The NFL regular season is upon us. Reflecting on the rookie class and the role each player is expected to take on this season, CBS Sports examines the candidates to win Rookie of the Year honors.
It is important not to focus solely on the favorites. Neither Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan nor Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger, the reigning Rookies of the Year, was the favorite to win the award prior to last season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
- RB Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals: +550
- RB Jadarian Price, Seahawks: +600
- WR Carnell Tate, Titans: +600
- QB Fernando Mendoza, Raiders: +700
- WR De'Zhaun Stribling, 49ers: +1100
Over the past 10 years, five quarterbacks, three wide receivers and two running backs have won Offensive Rookie of the Year. No tight end has ever won the award. A running back has not won since 2018, when Saquon Barkley of the Giants was crowned. The past eight winners were first-round picks.
A pair of former Notre Dame running backs are among the favorites to win the award this season. In a year when the two quarterbacks drafted in the first round may not play the majority of the season and wide receiver production is uncertain without a bona fide No. 1 option, Love should be viewed as the heavy favorite. He dealt with an ankle injury during the preseason but showed a willingness to play through those issues in college and did not miss time.
The only hesitation with Price is that Seattle used a platoon system last season even with a player of Kenneth Walker III's caliber. Will the rookie be able to produce at a level that moves Rookie of the Year voters without being the focal point of the offense?
There have been 13 running backs drafted in the first round over the past 10 years. Of those, 12 played at least 13 games -- Omarion Hampton was the exception -- and averaged 1,181.2 yards and 8.2 touchdowns on 265.4 carries. When Alvin Kamara and Barkley won the award in back-to-back years, they averaged 1,017.5 rushing yards, 773.5 receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns.
Neither Mendoza nor Simpson will start Week 1, and the outlook for either seeing the field during the first half of the season is meager. Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart and Saints quarterback Tyler Shough drew consideration last year despite playing 14 and 11 games, respectively.
Tate was the highest-drafted wide receiver, but his preseason was not all that inspiring, and Wan'Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley may siphon targets from him. Saints wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is already dealing with soft-tissue injuries that disrupted his collegiate career.
Stribling is interesting because San Francisco has already lost Ricky Pearsall, creating a bigger opportunity for him within the offense.
Sleeper to watch: WR KC Concepcion, Browns (+1800)
KC Concepcion CLE • WR • #1 TAR0REC3REC YDs27REC TD0FL0 View Profile KC Concepcion touched the ball on five of his 24 preseason snaps. Jerry Jeudy is a bigger name, and Denzel Boston has garnered the most buzz among Browns pass catchers this preseason, but Concepcion profiles as a high-volume target in Todd Monken's system. With Monken as the Ravens offensive coordinator last season, 53.4% of Zay Flowers' targets were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia.
Two deeper sleepers who are, at the very least, good values are Caleb Douglas (+7500) and Chris Bell (+6000), both with the Dolphins. Someone has to get targets in Miami's offense, and the primary competition right now is Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington.
What does an Offensive Rookie of the Year season look like for a wide receiver over the past 10 years? McMillan, Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase averaged 78 receptions for 1,191 yards and eight touchdowns.
2026 NFL rookie grades: How Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson and every first-round pick performed in preseason Josh Edwards
Defensive Rookie of the Year
- EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Buccaneers: +450
- EDGE David Bailey, Jets: +500
- S Caleb Downs, Cowboys: +700
- LB Sonny Styles, Commanders: +750
- LB Arvell Reese, Giants: +900
Over the past 10 years, six edge rushers, two linebackers and two cornerbacks have been named Defensive Rookie of the Year. A defensive tackle has not won the award since Aaron Donald of the St. Louis Rams in 2014. A safety has not won the award since the turn of the century. Pass rushers are the overwhelming favorites to win the award, and those six players averaged 8.6 sacks as rookies.
Eight of the past 10 winners were first-round picks.
When sorting through the pass rushers, Bain plays on a better team and may get more opportunities to rush the passer than Bailey, who showed more during the preseason.
Downs, Styles and Reese all played at Ohio State. As a safety, it is difficult to build an impressive stat line over the course of a season. Downs could very well be the best at his position and still not get fair consideration for the award. Styles is interesting because his athletic potential is immense. Playing for defensive coordinator Daronte Jones, a disciple of Brian Flores' attacking front, he may have a greater chance to accumulate sacks and create turnovers.
Reese is equally gifted but does not play for a coordinator as fond of using his linebackers to rush the passer. There is also less of a need with Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns already filling that role.
Sleeper to watch: EDGE Malachi Lawrence, Cowboys (+2200)
Malachi Lawrence looked good during the preseason and showed multiple ways to get after the quarterback. One factor weighing against him is playing time. The UCF product will share time with Rashan Gary and Donovan Ezeiruaku. If he needs to reach nine sacks to build a case similar to those before him, will he receive enough pass-rush snaps?
Chiefs edge rusher R Mason Thomas (+6500) showed glimpses of his potential throughout the preseason. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is aggressive as well. Thomas is expected to serve in more of an auxiliary role rather than as a three-down starter.
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