Image source, EPAByChris MasonPolitical editor- Published4 minutes ago
Reform UK begin their annual conference in Birmingham a bigger party than they were a year ago, their numbers swelled at Westminster, at Holyrood, in the Senedd and in local authorities.
But they also gather amid significant political headwinds, much of which revolve around money.
There was that whopping £5m gift to Nigel Farage from Christopher Harborne, the Thailand based British billionaire, and the long running row about whether the money should have been declared by Farage once he became an MP.
Then there is, among other things, the Metropolitan Police investigation into donations to the party during the last general election campaign.
Reform insists that it "takes pride in its stringent vetting of donations."
When the party got together in the same West Midlands venue a year ago, they were an insurgency provoking intrigue and attention and demonstrating plenty of momentum.
Indeed that momentum was so significant that it was a major factor, perhaps the major factor, in accelerating the demise of Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, because the potential prospect of a Reform government frightened the Labour Party to its core.
Would Starmer, its then desperately unpopular leader, help or hinder their attempts to take on Farage? Hinder was the eventually overwhelming view within Labour, and so Starmer was a goner.
But politics can change, and change quickly. With Starmer out and Burnham in, there is early evidence of some support for Labour picking up. No longer are Reform comfortably leading in all the opinion polls - in some they're not leading at all. Add to this a more confident and prominent Kemi Badenoch leading the Conservatives and the recent rise too of Restore Britain, the outfit set up by the former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. And the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru won and so beat them in the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales respectively. In other words, collectively Reform's opponents appear more energised and popular.
Make no mistake, no party at a UK wide level is popular at the moment, but the scrap appears more evenly matched than it did.
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Figure caption,Watch: 'I firmly believe I have broken no rules,' Farage tells BBC
Into that mix, Reform's continued prominence has brought what prominence always brings: scrutiny. Nigel Farage is a candidate for prime minister; his senior team candidates for the great offices of state.
When I interviewed Farage at Reform HQ yesterday, on the specifics of the £5m gift and the police investigation he maintained they've acted appropriately.
But he offered an insight into how he perceives the hurricane of questions he faces.
"I think what you're seeing is the establishment - in a very coordinated way - fighting back," he claimed.
I suggested he sounded like a conspiracy theorist, implying the whole world was out to get him.
His answer was instructive: "When you read in the newspaper you're under investigation, and you don't even know a complaint's been made, you can see the degree of collusion that has gone on between interested parties. This will not stop. They will continually try and do this to us."
Who's they? I pressed. He mentioned the House of Commons and House of Lords – full of his political opponents – but didn't name anyone or anything else.
"I'm talking about normal human behaviour. People who, people who hold positions of power, influence, and money don't want new kids on the block succeeding."
Let's be clear – it is a big claim to allege collusion between institutions or organisations collectively seeking to undermine him and his party, and there is no evidence for it.
But, crucially, you hear in his answer a sense of why he perceives that - that is what it feels like.
The question, as Reform's conference gets under way, is how the party approaches the coming days and the coming months.
Will Nigel Farage ditch the "aggrieved" tone he has been accused of adopting recently?
Reform up against 'complainants' society', Farage tells BBC
- Published8 hours ago
Yes, his clear hint to me.
"I've generally, you know, gone through politics with a smile…I'll go back to doing what I've been doing for the last 34 years," he said.
And as for their pitch to you at conference? A Reform government would achieve, and achieve quickly, they claim.
The party is promising a list of promises it would deliver in the first 100 days of a majority government, with every senior minister in a Farage government making and delivering one clear pledge.
But would they be able to if there is validity in their current claim that plenty of institutions are trying to stymie them?
Where does this unorthodox by-election victory leave Nigel Farage?
- Published14 August
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