The Rams' Super-Bowl-or-bust season has started, for the most part, bust, given their great expectations.
Everything went wrong in a Week 1 blowout loss to the 49ers, from the travel plan to the on-field product to the health problems that emerged from it: Myles Garrett underwent knee surgery, and Puka Nacua missed several weeks with a hip/groin issue. Los Angeles blew out the Giants in Week 2 after Jaxson Dart left early, but collapsed in Week 3 against the Broncos and needed a late comeback to overcome a sloppy first 50 minutes against the struggling Eagles.
The Rams are 2-2 — hardly the end of the world, but not looking close to a championship winner. One of the biggest reasons is that Matthew Stafford doesn't look close to what he was during his MVP-winning 2025. If the Rams want to live up to their superteam reputation, it starts with him.
Matthew Stafford's struggles: Turnovers, accuracy issues
Stafford was at the peak of his powers last season in several facets, but perhaps the most impressive was his lack of turnovers. He threw just eight interceptions, and his 1.3% interception rate was the lowest of his career.
He's already up to six interceptions this season — only Drake Maye has more — and his 3.7% interception rate would be his highest since his 2009 rookie season. It's been a combination of bad throws and bad decisions.
The crushing pick-six he threw to Talanoa Hufanga in Week 3? "Yeah, that was forced ... Hufanga did a really nice job of kind of fighting through the Y, and [I threw] just a little bit back behind [my target]."
The two picks against the Eagles? "Obviously, I don't ever want to turn the ball over like the first one. It was a physical mistake; the ball kind of sailed on me. On the second one, I just got too aggressive. ... I put that ball in a bad spot ..."
jumped the pass, ran a lot, took the lead What an effort by Talanoa Hufanga 🙌 pic.twitter.com/9xvvAC6uoF
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2026
The aggressive mindset is ingrained in Stafford. He wants to and can make the big-time throws. The big issues arise when you combine that mindset with inaccuracy. Stafford's off-target rate so far this season is 14.8%, on pace for by far his highest rate since PFF started tracking the stat in 2017. He's only been above 13% once, and he was at 10.9% last year.
Five of his six interceptions this year have been overthrows, underthrows or behind his target, per PFF.
Five of his six interceptions have also been on throws 10+ yards downfield, and that's arguably a more concerning issue. Stafford has a 28.3% off-target rate on throws at least 10 yards downfield this year. That's also on pace for his worst mark, and it's nearly double his rate from last year (15.5).
So was last year just an absolute heater? It's a little bit of both. From 2017-25, Stafford's off-target rate on throws 10+ yards downfield was 20.7%. He should regress toward that mean this season, even if he doesn't absolutely light it up like last year.
There have been several close misses, too. In Week 4, Stafford almost had the touchdown throw of the year to Davante Adams, but the normally sure-handed wide receiver dropped it in the back of the end zone. He also just missed Adams on another deep ball (the ball glanced off an outstretched Adams' hands) and missed Konata Mumpfield by a couple of yards on another deep ball. These are the types of throws that littered his MVP-season highlight reel last year.
Matthew Stafford almost had the touchdown throw of the year Sunday. pic.twitter.com/uNq4UDXS1u
— Zach Pereles (@zach_pereles) October 8, 2026
Stafford's downfield accuracy and turnover issues should improve. For him to perform at a career-worst or near-career-worst level this season would be a stunner. It would eliminate the Rams as a Super Bowl team, and the offense will struggle all season if it's the case. Stafford has had some stretches where he turns it over a lot. Normally, it balances out.
How Puka Nacua, one play-calling shift could help
Nacua will really help this offense; it doesn't take a football genius to know this. He had nine catches for 125 yards and a rushing touchdown against the Eagles. Since Nacua entered the NFL, Stafford has a significantly higher EPA per play, yards per attempt and explosive pass rate with Nacua on the field compared to with Nacua off it.
Another return that could help Stafford? The play-action dropback game. Last year, 37% of Stafford's dropbacks used play action. This year? It's 23%, on pace for his second-lowest mark as a Ram. Similarly, Stafford has only been under center on 44% of his snaps this season, down from 60% last year. His rollouts are also down, something ESPN's Ben Solak pointed out earlier this week.
There doesn't appear to be any reason for the lack of under-center and/or play-action plays. McVay hasn't addressed it, nor has he been asked about it, according to the team's press conference transcripts this season. Stafford doesn't appear to be any less mobile than he has been recently. Furthermore, the Rams lead the NFL in rushing success rate, which, one would think, would make play action even more effective.
Maybe McVay gets back to arguably the best weapon in his and Stafford's arsenal. It simply doesn't make much sense that he hasn't leaned on it heavily this year.
Why Matthew Stafford can shred the Bills' defense, get back on track
The win over the Eagles was more important than impressive. There's the major difference between a 1-3 record and 2-2, obviously, but the Rams also overcame themselves — turnovers, drops, penalties — and the rain, and Stafford got his first win over a Vic Fangio-coached defense. Sometimes there are just matchups great quarterbacks can't solve; Fangio has been that for Stafford.
It was also important for the Rams to see that when they needed it most, they could have it. Here were the Rams' final two non-kneeldown drives:
- 10 plays, 98 yards, touchdown
- 10 plays, 79 yards, touchdown
Across those two drives, Stafford was 12-for-15 for 140 yards. He hit Nacua on a deep ball and had two beautiful back-shoulder throws to Tyler Higbee.
"There's no style points in this league, but I do think a lot of growth can come from this," McVay said.
Stafford will need to be closer to that end-of-game level in Week 5 against the Bills, who have a high-powered offense of their own. There's a good chance for Stafford to have his best game yet. The Bills ...
- are 29th in defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate
- are 27th in explosive play rate allowed
- have allowed 17 completions of 20+ yards, tied for second-most in the NFL through four weeks
Christian Benford is dealing with a toe injury and missed last week's loss to the Patriots. In that game, the previously struggling Maye threw for 269 yards and three scores, and New England's previously struggling offense scored 29 points. Maxwell Hairston gave up two touchdowns and left the locker room early without speaking to reporters. Slot cornerback Dee Alford suffered an ankle injury and did not return.
Stafford should have a great chance to exploit this defense and build on his finish to Week 4. If he can, the Rams will start to look like the powerhouse they were expected to be entering the season.
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