House map roughly as favorable to GOP as 2018’s, despite redistricting: Analysis

Campaign House map roughly as favorable to GOP as 2018’s, despite redistricting: Analysis Comments: by Ashleigh Fields - 07/27/26 4:34 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Ashleigh Fields - 07/27/26 4:34 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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A new analysis says that GOP-led mid-decade redistricting efforts have resulted in a map that resembles 2018’s, when Democrats won the majority in the House.

“There’s no question that 2025-2026 mid-cycle redistricting made the overall U.S. House map more Republican-leaning than it was in 2024. The median House seat based on presidential performance, a shorthand way to measure the bias of the overall House map, became roughly 2 points more Republican, and we project Republicans to net a handful of seats from redistricting alone,” Kyle Kondik wrote in his analysis for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“But even after these redistricting changes, the 2026 map is not more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map was,” he added.

Kondik noted that new maps may even be “less favorable,” assessing that the differences between the two years are “small.”

He says there’s clearly a Republican lean in districts but suggests that it’s a “bit more muted” as 10 congressional state maps were redrawn ahead of midterm elections.

President Trump has encouraged more GOP-led states to undertake the effort while questioning election security nationwide.

Numbers cited by Kondik show that there are 16 fewer districts where Republicans won the presidential election with an 11-point advantage than in 2018.

There are four fewer districts where Republicans won with an advantage of between 2 points and 4 points.

Kondik’s analysis says the 2026 map is “very slightly better” for Democrats than it was eight years ago.

“None of this should be taken to suggest that we think Democrats are going to do better in 2026 than 2018 (at this point we don’t think they will, even though we continue to favor Democrats to win the majority),” he writes.

“There’s much more than just the map that goes into producing the actual House results. And however Democrats perform in this election, it’s very likely that they would have done better had there been no redistricting this cycle,” he continued.

Add as preferred source on Google Tags Center for Politics Donald Trump Donald Trump Larry Sabato mid-decade redistricting Midterm elections Sabato's Crystal Ball

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