The Chicago Cubs will be in the playoffs for the second straight season (magic number is one), but they still have to keep pushing to earn the National League's top wild-card spot and the WC Round home series that brings – just as they earned it in 2025. After dropping the opener, the Cubbies really can't afford another home loss tonight against eliminated Miami. It's a 7:40 ET first pitch from Wrigley Field in the team's penultimate regular-season game there. Bet $5+ on any of Wednesday's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
You may have noticed that there were really windy conditions around the majors on Tuesday, and it will be more of the same Wednesday. That will be the case at Wrigley again, as here's the weather.com forecast: Cloudy. High near 65F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. There is heavy early action on the Chicago moneyline and on Over 7 runs.
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Marlins vs. Cubs MLB same-game parlay
- Chicago money line
- Under 1.5 second-inning runs
- Alt Under 9.5
DrafKings SGP price: +131 (subject to change)
Miami was eliminated from wild-card contention over the weekend so is simply playing for pride under second-year manager Clayton McCullough, who should be back in 2027 even if the team didn't improve this year from 79 wins in 2025. The team has already landed Over its spring win total of 72.5.
Two key guys are currently out in outfielder Owen Casssie – a one-time top Cubs prospect – and closer Pete Fairbanks. If there is something individual to watch on the Marlins in their final few games, it's the chances of All-Star shortstop Otto Lopez winning the NL batting crown and reaching 200 hits.
Lopez leads the majors with 186 (he was priced +30000 to do so in the spring) but is third in the NL in batting average at .304, 10 points behind leader Luis Arraez of the Phillies. Arraez was the last Miami batting champion in 2023. McCullough hinted that he might hit Lopez at leadoff the rest of the way to get him more potential at-bats and the shot at 200 hits. Lopez hit second in Tuesday's win and had one hit. He's not getting to 200.
Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14 ERA) takes the mound tonight, and he's 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three September outings. The converted reliever isn't a threat to go more than six innings, if even that deep. He faced the Cubs on Sept. 5 in Miami and was hammered for five runs and 10 hits over 5.2 innings of a loss. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 4.7 innings, 4.1 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs tonight.
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Entering play Wednesday, the Cubs, Padres and Phillies are tied for the NL's top wild card spot at 87-70 (none have clinched an actual playoff spot), but Chicago wins the head-to-head tiebreaker over both. The Cubbies are thus are -185 favorites for the No. 4 seed, with San Diego +300 and Philly +500.
After Thursday's series finale against the Marlins, the Cubs finish with three games at the Red Sox – and Boston is locked into the AL's No. 2 wild card spot. San Diego is at the Dodgers tonight and tomorrow and closes with three vs. Arizona. Philadelphia is home to Milwaukee tonight and Thursday and finishes with three vs. Tampa Bay, which is locked into the AL's top seed.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, they will not have star third baseman Alex Bregman (.262, 26 HR, 89 RBI) the rest of the regular season, and it's a race for him to be ready early next week for the Wild-Card Round. Bregman took a foul-ball line-drive off his face while standing in the on-deck circle at Wrigley on Sunday and suffered fractures. Bregman won't need surgery, though. Bregman's fWAR tally is fifth in the NL, and he has really hit since the All-Star break.
Right-hander Kevin Gausman, a trade acquisition from Toronto who was targeted just for big games like this, takes the mound tonight. Gausman had been one of the MLB's top starters from 2021-25 but struggled with the Jays this year and hasn't been better with the Cubs at 4-2 with a 5.04 ERA in eight starts.
The 35-year-old has hinted that a deep playoff run last year with Toronto might be the culprit. In his first 12 seasons, Gausman totaled 25⅔ innings in the playoffs. Last year alone, he totaled 30⅔. In 2024, when the Jays missed the playoffs, Gausman started his offseason regimen Oct. 28. But he was still pitching in the World Series last year at that point.
''So I threw for over a year, threw the most pitches in all of baseball, most starts in all of baseball, most innings,' Gausman said to the Chicago media. ''You've got to give yourself a little bit of grace when it comes to the workload that I had last year. My 13th year, I made it to the World Series. So for 12 years, I had one way of doing the offseason. I've been in a lot of postseasons but never made it very far.''
Back on May 27 in Toronto, Gausman allowed one run over five hits in a no-decision against the Marlins. The model projects him at 5.7 innings, 5.6 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. Lopez is 4-for-6 career off him.
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Look, I'm used to the Marlins breaking the Cubs' hearts -- hello, 2003 NLCS. But Chicago just can't lose this game with everything to play for and against a bad starting pitcher. Gausman has been a big-game pitcher in the past, and the model has Cubbies by a full run. These Under 1.5 second-inning plays are rocking. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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