Matheus Camilo -185

Jai Herbert +154

Lightweight

Loopy Godinez -238

Ketlen Souza +195

Women's strawweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 10 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET (Main card), 5 p.m. ET (Prelims) Location: Meta APEX -- Las Vegas TV Channel: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: You have to feel for Allen. He tends to fight to the level of his competition, rising to the occasion and making Reinier de Ridder quit, but struggling more than he should against Chris Curtis and Edmen Shahbazyan. Now he's fighting another dangerous contender down the rankings. Duncan is clearly improving, but his grappling gives me pause. Dolidze and Cannonier took him down eight times combined, with Dolidze enjoying decent control time. Neither veteran is what he once was, and Allen presents a much tougher grappling test.

This is Duncan's fight to lose on the feet. Allen absorbs more significant strikes than he lands and isn't much of a knockout threat. Duncan has the tools to put him away early with a highlight-reel finish. However, the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Allen. He's been fighting five-rounders since his regional days. Duncan told CBS Sports that he always trains for 25 minutes, but Saturday could be his first time actually fighting that long. There's a difference. Duncan has never been finished, so I'll lean towards Allen grinding out a decision. A late submission wouldn't shock me either. Pick: Allen via unanimous decision