Stephen A. Smith issues an apology to Michigan for underestimating the team and its men's NCAA tournament chances. (2:27)
Arizona and Michigan will head into the Final Four deadlocked as the favorites to win the NCAA men's basketball tournament and at nearly a pick 'em for their head-to-head showdown, with Illinois and UConn battling it out as the underdogs.
The Wildcats and Wolverines are both +175 to take home the national championship, while Illinois (+400) and UConn (+550) trail right behind, according to DraftKings odds. Michigan had the second-best odds going into the tournament at +370 and Arizona had the third best at +380; the Fighting Illini and Huskies were outside the favorite tiers going in at 22-1 and 25-1, respectively.
All of those teams were chasing Duke, which came into the tournament favored to win it all at +360. The Blue Devils were upset on a thrilling last-second 3-pointer by UConn, which was 16-1 to win the game as its longest point. The comeback was so improbable that FanDuel Sportsbook actually posted lines for a Duke-Illinois Final Four game.
One bettor with Caesars Sportsbook in New Jersey sweated out a $300,000 pregame wager on UConn at +205 odds ... a net of $615,000 after the Huskies completed the comeback.
UConn has been bet on the futures market both before and throughout the tournament, with BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle calling Dan Hurley's squad the sportsbook's only remaining liability. The book took a $25,000 wager earlier in the season at +900 odds, as well as a $50,000 wager on Arizona at +450 odds, which would each net $225,000 if successful. At FanDuel, the Huskies have attracted the most bets to win the national championship overall, as well as the most within the past 24 hours by tickets and handle.
BetMGM mentions that its best result would be Michigan winning the national championship, though Arizona or Illinois would also be winners for the book. In general, sportsbooks will be pulling for the favorites from here on out.
"We will be rooting for the winner of the Arizona-Michigan semifinal to take care of business in the final. We've spent all season trying to build a good position on these teams (and Duke, but that's another story), and hopefully it will pay off," Circa Sports race & sportsbook manager Chase Michaelson told ESPN over email. "I would consider Arizona or Michigan excellent results. Illinois is bad, UConn is worse."
Michaelson adds that interest in Illinois has expanded during its run, with BetMGM also reporting its most handle (38.1%) backing the Illini since the Sweet 16.
For the semifinal games, Arizona opened as a very slight 1.5-point favorite over Michigan, but that line has since flipped to Michigan -1.5. On the other side, Illinois opened -2.5 against UConn and has maintained that position through early betting.
DraftKings reports early action backing the Huskies against the Illini, with a majority of bets and handle on UConn's moneyline and spread; theScore Bet also notes more tickets backing UConn +2.5, though there's a positive handle split toward Illinois -2.5. Arizona-Michigan is much more of a toss-up at this stage, with little consensus from the public on who will win or cover.
"This is as close as it can get," Michaelson said. "These are two of the best teams we've seen in quite some time, in terms of a mix of NBA talent, college experience and coaching... In most years, either of these teams would likely be odds-on favorites to win the title by this time, but they have to play each other."
