SportsLine's model simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising early picks
By Daniel Lewis Apr 20, 2026 at 9:53 am ET • 3 min read 
Imagn Images Major season got off to a thrilling start as Rory McIlroy defended his championship at Augusta to win his second straight Masters. Up next is the PGA Championship, which tees off on Thursday, May 14 from Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Scottie Scheffler, who finished second at both the Masters and this past week's RBC Heritage, is the defending PGA Championship winner after he prevailed by five strokes at Quail Hollow last year.
The latest 2026 PGA Championship odds via FanDuel list Scheffler as the +340 favorite (risk $100 to win $340), with McIlroy (+750), Jon Rahm (+1400) and Bryson DeChambeau (+1600) among the other early 2026 PGA Championship contenders. Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
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Now that the 2026 PGA Championship field beginning to take shape, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or PGA DFS lineups.
2026 PGA Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2026: It projects that DeChambeau barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 Masters and then struggled mightily in Mexico City this past weekend, falling 16 shots behind the lead before withdrawing with wrist discomfort. He has recorded three straight top-five finishes at the PGA Championship, but has also missed the cut twice and finished outside the top 30 two other times at this event. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects a strong showing from Tommy Fleetwood, who has longer odds at +2000. The 2025 Tour Championship winner is still looking for his first major win. He's in strong form this season, however, recording four top-10 finishes. He was contending for another top-10 at the Masters this year before a fourth-round 76 dropped him down the leaderboard. Fleetwood has strong metrics off the tee this year, but has struggled with his putting, so if he can have a better weekend on the greens, he has a great shot to be a contender. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 PGA Championship picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one going off much higher than 20-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +340 Rory McIlroy +750 Jon Rahm +1400 Bryson Dechambeau +1600 Xander Schauffele +1700 Cameron Young +1800 Ludvig Aberg +1900 Tommy Fleetwood +2000 Collin Morikawa +2200 Justin Thomas +2200 Matt Fitzpatrick +2500 Justin Rose +2700 Viktor Hovland +3000 Chris Gotterup +3300 Patrick Cantlay +3500 Brooks Koepka +3500 Hideki Matsuyama +4000 Joaquin Niemann +4000 Tyrrell Hatton +4000 Ben Griffin +4500 Patrick Reed +5000 Shane Lowry +5000 Corey Conners +5000 Russell Henley +5000 Sepp Straka +5500 Jordan Spieth +5500 Robert MacIntyre +6000 Jake Knapp +6000 Akshay Bhatia +6500 Tony Finau +6500 Daniel Berger +6500 Jason Day +6500 Max Homa +6500 Sam Burns +6500 Sungjae Im +6500 Cameron Smith +6500 Marco Penge +6500 J.J. Spaun +8000 Si Woo Kim +8000 Wyndham Clark +8000 Gary Woodland +8000 Minwoo Lee +8000 Maverick McNealy +8000 Will Zalatoris +8000 Dustin Johnson +8000 Jacob Bridgeman +8000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Harris English +10000 Rickie Fowler +10000 Brian Harman +10000 Aaron Rai +10000 Denny McCarthy +10000 Sahith Theegala +10000 Keith Mitchell +10000 J.T. Poston +12500 Taylor Pendrith +12500 Nicolai Hojgaard +12500 Davis Thompson +12500 Adam Scott +12500 Ryan Fox +15000 Thomas Detry +15000 Dean Burmester +15000 Sergio Garcia +15000 Byeong Hun An +15000 David Puig +15000 Mackenzie Hughes +15000 Tom Kim +15000 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +15000 Andrew Novak +15000 Rasmus Hojgaard +15000 Stephan Jaeger +15000 Garrick Higgo +15000 Thorbjorn Olesen +20000 Tiger Woods +2000
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