Week 1 in the NFL was a fun one because all of the defenses failed to show up. Sunday alone featured the highest combined points per game (53.3) in Week 1 of NFL history, per CBS Sports Research, headlined by the Chicago Bears defeating the Carolina Panthers, 59-37. I mean, I had the Over in that game, but I didn't expect Ben Johnson to cover it by himself.
As far as my picks went, our top pick in the Pittsburgh Steelers covering six points against the Atlanta Falcons hit. I even called the final score at 20-13. We knew the Minnesota Vikings would defeat the Green Bay Packers, whether they had Kyler Murray or not, and that the Las Vegas Raiders would beat the Miami Dolphins by at least three points. What we missed was the primetime games, as I was on both the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. Those two defenses were incredibly disappointing.
Overall, we went 3-2 on best bets, 8-8 ATS and 11-5 straight up. That's not good enough. They say Week 1 is a liar, and it's our job to decipher what's real and what's fake from last week. Let's jump into it.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 3-2 Overall ATS record: 8-8 Straight up record: 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
This isn't really a pick backing the Philadelphia Eagles as much as it's a pick fading the Tennessee Titans. In his Titans coaching debut, Robert Saleh lost by 13 points to his former team, the New York Jets. Yes, there's a team that lost to the New York Jets by 13 points.
The Titans were definitely one of the worst teams in Week 1, and the way they failed in all three aspects of the game was shocking. The supposedly stout defensive line got pushed around by the Jets. Seriously, there was one drive where New York went 74 yards on 19 plays, taking 11:48 off the clock. I think Geno Smith attempted just three passes on that possession. Offensively, Titans quarterback Cam Ward was petrified to part ways with the pigskin. Credit to him for not turning the ball over, I guess, but he just didn't want to throw to his wide receivers the few times they were actually open. Ward threw for 140 yards and a garbage-time touchdown, but those stats were wildly inflated. He had 32 passing yards at halftime.
Since Eagles fans know they have an easy win coming, their fan base has already taken over Music City. I saw a video of a dude with green hair doing push-ups at BNA baggage claim on Thursday while leading an E-A-G-L-E-S chant. This past Sunday at Nissan Stadium felt like a new low, but that new low could be surpassed on Sunday with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley coming to town. The Eagles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a win, so I'm backing them here.
The pick: Eagles -7 Projected score: Eagles 28-14
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Speaking of the Jets, let's jump on them as a home dog in Week 2. I'm not sure New York is going to be some sleeper in the AFC, but I do know this team can be relatively competitive and that the fan base is juiced for the first time in years.
I had the Vikings beating the Packers as my No. 2 best bet last week, and I didn't even flinch when Kyler Murray went down with his unfortunate injury. I was so low on the Packers that I thought Carson Wentz had a legitimate chance to win -- and I was right! Granted, I didn't know it was going to take 29 unanswered points in what I believe was the craziest game of Week 1, but we got there.
I'll reiterate my points from last week: The Packers' best offensive player is on the commissioner's exempt list, their best defensive player is on the PUP list, and their offensive line is not good. The Vikings racked up 15 QB hits and four sacks last Sunday. I don't think I'll pull the trigger on the Jets to win straight up, but give me those 3.5 points.
The pick: Jets +3.5 Projected score: Packers 23-21
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I was excited for Baker Mayfield's first press conference of Cleveland Browns week, but he was relatively mild-mannered. When asked about his time in Cleveland, he said, "Ultimately, you remember the good more so than the bad." What?! That's not the Baker Mayfield I know and love. I bet he's holding in his emotions until game time. Kevin Stefanski may no longer be roaming the sidelines, but Andrew Berry -- the general manager who traded for Deshaun Watson -- is still employed.
Mayfield actually started against the Browns once during his short stint in Carolina. The Panthers lost that game by two points after Cade York nailed a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. I bet Mayfield is motivated not only to register his first win against his former team, but also get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into the win column.
The Bucs lost by six points to the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday thanks to four turnovers. Mayfield lost three fumbles and threw zero touchdowns. The Browns, on the other hand, lost by 24 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'll take a double-digit win for Tampa.
The pick: Buccaneers -8.5 Projected score: Buccaneers 30-13
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Bears head coach Ben Johnson clearly wants to score 60 points a game. That 59-37 win against Carolina was wild, as Caleb Williams accounted for four total touchdowns, while D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both crossed 100 yards rushing and found the end zone. Obviously, I'm not expecting that kind of output vs. a Brian Flores-led defense, but the uncertainty around the Vikings quarterback situation has me a bit worried. If it's Kyler Murray, we don't know how he will look (he threw a bad interception in limited action last week), and he's coming back from a scary head injury. This number is too low, give me the Bears.
The pick: Bears -4.5 Projected score: Bears 27-20
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
I don't think Kyle Shanahan will try to run up the score on the lowly Dolphins, but is it inevitable? The Raiders covered this number vs. Miami in Week 1, while the San Francisco 49ers defeated the preseason Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams by 20.
We know that the 49ers are a better team than the Dolphins on paper. In fact, let's talk about that for a second. The Dolphins actually had the least-experienced roster by any team to open a season since at least 2000; they have just one player with a Pro Bowl appearance, and 60.7% of their salary cap is devoted to players no longer on the roster. This is the youngest roster in the NFL (25.2) and features the most undrafted players (18) and rookies (14). So what this pick comes down to on Sunday are those 13.5 points.
The 49ers have had ample rest and are playing in their home opener. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are making their second trip to the West Coast in as many weeks. San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a double-digit favorite, including four straight ATS wins as a double-digit favorite. I'm sure Brock Purdy will put on a show vs. this inexperienced secondary.
The pick: 49ers -13.5 Projected score: 49ers 30-14
Other Week 2 picks
Bills (-4.5) 36-30 over Lions Patriots 16-13 over Steelers (+5.5) Ravens 28-24 over Saints (+8.5) Falcons (+2.5) 26-22 over Panthers Texans (-2.5) 27-23 over Bengals Chargers 21-20 over Raiders (+6.5) Jaguars (+2.5) 24-23 over Broncos Cardinals (+3.5) 20-17 over Seahawks Cowboys (-3.5) 30-26 over Commanders Chiefs (-6.5) 24-17 over Colts Rams (-7) 30-21 over Giants
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