SportsLine's model simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed its surprising picks
By Daniel Lewis May 11, 2026 at 7:55 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images Major season got off to a thrilling start as Rory McIlroy defended his championship at Augusta to win his second straight Masters. Up next is the PGA Championship 2026, which tees off on Thursday, May 14 from Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. Scottie Scheffler, who finished second at both the Masters and this past week's RBC Heritage, is the defending PGA Championship winner after he prevailed by five strokes at Quail Hollow last year.
The latest 2026 PGA Championship odds via FanDuel list Scheffler as the +480 favorite (risk $100 to win $480), with McIlroy (+850) and Cameron Young (+1200) among the other early 2026 PGA Championship contenders. Jon Rahm (+1500) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) are the only other golfers going off lower than +2000.
Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship picks, or making any PGA Championship DFS picks or One and Done predictions, be sure to see the 2026 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 PGA Championship field beginning to take shape, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or PGA DFS lineups.
2026 PGA Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2026: It projects that DeChambeau barely cracks the top 10 despite being one of the early favorites. DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 Masters and then had to withdraw from LIV Golf Mexico City with wrist discomfort in April. He has recorded three straight top-five finishes at the PGA Championship, but has also missed the cut twice and finished outside the top 30 two other times at this event. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model projects a strong showing from Tommy Fleetwood, who has longer odds at +2500. The 2025 Tour Championship winner is still looking for his first major win. He's in strong form this season, however, recording five top-10 finishes. He was contending for another top-10 at the Masters this year before a fourth-round 76 dropped him down the leaderboard. Fleetwood has strong metrics off the tee this year, but has struggled with his putting, so if he can have a better weekend on the greens, he has a great shot to be a contender. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 PGA Championship picks
The model is also targeting several other longshots, including one going off around 60-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 PGA Championship odds, favorites
Get full 2026 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +480 Rory McIlroy +850 Cameron Young +1200 Jon Rahm +1500 Xander Schauffele +1600 Ludvig Åberg +1800 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Bryson DeChambeau +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2700 Collin Morikawa +4000 Patrick Cantlay +4000 Brooks Koepka +4000 Min Woo Lee +4500 Justin Thomas +4500 Nicolai Højgaard +5000 Justin Rose +5500 Russell Henley +5500 Tyrrell Hatton +5500 Adam Scott +6000 Viktor Hovland +6000 Si Woo Kim +6000 Sam Burns +6000 Chris Gotterup +6000 Rickie Fowler +6000 J.J. Spaun +6000 Patrick Reed +6500 Robert MacIntyre +6500 Kurt Kitayama +7000 Maverick McNealy +7000 Jordan Spieth +8000 Shane Lowry +8000 Sepp Straka +8000 Joaquin Niemann +10000 Hideki Matsuyama +10000 Kristoffer Reitan +10000 Harris English +10000 Akshay Bhatia +10000 Gary Woodland +10000 Ben Griffin +10000 David Puig +10000 Thomas Detry +10000 Alex Fitzpatrick +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Jacob Bridgeman +10000 Alex Noren +12500 Jason Day +12500 Alex Smalley +12500 Harry Hall +12500 Matt McCarty +15000 Sungjae Im +15000 Corey Conners +15000 Sahith Theegala +17500 Pierceson Coody +17500 Michael Thorbjornsen +17500 Aaron Rai +17500 Nick Taylor +17500 Wyndham Clark +17500 Rasmus Højgaard +17500 Brian Harman +17500 Ryan Gerard +22500 Samuel Stevens +22500 Keith Mitchell +22500 Marco Penge +22500 Daniel Berger +22500 Sudarshan Yellamaraju +22500 Taylor Pendrith +25000 Tom McKibbin +25000 Ryan Fox +25000 Jordan Smith +25000 Michael Brennan +25000 Ryo Hisatsune +25000 Angel Ayora +25000 Max Homa +25000 Bud Cauley +25000 J.T. Poston +25000 Jayden Schaper +35000 Haotong Li +35000 Daniel Hillier +35000 Dustin Johnson +35000 Aldrich Potgieter +35000 Ricky Castillo +35000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +35000 Andrew Novak +35000 Max Greyserman +35000 Michael Kim +35000 Matt Wallace +35000 Cameron Smith +35000 Nico Echavarria +35000 Andrew Putnam +50000 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +50000 Bernd Wiesberger +50000 Denny McCarthy +50000 Stephan Jaeger +50000 Richard Hoey +50000 Lucas Glover +50000 Stewart Cink +50000 Billy Horschel +50000 Patrick Rodgers +50000 Max McGreevy +50000 Ian Holt +50000 Austin Smotherman +50000 Mikael Lindberg +50000 Sami Valimaki +75000 Chris Kirk +75000 Johnny Keefer +75000 Casey Jarvis +75000 Steven Fisk +75000 John Parry +75000 Matti Schmid +75000 Garrick Higgo +75000 Jimmy Walker +100000 Braden Shattuck +100000 Bryce Fisher +100000 Jhonattan Vegas +100000 Michael Block +100000 Y.E. Yang +100000 Luke Donald +100000 Ben Kern +100000 Elvis Smylie +100000 Timothy Wiseman +100000 Jared Jones +100000 Paul McClure +100000 Derek Berg +100000 Garrett Sapp +100000 Ryan Vermeer +100000 Dan Brown +100000 Adam Schenk +100000 Francisco Bidé +100000 Austin Hurt +100000 Padraig Harrington +100000 Adrien Saddier +100000 Emiliano Grillo +100000 Martin Kaymer +100000 Kota Kaneko +100000 Ben Polland +100000 Brian Campbell +100000 Shaun Micheel +100000 Jason Dufner +100000 Jordan Gumberg +100000 David Lipsky +100000 William Mouw +100000 Michael Kartrude +100000 Joe Highsmith +100000 Mark Geddes +100000 Davis Riley +100000 Tyler Collet +100000 Chris Gabriele +100000 Andy Sullivan +100000 Zach Haynes +100000 Travis Smyth +100000 Ryan Lenahan +100000 Kazuki Higa +100000 Chandler Blanchet +100000 Jesse Droemer +100000 Brandt Snedeker +100000
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