Temporary vacancies rise for first time in two years, permanent job placements stabilise and temporary billings rise further
Rob Wood, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said rising employment and wage gains suggest the Bank of Engand’s monetary policy committee needs to be cautious.
There may be an element of a “Burnham Bounce” in the survey, as the drop in temporary hiring and rise in permanent in July—usually a sign of falling uncertainty—sits oddly with the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East in July. So Sentiment could easily drop back somewhat.
Wage growth accelerated to the strongest since January, and the permanent salaries index lies above the 52.3 average seen in 2025, suggesting there has been no slowdown in pay growth over the past 18 months. Vacancy growth recovering and staff availability high but easing slightly also point to a labour market beginning to steady.
Despite ongoing uncertainty it’s encouraging that businesses are starting to press ahead with investment, which means across the board we are starting to see the data moving in the right direction. This is most pronounced in the continued rise of temporary work, where employers have been looking at flexible approaches and hiring has been growing for several months, and permanent hiring is starting to turn a corner.
Rays of light are beginning to break through for the job market as employers revive hiring plans. Temporary vacancies are up for the first time in two years, while recruiters’ revenue from supplying temporary workers has risen for a fourth consecutive month.
Remarkably, this is the first month without a decline in permanent placements since Liz Truss resigned as prime minister in 2022, underlining just how prolonged the downturn in permanent hiring has been. That makes it all the more important that the government takes decisions now that build business confidence and momentum in hiring.
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