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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate in the Lone Star State, is trailing Democrat James Talarico by two points in new polling of the closely watched race.
A survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found Talarico leading with 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent, just within the margin of error. Another 6 percent were undecided, and 2 percent chose another candidate.
Talarico was viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent of voters in the poll, while Paxton was viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 57 percent. Only 7 and 4 percent, respectively, said they didn’t know enough about the candidates to form an opinion.
The new results come just days after a Fox News poll showed Talarico up by 3 points over Paxton, the latest encouraging sign for Democrats as they eye a rare Senate flip in the red state.
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the race a toss-up, forecasting that Paxton is only narrowly favored to win in November and keep the seat in Republican hands.
Paxton won a tough primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) earlier this year with the help of an endorsement from President Trump, who easily won Texas in each of his three elections. But Paxton has faced a string of scandals, including a 2023 impeachment in the state House on corruption and bribery charges before he was acquitted in the state Senate.
While Republicans are bullish that Trump’s support can push Paxton over the finish line, Democrats hope that the Republican’s controversies, coupled with enthusiasm for Talarico, can help tilt the race in their favor as the general election nears.
In the Texas Southern University poll, Trump was viewed unfavorably by 55 percent of Texans likely to vote in November, compared to 44 percent who viewed him favorably.
The survey was conducted July 27-30 among 1,200 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the general, and the margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percent.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Donald Trump Donald Trump James Talarico Ken Paxton Ken Paxton midterms 2026 Texas Senate raceCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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