UK inflation stays at 3% in February as petrol prices fall and food inflation eases, before Iran war drives up global energy costs
Food price inflation in the UK has also eased, but the Food and Drink Federation warned this could the “the calm before the storm,” as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to push up food prices again, becaue of higher energy and fertiliser costs.
Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3% last month, down from 3.6% in January. Prices fell in nine categories, with the largest drops for: olive oil (-10.4%), flours (-8.3%) and pizza (-4.9%).
While food inflation fell slightly in February 2026, I am concerned that this is the calm before the storm. The longer the conflict in the Middle East goes on, the bigger its impact will be on food prices. With food and drink price inflation already running above historical averages, heightened energy, maritime fuel and fertiliser costs will put further pressure on prices.
Food and drink is an essential, bought by every household, every week. While it can take several months for cost rises to filter fully through to shop shelves, the cost of the Iran conflict will be felt by shoppers this year. If government is serious about tackling the rising cost of living, it must provide our industry with at least the same support as other manufacturing sectors. The current energy shock is yet another structural shock our industry will have to absorb, on top of the Ukraine war, the costs of realigning food law with the EU once again, and new regulatory burdens.
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