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Three dozen states are holding elections for governor in November, teeing up a test in several of the battleground states President Trump won in 2024.
Swing states like Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin are key bellwethers for the national mood around the White House, the economy and the political parties writ large.
Two Midwestern states have also emerged as tests for the two parties, with Republicans eager to flip Kansas now that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited, and Democrats seeing an opening in Iowa.
Unlike federal races, which can easily get swept up in national issues, voters have treated gubernatorial races more personally, making some of them ripe for ticket splitting.
Here’s a look at the five governor’s seats most likely to flip this fall:
Kansas
Kelly, a uniquely strong Democrat in the largely red-leaning Kansas, is term-limited and unable to run for reelection, offering Republicans their best chance this cycle to flip a governor’s mansion.
Seven Republicans are running for the chance to win the GOP nod on Aug. 4, with Trump endorsing Kansas state Senate President Ty Masterson (R).
The other Republicans running are Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, businessman Philip Sarnecki, former state Rep. Charlotte O’Hara, business owner Stacy Rogers, and Nick Reinecker, who’s listed his wife as his running mate.
State Sens. Cindy Holscher (D) and Ethan Corson (D) in addition to Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog are all vying for the Democratic nod.
Trump’s endorsement has played a critical role in helping most Republicans win their primaries, though several of his endorsees in governor’s races this cycle were ultimately unsuccessful.
Sarnecki has raised $2.5 million, the most of any candidate, according to the latest state campaign finance data available. However, that also includes $2 million he loaned his campaign.
Schwab has raised $1.4 million, more than $1 million of which he loaned his campaign. Masterson has raised just shy of $700,000.
Corson, who’s raised the most of the three Democrats, raised more than $900,000. The next campaign filing reports aren’t due until July 27, making it hard to see how candidates have been faring financially since the end of last year.
Trump won the Sunflower State by 16 points in 2024, meaning Republicans are likely favored to flip this seat in the fall. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the seat “lean Republican.”
Iowa
Democrats haven’t won a governor’s race in Iowa in two decades, but the party is feeling bullish this November about nominee Rob Sand, the state auditor who enjoys bowhunting and quotes the Bible during campaign stops. He’s also the only statewide elected Democrat in Iowa.
Sand will face Republican businessman Zach Lahn, who defeated Trump’s preferred pick, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), in the GOP primary.
Lahn is campaigning on bread-and-butter GOP issues like getting rid of “political indoctrination” in schools and tighter immigration laws, like blocking the state and its universities from hiring immigrants with H-1B visas.
But Lahn’s campaign platform also includes items that are naturally bipartisan, including tackling cancer in the state and reversing Iowa’s migration of young people who have left the state in droves in recent years.
Sand has sought to put Lahn on defense, arguing the conservative businessman doesn’t live in the state full time. Lahn, who co-founded a private school in Kansas, according to the Kansas Reflector, has a home there because he has children from a previous marriage that he regularly visits, according to KTIV’s “Inside Iowa Politics.”
Republicans have attacked Sand following recent reporting that the Iowa City school system’s audit in fiscal 2024 showed that close to $40 million had been moved around without proper approval. Sand noted that most public schools, including in Iowa City, use private auditors, not the state, to oversee how money is used.
Cook rates the Iowa governor’s race a “toss up.”
Nevada
Gov. Joe Lombardo was the only Republican to flip a governor’s seat in the 2022 cycle — a midterm election that was originally forecast to be a red wave that later turned into a red ripple.
But Nevada’s politics and its tourism and hospitality-driven economy, which are particularly sensitive to a turbulent economy, make it a ripe opportunity for Democrats to flip the seat back.
Nevada is known for split-ticketing. Trump won the Silver State in 2024 by 3 points even as its voters reelected Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) to the Senate. Lombardo won his first election in 2022 even as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) also won another term.
The state is also unique in that its tourism and hospitality-dominated industry means its voting electorate is very transient, requiring candidates and officials alike to repeatedly introduce themselves to new voters. That makes the state particularly sensitive to inflation and economical concerns like higher gas prices, which have since started to drop.
About 30 percent of its population is also Latino or Hispanic — a voting bloc that has started to sour on Trump in his second term.
Those conditions should theoretically help Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee for governor.
Lombardo, however, has been savvy enough to strategically keep his distance from Trump when needed and was able to overperform expectations in his first race. Republicans have sought to hammer Ford for his out-of-state travels.
Cook rates the race a “toss up.”
Georgia
Healthcare executive and billionaire Rick Jackson is set to face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in the highly watched race to replace outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp (R), a potential 2028 GOP contender.
Bottoms handily defeated six other candidates in the May 19 primary, so much so that she avoided a runoff for the Democratic nod entirely.
Jackson, once a name known only in GOP donor circles, took Republicans by surprise by entering his party’s race late and using millions to essentially launch himself into first place — defeating Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R).
Jackson has leaned into his rags-to-riches backstory, in which he grew up in multiple foster care homes before later helming his own business. He’s also suggested that because of his wealth, he won’t be beholden to special interests.
Bottoms has focused on cost-of-living issues and expanding Medicaid, while attacking Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which slashed the federal workforce significantly.
Bottoms is buoyed by the fact that Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is also on the ballot this November — one of the marquee Senate races this fall. He’s likely to have downballot coattails for the former Atlanta mayor while her campaign is likely to energize Black voters in the state — part of the backbone of the Democratic Party’s voting bloc.
But Jackson’s personal wealth — he spent more than $90 million in the GOP primary alone, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact — means he’ll easily be able to flood the airwaves again heading into November. His win is also likely welcomed by the Republican Governors Association, which can instead funnel its money into other competitive races.
Wisconsin
Two-term Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced last summer that he wouldn’t be seeking a third term — delivering some good news for Republicans who see the Wisconsin Democrat as a formidable opponent.
Trump endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) in January, clearing the field early for the congressman. Meanwhile, some of the front-runners emerging on the Democratic side include Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist.
While public polling has largely been scarce, a WisPolitics/State Affairs straw poll that surveyed attendees at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s convention in June found Rodriguez at close to 28 percent, with Hong in second at 23 percent. Some polling from earlier this year also showed Hong with an edge.
Rodriguez did receive a boost last month when Missy Hughes, former head of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp., suspended her campaign to back the lieutenant governor instead.
While Democrats have a strong shot at holding the governor’s seat in November, infighting and the recent momentum democratic socialists have gotten in other races could potentially help get Hong across the finish line. If that’s the case, the democratic socialist tag might offer a tougher climb for Democrats to win the gubernatorial race in the fall.
Cook rates the seat as a “toss up.”
Add as preferred source on Google Tags 2026 midterm elections Catherine Cortez Masto Cindy Holscher Jacky Rosen Laura Kelly Randy Feenstra Rob SandCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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